Horses to Watch: Know these 26 names as Keeneland opens

In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

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Adare Manor

A 13-length winner of the Las Virgenes (G3), Adare Manor will be tough to catch while facing only four rivals in Saturday’s fourth race at Santa Anita, the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) (post time 4:30 p.m. EDT). The daughter of Uncle Mo is 2-for-2 running long and easily tops the field from a Brisnet Speed Rating standpoint.

Club Car

Club Car has the appearance of a live longshot in Saturday’s seventh race at Keeneland, the Madison (G1) (post time 3:55 p.m.). The consistent mare has cracked the trifecta in nine straight races, including eight stakes, and prepped with a solid runner-up effort in Turfway Park’s Queen on Tapeta. Returning to dirt should put Club Car in the hunt for a strong finish.

Dean’s List

Dean’s List didn’t quite see out one mile when finishing second in the Gotham (G3) last month, but the speedy son of Speightstown is 2-for-2 sprinting and looks formidable while cutting back to seven furlongs for Saturday’s 11th race at Aqueduct, the Bay Shore (G3) (post time 6:29 p.m.).

Early Voting

Early Voting couldn’t have been much more impressive in the Withers (G3) racing 1 1/8 miles, leading all the way to beat next-out Rebel (G2) winner Un Ojo by 4 1/2 lengths. Early Voting will stick to the same track and distance for Saturday’s eighth race at Aqueduct, the Wood Memorial (G2) (post time 4:45 p.m.), where he looms among the main win threats.

Emmanuel

A very wide trip cost Emmanuel any serious shot at victory in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream last month, but he nevertheless battled on to finish fourth in a competitive field. If Emmanuel saves more ground in Saturday’s ninth race at Keeneland, the Blue Grass (G2) (post time 5:10 p.m.), he can potentially challenge for victory.

First Captain

A last-minute rally carried First Captain to victory off a long layoff in a seven-furlong allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park last month. Last year’s Dwyer (G3) winner will stick to the same distance for Saturday’s ninth race at Aqueduct, the Carter Handicap (G1) (post time 5:21 p.m.). First Captain’s pedigree suggests seven furlongs might be a little shorter than his best distance, but if a fast pace unfolds, he’s bound to be closing ground strongly down the homestretch.

Forbidden Kingdom

Can Forbidden Kingdom stretch his blinding speed over 1 1/8 miles? He had no trouble handling 1 1/16 miles when wiring Santa Anita’s San Felipe (G2) by 5 3/4 lengths last month, so they’ll have to catch Forbidden Kingdom to beat him in Saturday’s sixth race at Santa Anita, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) (post time 5:30 p.m.). And the catching part may prove tricky.

Going Global

Victorious in half a dozen stakes last season, including the Del Mar Oaks (G1), Going Global will kick off her 4-year-old campaign in Saturday’s seventh race at Santa Anita, the Royal Heroine (G2) (post time 4:00 p.m.). She has a serious turn of foot and should be tough to deny while facing only four rivals.

Golden Pal

Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner looms as an odds-on favorite to win Saturday’s eighth race at Keeneland, the Shakertown (G2) (post time 4:30 p.m.). Golden Pal is 5-for-5 in U.S. turf sprints and boasts a 2-for-2 record at Keeneland, so his terrific early speed is likely to win the day.

Just Might

Golden Pal’s stiffest competition in the Shakertown may come from Just Might, who won seven stakes last year. Just Might has pacesetting speed and rarely runs an off race, so a top-three finish at Keeneland is within reach.

Lady Rocket

Lady Rocket came to hand impressively last fall for trainer Brad Cox, wrapping up the year with a nine-length romp in the Go For Wand Handicap (G3). She’ll kick off 2022 in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland, where Lady Rocket’s abundant tactical speed stamps her as a viable win threat under jockey Irad Ortiz.

Matareya

The final Road to the Kentucky Oaks prep race of the 2021-22 season is Sunday’s eighth race at Keeneland, the Beaumont (G3) (post time 4:44 p.m.). The approximately seven-furlong sprint looks like a perfect opportunity for Matareya to rejoin the stakes ranks. The Brad Cox trainee was tons the best in a six-furlong allowance at Fair Grounds on Feb. 26, leading all the way to score by 5 1/4 lengths, and her Brisnet Speed Ratings look competitive against Sunday’s field.

Messier

If anyone can catch Forbidden Kingdom in the Santa Anita Derby, it’s surely Messier, who trounced the 1 1/16-mile Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita by 15 lengths. The son of Empire Maker is bred to run long and improve with maturity, so it’s noteworthy that Messier defeated Forbidden Kingdom by 3 1/2 lengths in the seven-furlong Bob Hope (G3) last year.

