Horse Racing Nation lists early 2019 Preakness Stakes odds

Improbable, the post time Kentucky Derby favorite promoted to fourth following Maximum Security’s disqualification at Churchill Downs, projects as the morning line favorite for the second leg of the Triple Crown series, the May 18 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course.

That’s according to Horse Racing Nation co-founder Mark Midland, who on Thursday listed early Preakness odds with Improbable — the Bob Baffert trainee who picks up jockey Mike Smith — as the top 3-1 choice.

“We should also point out that Maximum Security would have been a big favorite here,” said Midland, who in 1999 created Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Derby Future Wager. “Everyone watched him win the Derby in commanding fashion, and there is a groundswell of support behind seeing him avenge that controversial disqualification.”

In addition to Maximum Security, connections to Country House, Code of Honor and Tacitus have all joined in passing on the Preakness, marking the first time since 1951 that the first four across the wire in the Derby won’t run back at Pimlico.

That set up a decision of favoritism between Improbable and War of Will, the Derby’s seventh-place finisher who was caught up in Maximum Security’s veering move. Midland installed War of Will as the Preakness’ 7-2 projected second choice.

"We went with Improbable as favorite due to the Baffert and Smith combination, but it's easy to see that War of Will could be favored here, too," he said. "War of Will's trouble in the Derby is common knowledge, and he certainly seemed to have plenty of run left before all the trouble started. 

"It's a close call between Improbable and War of Will, and I ultimately could see them as co-favorites in the betting, or perhaps War of Will might go favored."

Top challenges to the Derby duo are expected from Alwaysmining, a prolific Maryland-bred who has stretched his speed around two turns to win six straight races at Laurel Park. He’s the early third choice at 5-1.

Owendale, who defeated Preakness rival Anothertwistafate last time in Keeneland’s Lexington Stakes (G3), also appears to be moving forward. He’s 6-1 along with Bourbon War, who ran close with Code of Honor in Gulfstream Park’s top Derby preps, the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1).

“The Kentucky Derby speed figures came back low, while ‘new shooters’ Alwaysmining and Owendale both registered Brisnet Speed Ratings of 99 in their last races,” Midland said. “There is reason to believe one of the Triple Crown newcomers could upset the Derby runners in Baltimore.”

With all others anticipated at double digit prices, here’s a look at the early morning line for the Preakness Stakes’ prospective field of 11: