Horses to Watch: 1 winner, 2 to keep, 5 in the entries
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
Upcoming Entries
Just how good is Big Invasion? We don’t know yet, because he’s rattled off six consecutive victories (including five stakes) by a minimum of two lengths. No one’s managed to seriously challenge Big Invasion since he ran second in his Jan. 7 debut at Gulfstream Park.
Big Invasion will attempt to keep his momentum rolling in Saturday’s 12th race at Kentucky Downs, the Franklin-Simpson (G2) at 6:55 p.m. EDT. Sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on turf is right in Big Invasion’s wheelhouse, and he enters off a breathtaking three-length victory in the Mahony at Saratoga, so this stretch-running sophomore is the horse to beat under hot jockey Joel Rosario.
Bubble Rock hasn’t competed on turf since finishing a severely troubled 12th in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. But Bubble Rock was only beaten 4 1/2 lengths that day and previously won the Matron (G3) on grass, so returning to the lawn for Sunday’s ninth race at Kentucky Downs, the Music City (post time 5:57 p.m. EDT) may trigger a winning run.
Bubble Rock was last seen finishing third in the April 2 Fantasy (G3) on dirt at Oaklawn Park, one start after romping by 2 1/2 lengths in Turfway Park’s Cincinnati Trophy on Tapeta. Traveling 6 1/2 furlongs over the European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs should fit Bubble Rock just fine from a distance standpoint, so don’t be surprised if she outruns her 5-1 morning line odds.
According to the Beyer Speed Figures published by the Daily Racing Form, no 2-year-old male has run faster this year than Cave Rock. The Bob Baffert trainee was a powerful debut winner sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on Aug. 13 at Del Mar, leading all the way to win by six lengths with a 101 Beyer.
As a son of late-maturing Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Arrogate, Cave Rock is bred to run long and improve with age and experience, so he looms as an exciting Triple Crown type. We’ll see if he can repeat or improve upon his impressive debut when he starts in Sunday’s 10th race at Del Mar, the Del Mar Futurity (G1) at 8:30 p.m. EDT.
Fresh off a three-length victory in the Yellow Ribbon Handicap (G2) racing 1 1/16 miles over the Del Mar turf course, Going Global is a serious win threat in Saturday’s ninth race at Del Mar, the John C. Mabee (G2) at 8:00 p.m. EDT.
Going Global has won eight stakes (seven of them graded) dating back to January 2021, and her signature victory in the 2021 Del Mar Oaks (G1) came over the same course and 1 1/8-mile distance as the John C. Mabee. Fellow Grade 1 winner Going to Vegas is a formidable challenger, but Going Global’s consistency and affinity for Del Mar should make her difficult to deny.
Cave Rock isn’t the only impressive Baffert trainee stepping into stakes company for the Del Mar Futurity. Newgate made a sharp impression in his July 30 debut at Del Mar, tracking the early pace before taking over to win easily by 3 1/2 lengths.
As a son of three-time leading North American sire Into Mischief out of a mare by Hopeful (G1) winner Majestic Warrior, Newgate is bred to show speed and excel from an early age. National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez is named to ride, so don’t dismiss Newgate from win consideration.
Recent Watch List Winners
Adding Lasix and returning to the Ohio-bred ranks for the Michael G. Mackey Memorial Angenora S. at Thistledown triggered a major turnaround for Amadevil. The speedy 4-year-old shrugged off her troubled last-place finish from the Honorable Miss Handicap (G2) at Saratoga to trounce the Angenora by 5 1/4 lengths, winning the six-furlong dash for the second consecutive year.
A four-time stakes winner with an 8-for-10 lifetime resume, Amadevil is 7-for-7 at Thistledown and ran one of her strongest races yet in the Angenora, stopping the timer in a snappy 1:09.68 seconds. She figures to remain the leader of her local division for the foreseeable future.
Worth Another Try
Although Gulfport as beaten as the even-money favorite in the Hopeful (G1) on closing day at Saratoga, he didn’t run a bad race, carving out fractions of 22.74 and 45.57 seconds over a sloppy track before staying on to finish second by three lengths. Gulfport pulled nine lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and the final time of 1:22.58 seconds was respectable, so we’ll view Gulfport’s effort in a positive light.
Mo Strike was impressive in the Sanford (G3) two starts back, trouncing a deep field (including next-out stakes winners Forte, Andiamo a Firenze, and Boppy O) by 3 1/2 lengths. He completely misfired over a sloppy track in the Hopeful, finishing fourth by 12 1/4 lengths against Forte, but we won’t drop Mo Strike off a single defeat. We’ll give this stoutly bred son of Uncle Mo a chance to rebound.
Which horses do you have your eyes on?