Horses to Watch: 19 entered for Travers week
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
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Victorious in the Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland last fall, Caramel Swirl kicked off 2022 with a flashy 3 3/4-length victory in an $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Belmont Park. She’s stepping up in class for Sunday’s ninth race at Saratoga, the Ballerina Handicap (G1), 5:39 p.m. EDT, but Caramel Swirl still has upside and is worth considering as a live longshot.
After winning the Westchester (G3), Hanshin, a couple of allowances and a maiden special weight racing one mile, Cody’s Wish will cut back to seven furlongs for Saturday’s fifth race at Saratoga, the Forego (G1), 1:55 p.m. EDT. He’ll have to reckon with the red-hot champion sprinter Jackie’s Warrior, but Cody’s Wish keeps getting better and should certainly factor for a top-three finish.
Conagher is 3-for-3 sprinting on dirt this season, with his latest victory a front-running 2 1/4-length score in the Housebuster Overnight Handicap at Colonial Downs. He’s ascending the class ladder for Saturday’s eighth race at Saratoga, the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1), 3:52 p.m. EDT, but Conagher has already defeated Grade 1 winner and Jerkens rival Gunite, suggesting he fits against this field.
Early Voting proved his worth against tough competition when scoring a pace-tracking victory in the Preakness during the spring, but he recently faltered to finish last of four in the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga. Can Early Voting rebound in Saturday’s 11th race at Saratoga, the Travers (G1), 5:44 p.m. EDT? He’s facing a deep field, but looms as the only obvious pacesetter on paper, which may give Early Voting a chance to outrun his 8-1 morning line odds.
Although Edgeway was beaten to sixth place when last seen in the Derby City Distaff (G1), she’s been freshened for 3 1/2 months and has to be viewed as the mare to beat in Sunday’s eighth race at Del Mar, the Rancho Bernardo Handicap (G3), 8:30 p.m. EDT. Edgeway won this race last year on her way to finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, and her first two efforts of 2022 produced stakes wins. We’ll draw a line through the Derby City Distaff and assume Edgeway will rebound with a big run.
Although Epicenter was beaten by Early Voting in the Preakness, he didn’t get the cleanest trip that day, falling off the pace after getting squeezed between rivals early on. The Kentucky Derby runner-up recently bounced back to winning form with a last-to-first victory in the Jim Dandy, earning a career-best 107 Brisnet Speed rating, and the Travers marks a prime opportunity for Epicenter to secure his first Grade 1 win.
The heavy favorite to win the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial is Jack Christopher, who suffered his first defeat from five starts when third in a fast renewal of the Haskell (G1) racing 1 1/8 miles last month. Jack Christopher is 4-for-4 racing one mile or less, which includes victories in the Champagne (G1) and Woody Stephens (G1) plus a blowout maiden win at Saratoga. He’ll be tough to beat while cutting back to seven furlongs for the Jerkens.
Winner of the 2021 Eclipse Award for Champion Male Sprinter, Jackie’s Warrior is undefeated in four starts this season, including effortless victories in the Churchill Downs (G1) and Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1). He’s a heavy favorite to add the Forego to his record and should again win with ease if he brings his A-game to Saratoga, where he’s already won a trio of Grade 1 prizes.
The New York-bred 3-year-old Key Point showed plenty of promise in a seven-furlong allowance during the spring at Belmont Park, pouncing from midfield to dominate by 6 1/2 lengths. He’ll return to action in Friday’s ninth race at Saratoga, a $45,000 allowance optional claimer for New York-breds, 5:39 p.m. EDT, and on paper he’s a clear favorite against a large field.
Laurel River recently returned from a long layoff to trounce an $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Del Mar by 4 3/4 lengths, his second consecutive victory racing one mile over the Del Mar main track. He’ll cut back in distance and step up in class for Saturday’s seventh race at Del Mar, the Pat O’Brien (G2), 9:00 p.m. EDT, but Laurel River’s hot form and affinity for Del Mar make him impossible to dismiss.
The promising 2-year-old Lost Ark was an impressive debut winner on July 3 at Belmont Park, dueling for the lead before kicking away to win a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight by 5 1/2 lengths. The 88 Brisnet Speed rating Lost Ark received stamps the Todd Pletcher trainee as the fastest entrant and the horse to beat in Saturday’s ninth race at Monmouth Park, the Sapling, 4:11 p.m. EDT.
Winner of the 2021 Eclipse Award for Champion Three-Year-Old Filly after picking up three Grade 1 prizes, Malathaat hasn’t been as frequent a winner this year, opening her 4-year-old campaign with a victory in the Doubledogdare (G3) before placing second against Clairiere in both the Ogden Phipps (G1) and Shuvee (G2). But Malathaat remains a force to reckon with in a deep division and will seek to turn the tables on Clairiere in Saturday’s ninth race at Saratoga, the Personal Ensign (G1), 4:32 p.m. EDT.
One of the key win threats in the Ballerina Handicap is Obligatory, who produced a dramatic last-to-first rally to win the Derby City Distaff (G1) during the spring at Churchill Downs. Most recently runner-up by half a length against Ballerina rival Bella Sofia in the Bed o’ Roses (G2) at Belmont, Obligatory appears poised to receive a fair pace setup in the Ballerina and should be charging hard down the lane.
You can argue Pipeline didn’t quite stay 1 1/8 miles when finishing third in the Monmouth Cup (G3) last month, but even in defeat he came home 2 1/4 lengths clear of next-out Philip H. Iselin (G3) winner Informative. Pipeline is cutting back to seven furlongs for the Forego and has a shot at a top-three finish; keep in mind, he defeated Cody’s Wish in a maiden special weight over this track and distance last summer.
Personal Ensign entrant Search Results put up a good fight against Clairiere and Malathaat in the Ogden Phipps (G1) two starts back, finishing third by 2 1/4 lengths after pressing (and then setting) a blazing pace. Search Results subsequently employed more patient tactics to win the Molly Pitcher (G3) by three lengths, and a similarly conservative strategy in the Personal Ensign could allow Search Results to outrun expectations.
One of Edgeway’s biggest challenges in the Rancho Bernardo is Slammed, whose 8-for-10 lifetime record includes seven wins from eight starts sprinting. Slammed has competed primarily on the New Mexico circuit, but she smashed a six-furlong allowance optional claimer at Del Mar last month by 5 1/4 lengths, and the 104 Brisnet Speed rating she posted tops the Rancho Bernardo field. Don’t be surprised if Slammed visits the winner’s circle.
The horse to beat in the Pat O’Brien is likely Speaker’s Corner, winner of the Carter Handicap (G1), Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) and Fred W. Hooper (G3) earlier this year. More recently, Speaker’s Corner has placed behind Grade 1 winners Life Is Good, Flightline, and Happy Saver in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and John A. Nerud (G2), so facing easier competition in the Pat O’Brien might be all Speaker’s Corner needs to rebound.
A two-time graded stakes winner sprinting on dirt, Wit ran just fine in his turf and two-turn debut earlier this month, charging hard to finish second in the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame (G2) at Saratoga. Wit will face easier competition while sticking to grass for Sunday’s eighth race at Saratoga, the Better Talk Now, 5:05 p.m. EDT, so a winning effort may well be in the offing.
Winner of the Blue Grass (G1), third in the Kentucky Derby, second in the Jim Dandy… Zandon has been performing admirably (and with consistency) against tough competition. He hasn’t gotten the measure of Epicenter in three tries thus far, but Zandon is a formidable contender in the Travers and should be capable of recording his seventh top-three finish from as many starts.
Which horses do you have your eyes on this week?