Horses to Watch: 20 are entered Belmont Stakes week
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
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Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Aloha West is facing a small but tough field in Saturday’s ninth race at Belmont Park, the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) (post time 4:43 p.m. EDT). But the son of Hard Spun ran well in his 2022 debut, finishing third in a slow-paced renewal of the Churchill Downs (G1) after racing closer to the early lead than usual. If he encounters a quicker pace in his second run of the season, Aloha West can step forward at a nice price.
Can Bleecker Street keep her unbeaten record intact while stepping up against top-class competition in Friday’s 10th race at Belmont Park, the New York (G1) (post time 5:50 p.m.)? Her talented stablemates Rougir and Virginia Joy (see below) are serious challengers, but Bleecker Street is 6-for-6 so far with a trio of graded wins under her belt, including a fast-finishing score in the Modesty (G3) at Churchill Downs last month. Don’t dismiss Bleecker Street from win consideration under hot jockey Irad Ortiz.
Bright Future was much the best in his debut racing one mile at Gulfstream Park back in March, tracking the early pace before seizing command to win by 4 3/4 lengths with a flashy 100 Brisnet Speed rating. None of Bright Future’s rivals in Saturday’s second race at Belmont, a one-mile allowance (post time 11:55 a.m.) have ever cracked the triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating plateau, so Bright Future looms as the horse to beat under hot jockey Irad Ortiz.
Echo Zulu may have suffered her first defeat when finishing fourth in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) last month, but the three-time Grade 1 winner was only beaten three lengths after pressing a solid pace. She’s cutting back to a one-turn mile for Saturday’s third race at Belmont, the Acorn (G1) (post time 12:33 p.m.), the configuration over which she trounced the Grade 1 Frizette last fall. Echo Zulu should have every chance to bounce back to the winner’s circle at Belmont.
Three starts, three effortless victories by double-digit margins. Metropolitan Handicap entrant Flightline has as much raw talent as any horse we’ve seen in recent years, as demonstrated by his 11 1/2-length demolition of the Malibu (G1) at Santa Anita last December. The 4-year-old son of Tapit hasn’t run since, but he’s training up a storm and brings powerful Brisnet Speed ratings to the fold, suggesting he’ll be tough to deny in the Metropolitan.
Just how talented is Jack Christopher? No one has come close to beating the Chad Brown trainee in three starts so far. He dominated the Champagne (G1) at Belmont last fall and kicked off his 2022 campaign with a 3 3/4-length romp in the Pat Day Mile (G2) at Churchill Downs, cementing the son of Munnings as an odds-on favorite to win Saturday’s sixth race at Belmont, the Woody Stephens (G1) (post time 2:22 p.m.).
Reigning Champion Male Sprinter Jackie’s Warrior is 2-for-2 this season, winning the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn before traveling to Churchill for a blowout four-length score in the Churchill Downs (G1). He’s clearly the most accomplished horse entered in Friday’s ninth race at Belmont Park, the True North (G2) (post time 5:17 p.m.) and figures to add another graded win to his record.
In a battle of Eclipse Award winners, last year’s Champion Three-Year-Old Filly Malathaat will square off against reigning Champion Older Dirt Female Letruska in Saturday’s seventh race at Belmont Park, the Ogden Phipps (G1) (post time 3:05 p.m.).
There isn’t much pace in the five-horse field, which could place stretch-running Malathaat at a disadvantage. But the three-time Grade 1 winner kicked off her 4-year-old campaign on a positive note winning the Doubledogdare (G3) at Keeneland and can’t be dismissed as a win contender.
Echo Zulu’s key rival in the Acorn is surely Matareya, who is unbeaten and essentially unchallenged in three starts this season. Matareya is quite versatile in terms of running style and enters off victories in the Beaumont (G3) and Eight Belles (G2), so if she handles stretching out over one mile, Matareya can give Echo Zulu a tussle on Saturday.
Aside from a troubled fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, Mo Donegal hasn’t missed the trifecta in six starts. Along the way, the Todd Pletcher trainee has won the Remsen (G2) and Wood Memorial (G2) over such accomplished rivals as Preakness hero Early Voting and Blue Grass (G1) winner Zandon.
These victories (and his respectable Kentucky Derby finish) stamp Mo Donegal as a key win threat in Saturday’s 11th race at Belmont Park, the Belmont (post time 6:44 p.m.). The 111 Brisnet Speed rating Mo Donegal posted in the Wood Memorial tops the Belmont field, and the son of Uncle Mo should have enough tactical speed to stay within shouting distance of the expected slow pace on Saturday, setting the stage for a winning performance.
