Horse Racing Nation expert picks: Louisiana Derby
The Kentucky Derby trail starts coming into sharper focus Saturday in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, a 100-50-25-15-10 point prep. The race guarantees its winner a spot in the starting gate, makes a spot very likely for the second-place finisher as well and puts other horses who run well into contention if they have other good prep race form.
The Louisiana Derby drew a large, competitive field. 11 are expected to run, as rail-drawn Triple Espresso is expected to be routed to the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway. Cross-entered stablemate Agate Road is expected to start in the Louisiana Derby.
The 3-1 morning-line favorite is Track Phantom, though he drew a challenging far-outside post. He had to handle an outside draw in the Risen Star (G2) as well, and was caught in the lane by Sierra Leone.
This is how writers at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the race:
Candice Curtis, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Hall of Fame
On the board: Catching Freedom
Long shot I like: Antiquarian
Analysis: Hall of Fame will tuck in just behind stablemate Track Phantom and get the job done on a fast track. Catching Freedom will need every bit of home stretch to get there. Antiquarian is an interesting runner who could put it together to hit the board.
Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Agate Road
On the board: Catching Freedom
Long shot I like: Real Men Violin
Analysis: We'll see if we actually get the morning line price on Agate Road, but he's a straightforward play for me at anywhere near that 8-1 price given his Ragozin Figure last out is clearly the fastest of this group.
Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Winner: Hall of Fame
On the board: Track Phantom
Long shot I like: Antiquarian
Analysis: The Risen Star was not a good barometer for anyone except Sierra Leone, who is not walking through that door this weekend. Hall of Fame was disserviced by the slop that day as well as a trip that was not ideal. Maybe I am getting blinded by the $1.4 million price tag as much as his 10-length, maiden-breaking win. He also can chase the pace, and that will come in handy if Track Phantom is compromised by his wide draw. The price will be more right with him than the program favorite, so give me Hall of Fame over Track Phantom with Antiquarian graduating to hit the board.
Jarrod Horak, Today's Best Bet
Winner: Track Phantom
On the board: Catching Freedom
Long shot I like: Honor Marie
Analysis: Speed horses have dominated this race since they moved the distance to 1 3/16 miles in 2020. Track Phantom is the most accomplished horse in the race and is the only confirmed front runner. Catching Freedom was a length and a quarter behind Track Phantom in the Risen Star. He will try to pounce from midpack. Last year's Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes hero Honor Marie should be finishing in his second start after a layoff.
Mark Midland, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Common Defense
On the board: Hall of Fame
Long shot I like: Honor Marie
Analysis: Common Defense ran great in his last at Oaklawn, but speed is dangerous in a race lacking serious pace so I'm giving a shot to Hall of Fame and also Track Phantom. Catching Freedom ran well in the Risen Star and is worth another shot.
Ashley Tamulonis, From Coast to Coast
Winner: Track Phantom
On the board: Catching Freedom
Long shot I like: Common Defense
Analysis: The track on Risen Star day was sloppy, and I think that more than Track Phantom's outside post was key to his defeat. Track Phantom has enough gate speed to clear the field and establish the lead, and Antiquarian is really the only one that might try to go with him. Common Defense should be in a good striking position as they enter the stretch, and Catching Freedom will come on late like in the Risen Star. I would not be shocked to see Honor Marie get a piece of this pie either.
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Honor Marie
On the board: Antiquarian, Track Phantom
Long shot I like: Real Men Violin
Analysis: Honor Marie can move forward second off the lay, and his trip in the Kentucky Jockey Club last year suggests he can rally at the right time to prevail despite the likely modest pace. Track Phantom's speed should serve him well, though the far-outside post and the longer distance could be challenges. Antiquarian has a better draw and enough early speed to be involved from the outset. For underneath shares of exotic wagers, Real Men Violin was more tactical the last time Corey Lanerie rode him than he was last time, and can improve in his second start of the year.