Horses to Watch: 22 to follow during Kentucky Derby week
Recent Watch List winners
Tracked the pace in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at Churchill Downs, then took command inside the furlong marker to score by 3 1/4 lengths. The daughter of Midshipman is now 2-for-2 under the care of trainer Wesley Ward and is surely bound for Royal Ascot.
Worth another try
Gave way after setting the pace to finish ninth in the Unbridled Sidney Stakes at Churchill Downs, her second straight defeat over less-than-firm turf. It’s possible the daughter of City Zip has gone off form, but I’ll keep her on my watch list until I see how she performs back on firm turf.
Faded from a pace-tracking position to finish seventh in the Opening Verse Stakes at Churchill Downs, but I don’t think the rain-dampened turf course was to his liking. I’ll give the speedy son of Sepoy another try when he returns to firm turf.
Upcoming entries
Undefeated in three starts, Annex will seek his third stakes victory in a row in Saturday’s ninth race at Churchill Downs, the American Turf (G2, post time 3:40 p.m. EDT). The son of Constitution has a sharp turn-of-foot, and the horse he beat in the Palm Beach Stakes two starts back – Scarlett Sky – came right back to win the Transylvania (G3).
Talented Godolphin homebred capitalized on a slow pace to wire the The Very One (G3) by 2 1/4 lengths, counting subsequent two-time graded stakes winner War Like Goddess among her beaten rivals. Antoinette looms as the lone speed in Saturday’s 10th race at Belmont Park, the Sheepshead Bay (G2, post time 5:37 p.m. EDT) and will be tough to catch if she shakes loose on an easy lead.
Back from a winter layoff, Aunt Pearl looms as a heavy favorite in Friday’s seventh race at Churchill Downs, the Edgewood (G2, post time 2:09 p.m. EDT). Last year’s runaway Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) champion has never been headed in three starts and broke her maiden over the Churchill Down grass last summer, so it’s easy to understand why’s she’s favored at 4-5 for the Edgewood.
Never out of the exacta in four starts, Clairiere is a logical contender in Friday’s 11th race at Churchill Downs, the Kentucky Oaks (G1, post time 5:51 p.m. EDT). The daughter of Curlin is bred to improve with maturity and didn’t get a ton of pace to chase when second in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione takes the mount for two-time Kentucky Oaks-winning trainer Steve Asmussen.
The Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) hero possesses a wicked turn-of-foot and will be tough to deny in Saturday’s 11th race at Churchill Downs, the Turf Classic (G1, post time 5:27 p.m. EDT). Just check out his recent victory in the Muniz Memorial (G2) at Fair Grounds, where he rocketed the final three furlongs in about :33.50 to win comfortably. That’s racehorse time.
The Shug McGaughey trainee will stretch back out over 1 1/16 miles in Friday’s seventh race at Belmont Park, an allowance optional claiming event (post time 3:54 p.m. EDT). The stoutly bred son of Honor Code recently returned from a layoff to finish fourth in a six-furlong allowance sprint at Gulfstream but is 2-for-2 running long. With a sharpener under his belt, he’ll be formidable on Friday.
A powerful debut winner sprinting at Santa Anita, Dream Shake lost ground from the eighth pole to the wire in both the San Felipe (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), finishing third each time. He stands to take a big step forward when cutting back to a one-turn mile in Saturday’s eighth race at Churchill Downs, the Pat Day Mile (G2). There should be plenty of pace to chase, and the competition looks a bit easier.
Highly Motivated might be 0-for-2 this season, but he was beaten only a neck by Essential Quality in the Blue Grass (G2) and figures to move forward off that effort. If he does, Highly Motivated can challenge for victory in Saturday’s 12th race at Churchill Downs, the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Chad Brown has earned purse money with three of his five Derby starters, and drawing post 17 should allow Highly Motivated to secure a clean stalking trip. I’m confident he’ll run a big race.
The versatile Louisiana Derby (G2) hero Hot Rod Charlie has run only twice this year, so he might be entering the Kentucky Derby on the verge of a career-best effort. Trainer Doug O’Neill has enjoyed strong success with this two-prep approach to the Derby, winning the roses with I’ll Have Another (2012) and Nyquist (2016).
