Horses to Watch: 11 names to know as Keeneland opens
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
Recent Watch List Winners
This Ohio-bred star brought her career record to a perfect 5-for-5 with a dominant victory in Thursday’s Scarlet and Gray Handicap at Thistledown, leading all the way to dominate the six-furlong dash by 6 3/4 lengths in 1:09.64 seconds. She is clearly a standout among Ohio’s female sprinters, and I am starting to think the La Brea (G1) at Santa Anita this winter could be a viable target for Amadevil.
Upcoming Entries
Aloha West
Fresh off a pair of allowance wins at Saratoga, Aloha West looms as a key contender in Friday’s eighth race at Keeneland, the Phoenix (G2, post time 5:10 p.m. EDT). Normally a deep closer, Aloha West showed improved tactical speed in his most recent start, employing pace-tracking tactics to win a seven-furlong dash by 2 3/4 lengths. The result was a lofty 107 Brisnet Speed rating, suggesting Aloha West has the talent to compete at the graded stakes level.
Averly Jane
Three starts, three unchallenged victories. Averly Jane has been unstoppable for trainer Wesley Ward, dominating her debut at Keeneland before beating males in both the Kentucky Juvenile and Skidmore. The daughter of Midshipman will face males again in Sunday’s eighth race at Keeneland, the Indian Summer (post time 4:44 p.m.), a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint. Averly Jane has never run on grass, but if she handles the surface switch, she can win the Indian Summer and emerge as a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint contender.
Baby Yoda
Former claimer Baby Yoda has made remarkable progress under the care of trainer Bill Mott. After wiring a six-furlong, $50,000 starter allowance at Saratoga, the 3-year-old gelding came back to obliterate a 6 1/2-furlong allowance over the same track, pressing fast fractions before pulling clear to win by 4 1/4 lengths. With a pair of triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings under his belt, Baby Yoda has a chance to vie for victory in Saturday’s fifth race at Belmont Park, the Vosburgh (G2, post time 2:45 p.m.).
Following Sea
One of Baby Yoda’s key rivals in the Vosburgh is fellow 3-year-old Following Sea. The son of Runhappy finished third in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) at Saratoga last month, beaten only by next-out graded stakes winners Jackie’s Warrior and Life Is Good. Considering those two are the possible favorites for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, respectively, Following Sea should find the competition a bit easier in the Vosburgh.
Golden Pal
Although Golden Pal faltered when shipping to England for the Nunthorpe (G1), finishing seventh, I expect him to produce a much stronger effort in Saturday’s sixth race at Keeneland, the Woodford (G2, post time 3:40 p.m.). Golden Pal was sharp as could be in the Quick Call (G3) at Saratoga during the summer, leading all the way to win by three lengths. and he showed an affinity for Keeneland when wiring the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.
Great Escape
Fresh off a flashy maiden win at Churchill Downs, Great Island looms as a logical contender in Saturday’s ninth race at Keeneland, the Futurity (G1, post time 5:15 p.m.). The son of Midnight Storm rolled home by 2 1/4 lengths in a seven-furlong sprint, and the way he finished (sprinting the final furlong in 12.61 seconds) bodes well for stretching out over 1 1/16 miles.
Penny Saver
Two weeks ago, Penny Saver was a powerful maiden winner at Churchill Downs, leading all the way to trounce a 1 1/16-mile event by 9 1/2 lengths. Only time will tell if she can repeat the effort while stepping up against tougher company in Friday’s ninth race at Keeneland, the Alcibiades (G1, post time 5:45 p.m.), but Penny Saver enters as one of the fastest fillies on paper, and trainer Kenny McPeek has won this race five times, including two of the last three editions.
Rattle N Roll
In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, Rattle N Roll isn’t the fastest horse entered in the Breeders’ Futurity. But I believe the Kenny McPeek trainee ran deceptively well when breaking his maiden in a 1 1/16-mile event at Churchill Downs last month. Rattle N Roll charged strongly into a slow pace to dominate by three lengths, and the fact he blazed the final five-sixteenths of a mile in 30.20 seconds hints he had more to offer. I’m expecting a competitive effort in the Breeders’ Futurity.
Sir Alfred James
Sir Alfred James burned up the Churchill Downs main track two weeks ago, carving out a fast pace in a six-furlong allowance before powering clear to win by 5 3/4 lengths in 1:08.00. This effort produced a 106 Brisnet Speed rating, stamping Sir Alfred James as a key challenger to Aloha West in the Phoenix. He’ll just have to avoid getting caught up in a destructive speed duel with all the other speed horses in Friday’s field.
Tiz the Bomb
It’s safe to say Tiz the Bomb loves running long. Since stretching out in distance, the Kenny McPeek trainee has dominated an Ellis Park maiden special weight by 14 1/4 lengths and rallied to a tenacious score in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile. Turf or dirt, it doesn’t matter to Tiz the Bomb, who will have every chance to pick up a second stakes win when facing a large field in Sunday’s 10th race at Keeneland, the Bourbon (G2, post time 5:46 p.m.).
Which horses do you have your eyes on this week?