Horses to Watch: 2 to keep an eye on at Belmont Park

In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson will share promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

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First Captain

Could we see the champion three-year-old male of 2021 in action this weekend? First Captain might not be a household name just yet, but the beautifully bred chestnut looked like something special in his debut sprinting seven furlongs at Belmont Park last month.

First Captain really had no business visiting the winner’s circle in his first start under colors. Trainer Shug McGaughey isn’t known for cranking his runners to win on debut, and First Captain is a son of Curlin out of a the graded stakes-winning A.P. Indy mare America, so his pedigree is geared strongly toward stamina more than speed.

But apparently no one told these facts to First Captain. After chasing the early pace, the $1.5 million yearling dropped back around the turn, but re-rallied boldly down the homestretch to gain 3 1/2 lengths and prevail by three-quarters of a length. Nor was First Captain’s late surge an illusion; he dashed the final furlong in a rapid :11.95 and earned a strong 104 Brisnet Late Pace rating.

First Captain will step up in class and stretch out in distance for Saturday’s third race at Belmont Park, a one-mile allowance event (post time 2:02 p.m. ET). He’ll face five rivals, including a few capable older horses with experience running long.

In theory, this could be a tough spot for First Captain. But I suspect he’s a star in the making—indeed, maybe even a future champion—and I’m expecting another impressive victory. Keep in mind, McGaughey wins at a lofty 25% rate with horses running long for the first time.

Happy Saver

The wait is over. After spending 7 1/2 months on the sidelines, the undefeated Happy Saver will kick off his four-year-old campaign in Friday’s third race at Belmont Park, a one-mile allowance optional claiming event (post time 2:02 p.m. ET).

Happy Saver showed serious talent in four starts for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher last season. After romping to victory in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Belmont Park, Happy Saver stretched out over 1 1/8 miles and employed pace-tracking tactics to win a Saratoga allowance race and Laurel Park’s Federico Tesio Stakes with triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings.

But Happy Saver elevated his game to another level in the 1 1/4-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), his final start of the year. Racing professionally inside and behind rivals, Happy Saved bided his time behind a slow pace, then battled through a narrow opening along the rail to defeat future Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Mystic Guide and 2019 Belmont (G1) runner-up Tacitus by three-quarters of a length.