Horses to Watch: 11 to follow and 7 to drop
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the Watch List
The Churchill Downs main track was playing fast on Saturday, but even with this in mind, it’s safe to say Cody’s Wish ran a big race in the day’s opening event. Heavily favored to win a one-mile maiden special weight, the Godolphin homebred settled 2 1/2 lengths behind a 23.35-second opening quarter, gradually advanced into testing middle splits of 45.99 and 1:09.48 seconds, and then drew with authority through fast closing fractions to win by two lengths.
Cody’s Wish reached the finish line in 1:33.88 seconds, just 0.03 slower than Plainsman ran while winning Churchill’s Ack Ack (G3) later in the afternoon. As a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin out of Gazelle (G1) winner Dance Card, Cody’s Wish boasts an elite pedigree geared strongly toward stamina. Don’t be surprised if he develops into a graded-stakes winner.
It wasn’t the flashiest performance of the weekend, but I thought Commandperformance ran a deceptively strong race in the Champagne (G1) at Belmont. Coming off a runner-up effort in his debut at Saratoga, the stretch-running Todd Pletcher trainee settled half a dozen lengths off the early pace, then rallied resiliently down the homestretch to finish second by 2 3/4 lengths.
Commandperformance was cutting into the lead of pace-tracking winner Jack Christopher and pulled seven lengths clear of the rest, indicative of a strong performance. The son of Union Rags was produced by a Tapit mare and has the pedigree to stretch out around two turns, so if Commandperformance winds up running in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, I would view him as a live long shot for victory.
A stoutly bred son of Preakness hero Bernardini out of a mare by two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow, Oviatt Class is bred top and bottom to thrive over classic distances. Certainly the Keith Desormeaux trainee has shown improvement since stretching out around two turns on dirt, with a third-place finish in the America Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita marking his latest step in the right direction.
Oviatt Class was outsprinted for the first six furlongs of the American Pharoah, racing as many as 11 1/2 lengths behind front-running winner Corniche. But the bay colt was full of run down the homestretch, gaining 3 1/4 lengths in the final furlong alone to miss second place by just half a length. I think Oviatt Class will continue improving with distance and maturity, setting the stage for a productive sophomore season.
Recent Watch List winners
Left no doubt about her superiority in the Frizette (G1) at Belmont, setting quick fractions before powering clear to dominate by 7 1/4 lengths. The daughter of Gun Runner surged to the finish line in a flashy 1:35.12 to record her second Grade 1 win, following a similarly impressive score in Saratoga’s Spinaway. It’s clear Echo Zulu has an abundance of talent, and the Steve Asmussen trainee figures to be heavily favored in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies next month.
Brought his record to a perfect 2-for-2 with a gutsy victory in the Champagne, pressing (and eventually setting) fractions of 23.57, 46.49, and 1:11.15 before taking command to win with ease. The son of Munnings did decelerate down the homestretch, running the final quarter mile in 26.16 seconds while his lead diminished from 5 1/2 lengths to 2 3/4 lengths. But even if Jack Christopher proves better sprinting than routing, at least we know he has Grade 1 talent.
Unleashed his trademark turn-of-foot to win the City of Hope Mile (G2) at Santa Anita in impressive fashion. The son of Uncle Mo looked beaten at the eighth pole, when he trailed Grade 1 winner Smooth Like Strait by 3 1/2 lengths, but sprinting the final furlong in 11.52 seconds (per Trakus) allowed Mo Forza to get up and win by half a length. He looks like a serious player for the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
Delivered as expected in the American Pharoah at Santa Anita, posting respectable fractions of 23.55, 47.26, and 1:11.91 seconds before kicking on to win by 3 1/4 lengths. His final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:44.75 seconds, meaningfully faster than the 1:45.20 clocking posted by Ain’t Easy in the Chandelier (G2) on the same afternoon. A beautifully bred son of Quality Road, Corniche is now unbeaten and unchallenged in two starts, with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile looming as a logical goal.
Worth another try
Didn’t get the best trip in his stakes debut, breaking slowly in the Ack Ack (G3) at Churchill Downs before advancing wide to track fast fractions of 22.65, 45.21 and 1:09.15 seconds. Nevertheless, Beau Liam dug deep down the homestretch to finish second by one length against Plainsman, who rallied from further off the pace. The final time of 1:33.85 seconds was quick, and I’m confident Beau Liam can bounce back next time.
Ran well when stepping up in class for her second start, carving out the pace in the Chandelier (G2) at Santa Anita before hanging on to finish second. True, Electric Ride was no match for runaway winner Ain’t Easy, coming home 4 3/4 lengths behind. But Electric Ride is a daughter of Daredevil (whose best runners have improved with maturity), so I don’t think we’ve seen her best yet.
Switching from dirt to turf is a challenging task, so I will give Forbidden Kingdom credit for running well under these circumstances in the Speakeasy at Santa Anita. Making only his second start, Forbidden Kingdom pressed undefeated stakes winner One Timer through blazing fractions of 21.01 and 43.48 seconds before weakening slightly to finish third, beaten 3 1/4 lengths. Returning to dirt (or simply encountering a more reasonable pace scenario) can help Forbidden Kingdom rebound next time.
Although Idol finished sixth in the Awesome Again (G1) at Santa Anita, the son of Curlin probably wasn’t cranked for a peak effort in his first start since winning the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) seven months ago. I’ll give him a chance to rebound next time.
Off the Watch List
Express Train
Freelancer
Limited Liability
My Prankster
Stellar Sound
Tripoli
Wit
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.