Horses to Watch: 14 worth your attention, 1 to drop
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
Could Electric Ride be a star filly in the making? The John Sadler trainee was tons the best in her Saturday debut sprinting six furlongs at Del Mar, tracking the early tempo before powering clear to dominate by 8 1/2 lengths.
Electric Ride stopped the clock in 1:10.84, meaningfully faster than the time of 1:11.18 posted by the Bob Baffert-trained 2-year-old colt Rockefeller in a similar maiden race later on the card. As a daughter of popular stallion Daredevil (the sire of Kentucky Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil and champion filly Swiss Skydiver), Electric Ride has the potential to improve with distance and maturity, stamping her as an exciting prospect to follow.
This Chad Brown-trained juvenile blew the doors off a six-furlong maiden special weight on Saturday at Saratoga, pressing fast fractions of 21.83 and 44.61 seconds before drawing off with authority to win by 8 3/4 lengths.
Jack Christopher reached the finish line in 1:09.85 and defeated a promising field in the process, stamping the son of Munnings as a logical contender for the Champagne (G1) at Belmont Park this fall.
Just how strongly did Jackie’s Warrior perform in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) at Saratoga? He showed impressive tenacity to track fast fractions, slip through inside of odds-on favorite Life Is Good down the lane and battle on to win by a neck. Even better, Jackie’s Warrior’s final time of 1:21.39 was blazing – for the sake of comparison, champion female sprinter Gamine won the Ballerina S (G1) in 1:21.61 and Yaupon claimed the Forego (G1) in 1:21.74 on the same afternoon.
A three-time Grade 1 winner, Jackie’s Warrior just keeps getting better, and the Breeders’ Cup Sprint looms as a viable goal for the speedy son of Maclean’s Music.
After trailing for the first mile of the Travers (G1) at Saratoga, King Fury never had a realistic chance to catch up. The early fractions (24.18, 48.96, and 1:14.49) were pedestrian, and the pace accelerated dramatically during the final half mile, with the last two quarter-mile sections elapsing in 24.32 and 23.15. Under the circumstances, I thought King Fury ran OK to pass a couple rivals and finish fifth. With a better pace setup against easier company next time, King Fury can bounce back at a nice price.
How is a late runner supposed to win a seven-furlong Grade 1 sprint when the opening quarter mile is timed in 23.20? Sconsin was significantly compromised by a slow early/fast late race shape in the Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga, racing back in fifth place while reigning champion female sprinter Gamine escaped with an easy lead. Nevertheless, Sconsin gained ground into the teeth of a 22.48 second quarter and fought on gamely down the lane to finish fourth by just 3 1/4 lengths. Given a fair setup next time, I think we will see a much more competitive effort from Sconsin.
Recent Watch List winners
If Jackie’s Warrior is going to win the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, he might have to reckon with his undefeated stablemate Beau Liam. The 3-year-old son of Liam’s Map brought his record to a perfect 3-for-3 with a blowout allowance win on Sunday at Saratoga.
The outcome was never really in doubt. After setting pressured fractions of 22.14 and 44.92, Beau Liam kicked away with authority to dominate the 6 1/2-furlong sprint by six lengths in 1:15.05. The sky is the limit for this Steve Asmussen trainee, who is surely bound for graded stakes company in the near future. I think there is a good chance Beau Liam will win a Grade 1 before the year is over.
Adding blinkers seems to have made all the difference for Ginobili, who delivered another powerful performance in the Pat O’Brien S. (G2) at Del Mar. After pressing fast fractions of :22.05 and :44.38, Ginobili seized a daylight lead and cruised home through the final furlong to win the seven-furlong sprint by 1 3/4 lengths in 1:22.36.
With his 3-for-4 record over the Del Mar main track and 2-for-2 record wearing blinkers, Ginobili has emerged as a serious threat for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint or Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, depending on which distance seems more suitable come November.
Worth another try
Couldn’t keep pace with Jackie’s Warrior and Life Is Good (see below) in the H. Allen Jerkens, finishing nine lengths back in third place. But since the Allen Jerkens was such a fast race, I can’t judge Following Sea’s defeat too harshly – he did finish 2 1/4 lengths clear of Grade 1 winner Drain the Clock. Against easier company next time, I believe Following Sea can return to the winner’s circle. Perhaps the six-furlong Gallant Bob (G2) at Parx next month could be a perfect spot?
Irish Unity couldn’t quite hang on after carving out the pace in the St. Louis Derby at FanDuel Sportsbook and Horse Racing, weakening through slow finishing fractions to finish second by a length. But I will not judge his effort too harshly, since Irish Unity was making his stakes debut and did put up a good fight against proven stakes winner Flash of Mischief. Irish Unity is now 2-for-2 sprinting and 0-for-2 running long, so a cutback in distance might help him rebound next time.
Ran well off a layoff in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial, carving out intense fractions of :21.97 and :44.16 before settling for second place by a neck against Jackie’s Warrior. If not for drifting wide off the turn – which allowed Jackie’s Warrior to slip through inside – Life Is Good might have prevailed. He was coming back at Jackie’s Warrior through the final furlong and likewise ran faster than Gamine and Yaupon, so I’ll view Life Is Good’s effort in a positive light.
Outran expectations as a 10-1 shot in the Better Talk Now racing one mile over the Saratoga turf, tracking fractions of 23.79 and 47.14 before settling for third place by two lengths. An effective performer on dirt and turf, Wolfie’s Dynaghost is gradually making progress and has the pedigree to peak as an older horse, so I will keep him on my watch list for the time being.
Upcoming entries
Limited Liability was much the best in his debut racing 1 1/16 miles over the Saratoga turf, rallying strongly from seventh place to dominate by 2 3/4 lengths. And since trainer Shug McGaughey is not really known for saddling ready-to-win first-time starters, there is a chance Limited Liability will run even better in Wednesday’s ninth race at Saratoga, the With Anticipation (G2, post time 5:39 p.m. EDT).
Drawing the rail sets the stage for a ground-saving trip, and there appears to be enough speed in the field to enhance Limited Liability’s late charge. I am excited to see what the son of Kitten’s Joy can accomplish in his second run under colors.
Limited Liability’s stiffest competition in the With Anticipation may come from Portfolio Company, a Chad Brown trainee who employed pace-tracking tactics to win his debut racing 1 1/16 miles over the Saratoga turf last month. The son of Kitten’s Joy was a little rank through slow early fractions and arguably struck the front too soon, weakening through the final furlong to prevail by just three-quarters of a length. But if he races more professionally on Wednesday, Portfolio Company can deliver an improved performance.
Fresh off a 14 1/4-length demolition of a one-mile maiden special weight at Ellis Park, Tiz the Bomb looms as an intriguing contender in Tuesday’s seventh race at Colonial Downs, the Kitten’s Joy (post time 4:33 p.m. EDT).
Switching from dirt to turf is a question mark for the Kenny McPeek trainee, though Tiz the Bomb is a son of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Hit It a Bomb, so he does have the pedigree to enjoy grass. The 1 1/16-mile distance also should suit Tiz the Bomb just fine, so don’t be surprised if he visits the winner’s circle.
Off the Watch List
Dynamic One
Never fired in the Travers, fading from mid-pack to finish last by a wide margin. The slow early/fast late race shape did not help his chances, but I will want to see Dynamic One bounce back with a sharper effort before returning him to my watch list.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.