Horse Racing Nation expert picks: Kentucky Derby 2023
The series of prep races that started in September has led up to this: Kentucky Derby 2023 on Saturday afternoon. The race is expected to go with a field of 18. Five horses including morning-line favorite Forte were scratched, and all three entrants on the also-eligible list will run.
Through Saturday morning betting, Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Angel of Empire has held as a slight favorite at 9-2 over Blue Grass (G1) winner Tapit Trice. The next echelon in the wagering action includes UAE Derby (G2) winner Derma Sotogake and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) victor Two Phil's, both at 7-1 through Saturday morning.
Below is how the experts at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the Kentucky Derby.
Candice Curtis, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 2 Verifying
On the board: No. 5 Tapit Trice, No. 14 Angel of Empire, No. 17 Derma Sotogake
Long shot I like: No. 2 Verifying
Analysis: I'm no chalk eater when it comes to the Derby. My play on top is No. 2 Verifying. This son of Justify should sit a pressing trip and get first jump on tiring speed horses. If he's good enough, he can win it. I also like No. 5 Tapit Trice, who has blossomed like the Louisville flowers while training at Churchill, and his final work looked better than Forte's. I also will use No. 14 Angel of Empire, No. 17 Derma Sotogake and No. 8 Mage in my exotics.
Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Winner: No. 2 Verifying
On the board: No. 3 Two Phil's
Analysis: Verifying possesses the traits that have been common to most Derby winners in the points era. Forwardly placed, fast fractions to finish his last prep and speed numbers that meet certain minimum standards. Of course the 2 hole could be a problem. His early fractions have to be swift but not insane.
Jerrod Horak, Best Bets
Winner: No. 5 Tapit Trice
On the board: No. 17 Derma Sotogake
Long shot I like: No. 11 Disarm
Analysis: Tapit Trice was able to make an early run and sustain it in a much more professional effort in the Blue Grass (G1). He is training well and has the pedigree to handle a mile and a quarter. Derma Sotogake landed a favorable outer post and should work out a decent early-pressing trip. He was visually impressive in the UAE Derby (G2). Disarm did what he had to do to qualify for the Derby in the Lexington (G3). He figures to appreciate the added ground on Saturday.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
Winner: No. 5 Tapit Trice
On the board: No. 17 Derma Sotogake
Long shot I like: No. 11 Disarm
Analysis: Tapit Trice owns the best closing punch in the field. He won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) from a position near the rear of the field, and then he won the Blue Grass after making an early move and confronting the leader Verifying on the far turn. Although Tapit Trice's slow-breaking habit remains a concern, he did improve coming out of the gate in the Blue Grass. If Tapit Trice fails, Derma Sotogake makes a great second choice on top, as he probably will take advantage of his tactical speed and find himself in the late mix in the stretch.
Win: 5 (at 7/2 or higher)
Exacta box: 5,17
Exacta wheel: 5,17 / 6
Exacta wheel: 5,17 / 11
Mark Midland, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 11 Disarm
On the board: No. 17 Derma Sotogake
Long shot I like: No. 7 Reincarnate
Analysis: I love the way Disarm has looked the last two weeks. He should have a great late kick and is a live horse at a big price. Reincarnate could set the pace and hold on for a long time at another big price. Use them with Angel of Empire, Derma Sotogake and Tapit Trice.
Brad Stephens, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 2 Verifying
On the board: No. 11 Disarm, No. 22 Mandarin Hero
Long shot I like: No. 11 Disarm
Analysis: The Saturday morning scratch of Forte, the morning-line favorite and my top pick, required me to revisit the race. I like Verifying best of the runners who project to be near the early pace, and I think he can get first jump if the speed horses fade. I'll take him to hold off a late-running Mandarin Hero at the wire, with Disarm passing tired runners to juice up the trifecta.
Ashley Tamulonis, From Coast to Coast
Winner: No. 14 Angel of Empire
On the board: No. 6 Kingsbarns
Long shot I like: No. 4 Confidence Game
Analysis: Angel of Empire has just kept defying expectations, vaulting from Cox's third-stringer to his best Derby bet. I like that he already has two nine-furlong wins. Kingsbarns took the race that's closest to the Kentucky Derby in terms of distance and did so in only his third career start. I don't love the layoff for Confidence Game, but he is 4: 2-0-1 at Churchill Downs. I'll be using these three along with Tapit Trice, Reincarnate and Mandarin Hero in exotic wagering.
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 8 Mage
On the board: No. 5 Tapit Trice, No. 17 Derma Sotogake, No. 22 Mandarin Hero
Long shot I like: No. 8 Mage
Analysis: Mage has not raced as much as his foes, but he showed a lot of maturity in the Florida Derby (G1) by overcoming a poor break, being knocked off his natural style and still making a run that would have won the race if not for Forte. Tapit Trice also showed increased maturity in his final prep, breaking better and overcoming a rail draw in a big Blue Grass field. Mandarin Hero ran too good to lose in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and can improve in his second stateside race. Derma Sotogake can get a good forward trip, and he appears better than most UAE Derby horses who come to Kentucky.
From a wagering perspective, Mage is the win bet while Tapit Trice is the key horse for intra-race exotics.