Horses to Watch: 2 new names – and 1 to drop
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
Early Voting is a son of Horse of the Year and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Gun Runner out of a mare by Horse of the Year and two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow. It’s safe to say Early Voting has the pedigree to improve with maturity and thrive over classic distances.
That’s why I was excited to see Early Voting win his debut racing a one-turn mile at Aqueduct last Saturday. After dueling for command through splits of 23.23 and 47.19 seconds, the 2-year-old Chad Brown trainee drove to the finish line on top by 1 1/2 lengths in 1:38.41 seconds.
Early Voting’s final time wasn’t especially quick, but if he improves as expected with distance and maturity, we could be looking at a Road to the Kentucky Derby contender in the making. The 1 1/8-mile Withers (G3) at Aqueduct could be a viable goal.
How talented is Happy Medium? There’s no way to tell just yet, but since returning from a 6 1/2-month layoff, the 3-year-old gelding has been unbeatable and untouchable.
Third in his debut back in March, Happy Medium ran out of his skin when returning to action in a six-furlong maiden special weight on Sept. 30 at Belmont Park, leading all the way to trounce his pursuers by 9 1/4 lengths. He was similarly dominant in a six-furlong allowance on Nov. 13 at Aqueduct, pressing the early pace before drawing off to win by five lengths.
But Happy Medium ran his best race yet last Saturday at Aqueduct. Favored at 3-5 to win a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer, the son of Runhappy carved out fast fractions of 22.14, 45.05 and 1:09.30 seconds on his way to a seven-length victory in 1:15.88 seconds, earning a 103 Beyer speed figure.
Clearly, Happy Medium is developing into quite a racehorse for trainer Michelle Nevin. Runhappy was a champion sprinter, and Happy Medium could be progressing on a similar path. The 2022 Carter Handicap (G1) at Aqueduct looks like a logical target.
Off the Watch List
Marr Time
The 2-year-old filly Marr Time was favored at 4-5 to win a six-furlong allowance optional claimer on Sunday at Oaklawn Park. Some of this support was because of her pedigree – she’s a half-sibling to four-time Eclipse Award winner Beholder, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Mendelssohn and leading sire Into Mischief. But Marr Time also drew support thanks to a sharp debut win at Keeneland.
Unfortunately, Marr Time failed to meet expectations at Oaklawn. She didn’t get off to the best start, and after recovering to press fractions of 22.22 and 46.15 seconds, Marr Time gave way to finish last by 20 1/4 lengths.
Maybe this disappointing run was a fluke – Marr Time clearly ran below form compared with her debut victory. But I’ll want to see her bounce back with a stronger effort before returning her to my watch list.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.