Morello was last seen finishing a distant sixth as the favorite in a strong edition of the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial (G2), but a troubled start and a lost shoe compromised his chances and ultimately caused him to miss a start in the Kentucky Derby. Morello had previously posted three easy victories from as many starts, including a 4 1/2-length romp in the Gotham (G3), so he looms as a key challenger to Jack Christopher while cutting back in distance for the Woody Stephens.
It’s been 15 years since trainer Todd Pletcher won the Belmont with Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Rags to Riches. Now Pletcher is back in the Belmont with Kentucky Oaks runner-up Nest, a stoutly bred daughter of Curlin who figures to thrive racing 1 1/2 miles. Nest didn’t get the cleanest trip in the Kentucky Oaks, but dominated the Ashland (G1) two starts back and figures to sit a perfect trip stalking a slow pace in the Belmont. She’s 8-1 on the morning line, but I believe Nest is a legitimate win threat.
After placing multiple times at the Grade 1 level, Obligatory finally picked up a top-level victory in the seven-furlong Derby City Distaff (G1(at Churchill Downs last month, rallying powerfully from last place to defeat a strong field by three-quarters of a length. She’ll stick to the same distance for Friday’s third race at Belmont Park, the Bed o’ Roses (G2) (post time 1:58 p.m.) and has a strong chance to win again.
It’s been five months since Rose Dawson brought her record to a perfect 2-for-2 with a powerful stretch-running victory in the California Cup Oaks racing one mile over the Santa Anita lawn. Only time will tell if the versatile 3-year-old filly can produce a peak effort off the layoff in Saturday’s sixth race at Santa Anita, an about 6 1/2-furlong grass allowance (post time 6:30 p.m.), but the talent Rose Dawson displayed in the California Cup Oaks suggests she can make some noise in California this summer.
The morning line favorite in the New York (G1) is Rougir, who unleashed a powerful turn-of-foot from behind a slow pace to win the 1 1/16-mile Grade 3 Beaugay at Belmont by three lengths. Stretching out over 1 1/4 miles shouldn’t be an issue since she won the 1 1/4-mile Prix de l’Opera Longines (G1) in France last fall, and acclaimed jockey Flavien Prat (an impressive 27 percent winner on grass) retains the mount. There’s a lot to like about Rougir’s chances.
Sandstone looked like a potential star in the making as a 2-year-old at Churchill Downs last year, breaking her maiden by nine lengths before smashing the Rags to Riches by 10 3/4 lengths. Along the way, Sandstone defeated future Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Secret Oath and Fantasy (G3) winner Yuugiri.
Sandstone was subsequently beaten to third place in the Golden Rod (G2) and kicked off 2022 with a subpar seventh-place finish over synthetic in the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park, but she’s eligible to bounce back while returning to dirt and adding Lasix for Saturday’s eighth race at Prairie Meadows, the Panthers (post time 10:20 p.m.). She comes in as the best filly on paper and should be tough to deny if she brings her A-game.
If anyone can challenge Flightline in the Metropolitan, it’s probably Speaker’s Corner. The rapidly improving 4-year-old has rattled off victories in the Fred W. Hooper (G3), Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) and Carter Handicap (G1).
Speaker’s Corner hasn’t run as fast on the Brisnet Speed rating scale as Flightline, but he beat a deep field in the Carter (including next-out Churchill Downs (G1) runner-up Reinvestment Risk) and clearly has a world of talent in his own right. Both Flightline and Speaker’s Corner prefer to race on the lead, so their Saturday showdown should be special.
Seven furlongs might be a hair farther than Tobys Heart wants to run, but the stretch-running sprinter is nevertheless a viable contender in Friday’s 11th race at Belmont Park, the Intercontinental (G3) (post time 6:22 p.m.). She enters fresh off a neck triumph in the 5 1/2-furlong Unbridled Sidney at Churchill Downs and figures to get a solid pace to chase while facing a dozen rivals at Belmont, so don’t dismiss Tobys Heart from win consideration.
Running long distances is clearly a strong suit for Virginia Joy, whose two runs this season have produced a rallying victory in the 1 3/8-mile The Very One (G3) and a pacesetting score in the 1 3/8-mile Sheepshead Bay (G2). She’s cutting back to 1 1/4 miles and facing tougher competition in the New York (G1), but Virginia Joy’s red-hot form can’t be underestimated.
Wit was no match for Jack Christopher when finishing third by 9 3/4 lengths in the Champagne (G1) last fall, but perhaps he can turn the tables in the Woody Stephens (G1). Wit kicked off his sophomore campaign with a stretch-running nose triumph in the seven-furlong Bay Shore (G3) at Aqueduct and will stick to the same distance for the Woody Stephens, opening the door for a competitive showing.
Off the Watch List
No Nay Hudson
Zelenskyy Strong
Which horses do you have your eyes on this week?