Horses to Watch: 16 race as Derby, Oaks preps reach peak
In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
Upcoming entries
Alva Starr
Alva Starr showed talent sprinting as a 3-year-old last year, most notably dominating the Prioress (G2) by 8 3/4 lengths. She kicked off 2024 with a decisive win in the American Beauty and looms as a key win threat while stepping up in class for Saturday’s eighth race at Keeneland, the Madison (G1), post time 4:48 p.m. EDT.
Austere
Winner of the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies and fifth by two lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last year, Austere didn’t get a clear trip when starting 2024 with a fifth-place finish in the Florida Oaks (G3). She can rebound at a price if she gets an unencumbered run in Saturday’s seventh race at Keeneland, the Appalachian (G2), post time 4:14 p.m. EDT.
Be You
Be You has shown flashes of talent since last year, including when second by a nose in a Saratoga maiden special weight featuring Arkansas Derby (G1) runner-up Just Steel and Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner Locked. He impressed in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park last month and may have the talent to factor in Saturday’s 10th race at Keeneland, the Blue Grass (G1), post time 5:52 p.m. EDT.Booth
Booth has been brilliant in two of his three starts, most recently dominating a $100,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting six furlongs at Oaklawn by 4 1/4 lengths. He’s the morning line favorite to shine again while stretching out over seven furlongs in Friday’s sixth race at Keeneland, the Lafayette, with post time 3:40 p.m. EDT.
Doncho
Two starts, two victories. Doncho has smashed six-furlong maiden special weight and $100,000 allowance optional claiming contests at Fair Grounds, so he looms as a formidable challenger to Booth in the Lafayette.
Fandom
Fandom hasn’t run since finishing 11th in the 2023 Conventry (G2) at Royal Ascot in England, but he shouldn’t be underestimated while returning to action in Sunday’s seventh race at Keeneland, the Palisades, at 4:12 p.m. EDT. Sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the Keeneland turf should suit this Wesley Ward trainee just fine, considering he wired his April 2023 debut over this course and distance by 6 3/4 lengths.
Faustin
Faustin won his December 2022 debut for trainer Bob Baffert by 2 3/4 lengths, then finished second in the January 2023 San Vicente (G2). He hasn’t run since, but the beautifully bred son of Curlin out of Hard Not to Like is entered in Saturday’s 11th race at Santa Anita, a $50,000 allowance optional claimer, post time 8:16 p.m. EDT. Racing one mile on grass is a new obstacle for Faustin, but Hard Not to Like won three Grade 1 races on turf, so Faustin may handle the surface switch just fine.
Just a Touch
After smashing his debut sprinting six furlongs at Fair Grounds, Just a Touch stepped up in class to finish second in the one-mile Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct. The well-traveled colt will face his toughest test to date in the Blue Grass, but he may have the talent to record another top-two finish. Certainly he brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the table.
Kinza
Kinza has won all three of her starts by a combined 14 1/2 lengths, including the Las Virgenes (G3) and Santa Ysabel (G3) at Santa Anita. If she brings her A-game to Saturday’s sixth race at Santa Anita, the Santa Anita Oaks (G2), post time 5:32 p.m. EDT, she’ll be tough to beat.
Leslie's Rose
Leslie’s Rose won her first two starts sprinting before faltering to third place as the heavy favorite in the one-mile Davona Dale (G2). She’ll get another chance on the road to the Kentucky Oaks while making her two-turn debut in Friday’s ninth race at Keeneland, the Ashland (G1), post time 5:16 p.m. EDT.
Nothing Like You
Nothing Like You was no match for Kinza in the Las Virgenes, finishing fourth by 12 3/4 lengths, but she’d previously wired the Starlet (G2) by 5 1/4 lengths. A return to that level of form would make Nothing Like You a logical contender in the Santa Anita Oaks.
Pirate
Saratoga debut winner Pirate hasn’t started since finishing third in the September 2023 Hopeful (G1), only a neck behind runner-up and next-out Champagne (G1) winner Timberlake. However, Pirate has been turning in fast workouts for trainer Todd Pletcher and shouldn’t be underestimated while returning to action in Saturday’s second race at Keeneland, a $100,000 allowance optional claimer, post time 1:32 p.m. EDT.
Pounce
Austere is a live long shot in the Appalachian, but the filly to beat is Pounce, whose 2-for-2 record on turf includes a fast-finishing triumph in the Herecomesthebride (G3) at Gulfstream. Pounce has shown versatility in terms of running style and should have every chance to keep her perfect grass record intact at Keeneland.
Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone is a nose away from being undefeated in three starts. He rallied boldly against a slow pace to beat a deep field in the Risen Star (G2) last time out and should only move forward while making his second start of the season in the Blue Grass, where he’s the 2-1 morning line favorite.
Tuscan Sky
Tuscan Sky has gone 2-for-2 for trainer Todd Pletcher, most notably winning a Fair Grounds $100,000 allowance optional claimer by two lengths over next-out Hot Springs winner Nash. The son of champion Vino Rosso is a viable win threat while stepping up in class for Saturday’s 10th race at Aqueduct, the Wood Memorial (G2), post time 4:07 p.m. EDT.Winterfell
Winterfell failed to show much when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita last month, chasing a blazing pace before fading to finish fifth by a wide margin. Perhaps the Triple Crown-nominated son of Arrogate will benefit from the experience and fare better while sticking to similar conditions for Saturday’s second race at Santa Anita, a six-furlong maiden special weight, post time 3:29 p.m. EDT.