Mo Donegal

Early Voting isn’t the only Wood Memorial entrant boasting a graded win over the track and distance. Mo Donegal can claim the same, having overcome a slow pace to win the 1 1/8-mile Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct last fall. He also ran strongly when third behind future Florida Derby (G1) winner White Abarrio in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park two months ago, so Mo Donegal looks formidable in the Wood Memorial.

Morello

Wood Memorial entrant Morello is unproven racing around two turns, but he was much the best in Aqueduct’s one-mile Grade 3 Gotham (G3) last month, pressing the pace before kicking on to win by 4 1/2 lengths. The Steve Asmussen trainee just keeps getting better and warrants respect while stretching out in distance.

Nashville

In the autumn of 2020, Nashville dominated Keeneland’s six-furlong Perryville in the still-standing track-record time of 1:07.89 seconds. He showed flashes of similar form when dominating an allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn last month, so Nashville has to be viewed as a key win threat in Saturday’s fifth race at Keeneland, the Commonwealth (G3) (post time 2:45 p.m.).

Nest

Nest has been on a roll for trainer Todd Pletcher, defeating future stakes winner Venti Valentine in Aqueduct’s Demoiselle (G2) before trouncing the Suncoast at Tampa Bay Downs by six lengths. Off these impressive victories, Nest is the logical morning line favorite to nab Friday’s ninth race at Keeneland, the Ashland (G1) (post time 5:16 p.m.).

O Besos

If Nashville falters in the Commonwealth, O Besos can pick up the pieces. Fifth across the finish line in the 2021 Kentucky Derby, O Besos was compromised by a slow early/fast late race shape when finishing fourth in a strong renewal of the Mineshaft (G3) at Fair Grounds two months ago. He’s bound to encounter a quicker pace in the Commonwealth, so cutting back in distance might be his ticket to success.

Rattle N Roll

Fast finishing fractions made it difficult for Rattle N Roll to close meaningful ground in the Louisiana Derby (G2) two weeks ago. However, a fast early pace helped Rattle N Roll post a blowout victory in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland last fall, so if he encounters a quick tempo while returning to Keeneland for the Blue Grass, Rattle N Roll can outrun his 8-1 morning line odds.

Reinvestment Risk

The multiple Grade 1-placed Reinvestment Risk recently returned from a long layoff to dominate an allowance optional claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Gulfstream. The Chad Brown trainee combines tactical speed with tractability and looms among the key contenders to win the Carter Handicap.

Smile Happy

Fresh off a runner-up effort against a deep field in the Risen Star (G2), Smile Happy looms as a formidable win threat in the Blue Grass. The son of Runhappy won his debut at Keeneland last fall and followed up with a runaway victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), where he easily defeated future Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Classic Causeway and Florida Derby (G1) winner White Abarrio.

Speaker’s Corner

Speaker’s Corner has been in red-hot form at Gulfstream this winter, defeating recent Ghostzapper (G3) winner Fearless in both the Fred W. Hooper (G3) and the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2). Speaker’s Corner will cut back from one mile to seven furlongs for the Carter Handicap and figures to be tough, especially since he has enough tactical speed to be prominent from the outset in a race without a ton of speed on paper.

Taiba

Taiba was super impressive in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita last month, pulling clear down the homestretch to win by 7 1/2 lengths with an excellent 100 Brisnet Speed Rating. Taiba will step up dramatically in class and distance for the Santa Anita Derby, but he clearly has a lot of raw talent and may be capable of securing a top-three finish.

Tobys Heart

After competing admirably without winning in several stakes over one mile or farther, Tobys Heart will cut back in distance for Saturday’s first race at Santa Anita, the Monrovia (G2) (post time 3:00 p.m.). Sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the downhill turf course should suit Tobys Heart just fine, considering she’s 4-for-4 racing 6 1/2 furlongs or shorter.

Twilight Gleaming

Last fall, Twilight Gleaming beat male rivals in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2). She’ll endeavor to do so again when starting her season in Sunday’s seventh race at Keeneland, the Palisades (post time 4:12 p.m.). The 5 1/2-furlong grass dash appears ripe for conquest by Twilight Gleaming, who signaled her fitness when breezing half a mile from the Turfway Park starting gate in 46.2 seconds last month.

Zandon

Zandon probably wasn’t cranked for a peak performance in the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds two months ago, but he nevertheless rallied to finish third, beaten only half a length for second place by Smile Happy. If Zandon moves forward in his second run of the season, he’ll have every chance to nab a top-three finish (and maybe even a victory) in the Blue Grass.

Which horses do you have your eyes on this week?