The runaway Florida Derby (G1) winner is bred to relish racing 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby, which is also evident from the way he sprinted the final three furlongs of the Florida Derby in a rapid :36.59. He’s made great progress since adding blinkers but will have to avoid getting buried in traffic while breaking from the rail.
Undefeated in four starts, Malathaat impressed me when overcoming a slow pace to win the Ashland (G1) with a sharp turn-of-foot. The daughter of Curlin sprinted the final 5/16 in :29.54 and has the potential to improve with a better pace setup in the Kentucky Oaks.
Last year’s Belmont Oaks (G1) winner endured a troubled trip when finishing seventh in the Hillsborough (G2) to kick off 2020. Nevertheless, she was only beaten 1 3/4 lengths and should appreciate stretching out over 1 3/8-miles in the Sheepshead Bay.
Ran 40 feet (five lengths) farther than Rock Your World in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), so you can argue a wide trip cost Medina Spirit the victory. If he can save a bit more ground in the Kentucky Derby, he has the potential to outrun expectations for six-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert.
Former French campaigner unleashed a powerful stretch kick to win the 1 3/8-mile Long Island (G3) at Aqueduct last November. If not for a troubled trip in the Oct. 31 Zagora Stakes, the daughter of Nathaniel would likely be undefeated in two U.S. starts. With her impressive turn-of-foot, she’ll be a threat down the homestretch of the Sheepshead Bay.
Paris Lights displayed Grade 1 form when battling to victory in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) last summer, so I’m optimistic she can factor in Friday’s eighth race at Churchill Downs, the La Troienne (G1, post time 3:03 p.m. EDT). She kicked off 2021 with a wide-running win in the seven-furlong Distaff Handicap (G3), and stretching back out in distance should work wonders for the stoutly bred daughter of Curlin.
Although she’s 20-1 on the morning line for the Kentucky Oaks, Pauline’s Pearl was a comfortable winner of the Fantasy (G3) and didn’t get a fair pace setup when finishing second in the Honeybee (G3). Steve Asmussen’s second entrant can be in the mix if she works out a clean, ground-saving trip from the rail draw.
The defection of front-running Caddo River leaves Rock Your World with a straightforward strategy for the Kentucky Derby: Break sharply and try to lead all the way. Wire-to-wire tactics worked just fine for Rock Your World in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and since the son of Candy Ride never has encountered dirt kickback, sprinting to the front and staying out of trouble might be his best strategy.
After finishing just a head behind Annex in the Palm Beach Stakes, Scarlett Sky unleashed a terrific rally to win the Transylvania (G3), sprinting the final 5/16 in :28.86 over a good course to win by half a length. He’ll be dangerous while getting a rematch with Annex in the American Turf, though he’ll have to avoid a wide trip from post 13.
The third-place finisher from the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) has struggled a bit since stretching out around two turns, so I’m excited to see her cut back to seven furlongs for Friday’s ninth race at Churchill Downs, the Eight Belles (G2, post time 4:04 p.m. ET). She’s 2-for-2 over this distance and figures to produce a sharper finish while returning to her seemingly preferred conditions.
Aside from a neck defeat in the Rachel Alexandra (G2), when she arguably struck the front too soon and lost focus, Travel Column has been perfect since winning Churchill’s Golden Rod (G2) last fall. A decisive 2 3/4-length victory in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) has stamped Travel Column as a major threat in the Kentucky Oaks, where she’ll seek to give trainer Brad Cox his third Kentucky Oaks win in four years.
Fresh off a fast-finishing maiden victory sprinting seven furlongs at Santa Anita, Bob Baffert’s Triple Tap will make his first start against winners in Saturday’s 13th race at Churchill Downs, a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claiming race (post time 7:55 p.m. EDT). You can argue the distance might be a little short for the son of Tapit, who counts 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah as his half-brother. But on talent alone, Triple Tap warrants respect.
Zofelle has taken a nice step forward this season, producing big rallies to win the Marshua’s River (G3) and finish second by a nose in the Honey Fox (G3). The latter race unfolded at a pedestrian early tempo, so if Zofelle gets a quicker pace to work with in Saturday’s sixth race at Churchill Downs, the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2, post time 1:14 p.m. EDT), she can turn the tables on Honey Fox heroine Got Stormy.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.