Horses to Watch: 18 strong Breeders’ Cup Saturday entries
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
Breeders' Cup entries
Dirt Mile
Cody’s Wish
Reigning Dirt Mile winner Cody’s Wish is 3-for-4 this year, with blowout victories in the Churchill Downs (G1) and Metropolitan Handicap (G1) ranking as his highlights. Stretching back out around two turns at Santa Anita is a question mark because he’s arguably better around one turn, but Cody’s Wish isn’t facing the toughest field on paper and might be capable of repeating even under less-than-perfect circumstances.
Filly & Mare Turf
Didia
Argentinean sensation Didia has won five of her six starts since arriving in North America, with her lone defeat being a pace-compromised second in the New York (G1). She enters the Filly & Mare Turf off a course-and-distance win in Santa Anita’s Rodeo Drive (G2) and is eligible to outrun her morning-line odds of 8-1.
Runner-up in the 2022 Filly & Mare Turf, In Italian hasn’t missed the exacta in four starts against Grade 1 company this year, winning the Jenny Wiley (G1) and Just a Game (G1) before placing second by narrow margins in the Diana (G1) and First Lady (G1). In Italian shouldn’t have any difficulty making the lead from post 1, so they’ll have to catch her to beat her.
Filly & Mare Sprint
Eda
Eda had her seven-race win streak snapped when finishing third in the Chillingworth (G3), her first defeat from five starts at Santa Anita. But the four-time graded-stakes winner chased blazing fractions of 21.66 and 43.69 seconds, so she may prove capable of rebounding with a different setup.
Reigning Filly & Mare Sprint winner Goodnight Olive has struggled a bit this season, but she looked more like her old self when finishing second to champion Echo Zulu in the Ballerina Handicap (G1) at Saratoga. Goodnight Olive pulled 6 1/4 lengths clear of third-place finisher Matareya, a two-time Grade 1 winner, and might be rounding back to peak form just in time for the Breeders’ Cup.
Mile
Master of The Seas
Woodbine Mile (G1) winner and narrow Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) runner-up Master of The Seas is a major Mile contender for trainer Charlie Appleby, who boasts a spectacular 9-for-18 lifetime record at the Breeders’ Cup. Drawing post 14 is unfortunate and opens the door for a wide trip,. But if Master of The Seas can save some ground around the turns, he’ll be in the thick of things down the lane.
Another major contender in the Mile is 3-year-old filly Mawj, who beat star European miler Tahiyra to take the historic 1,000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket during the spring. Mawj recently returned from a layoff with a gate-to-wire win in Keeneland’s 1 1/8-mile Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) and might appreciate dropping down to one mile for her second start back.
Songline ranks as one of the best horses in Japan after winning the prestigious Yasuda Kinen (G1) over 1,600 meters, about one mile, in back-to-back years. She routinely runs her final 600 meters in less than 34 seconds and recorded a blazing winning time of 1:31.4 in the 2023 Yasuda Kinen, so Songline’s turn of foot is going to be tough to deny in the Santa Anita homestretch.
Distaff
Idiomatic
Winner of four consecutive graded stakes, including the Personal Ensign (G1) and Spinster (G1), Idiomatic is favored to beat a deep field in the Distaff. She benefited from easy leads in both of her Grade 1 wins and faces more speed at Santa Anita, but Idiomatic has improved by leaps and bounds this year and might be able to withstand a faster pace at this point.
Turf
Up to the Mark
Winner of the 1 1/8-mile Turf Classic (G1), 1 1/4-mile Manhattan (G1) and one-mile Turf Mile (G1) in succession this season, Up to the Mark faces a tough task stretching out over 1 1/2 miles against a formidable group of international raiders in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. But he’s got a strong stretch kick and has handled a variety of distances already, so Up to the Mark can’t be counted out of the mix.
War Like Goddess has struggled a bit in 2023, but she was back to her best in the 1 1/2-mile Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) last month, surging from far behind a runaway leader to beat males, including reigning Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Rebel’s Romance, by 4 1/2 lengths. She finished third in the 2022 Turf and might be capable of recording another strong finish.
Classic
Arabian Knight
A gate-to-wire winner against a strong field in the 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic (G1) during the summer, Arabian Knight has trained up a storm in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, turning in a series of stiff six-furlong and seven-furlong workouts before capping off with five furlongs in a bullet 59 seconds. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Classic four times with 3-year-olds and has every chance to win a fifth with Arabian Knight.
Saudi Crown has been throwing down strong speed figures all year long, including when wiring the 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby (G1) over a sloppy track. Stretching out over 1 1/4 miles is a new challenge for this speedy gray colt, but Saudi Crown enters off sharp workouts at Churchill Downs and shouldn’t be underestimated.
Turf Sprint
Roses for Debra
Roses for Debra was beaten over an extremely slow yielding turf course in the Turf Monster (G3) last time out, but she’d previously dominated four straight turf sprints over firm and good going, including the Caress (G3) and Smart N Fancy at Saratoga. She has tactical speed but doesn’t mind rating off the pace, so Roses for Debra is a live long shot to upset the Turf Sprint while returning to her preferred firm footing.
Sprint
Dr. Schivel
Runner-up by a nose in the 2021 Sprint, Dr. Schivel has slowly rounded back to peak form this year and returns to the Breeders’ Cup off a tenacious victory in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2). Dr. Schivel boasts a 4-for-6 record at Santa Anita and has every chance to factor in his second Sprint appearance.
Reigning Sprint winner Elite Power was arguably compromised by a slow pace when finishing second in the seven-furlong Forego (G1) last time out. Previously victorious in eight straight races, including Saratoga’s six-furlong Alfred G. Vanderbilt (G1) during the summer, Elite Power is eligible to rebound while returning to six furlongs and hopefully catching a quicker pace than in the Forego.
Gunite was the beneficiary of the slow pace when wiring the Forego over Elite Power, one start after finishing second by a head to that rival in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt. Six furlongs might be a hair shorter than Gunite prefers to run, but he’s never missed the trifecta over this trip and has every chance to vie for a top-three finish in his fourth meeting with Elite Power.
Speed Boat Beach ran a giant race when returning from a 10-month layoff in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, pressing and dueling through quick fractions before finishing second by a head against Dr. Schivel. Speed Boat Beach has fired off fast workouts since then, including a bullet six furlongs from the Santa Anita starting gate in 1:11.0 and can vie for victory in his second start back for trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Sprint a record five times.
Aqueduct entry
Apollo Ten
After finishing seventh in his debut on dirt against Breeders’ Cup Juvenile entrant Fierceness, Apollo Ten switched to grass for a six-furlong maiden special weight at Belmont at the Big A. The result? A pace-tracking victory by three-quarters of a length over next-out winner Irish Gent. Apollo Ten will stick to grass for Saturday’s sixth race at Aqueduct, the six-furlong Atlantic Beach (post time 2:40 p.m. EDT) and looms among the main win contenders.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.