Horse Racing Nation expert picks: Hollywood Gold Cup
The feature of the long holiday weekend is the historic Grade 1, $400,000 Hollywood Gold Cup, now run at Santa Anita. The 1 1/4-mile dirt race, set for 7:44 p.m. EDT, showcases six older horses going that classic distance.
Trainer Bob Baffert sends out two of the best-proven handicap horses in the country in Defunded and Country Grammer. They stand to be heavy favorites, with Defunded expected to be a shorter price than his stablemate because of his better recent form. But even in a race where horses seem obvious at first blush, it is worth asking the tough questions about where to find betting value in the race.
Below is how the experts at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the Hollywood Gold Cup.
Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Winner: No. 4 Defunded
On the board: No. 1 Country Grammer
Long shot I like: No. 2 Señor Buscador
Analysis: My usual advice is to take the other Baffert, but it is not clear which one is the one and which one is the other one. Get all that? Defunded is in the midst of strong form cycle in his last five races. Country Grammer is coming off a long trip to the Middle East. Those two factors swung the pendulum for me. Señor Buscador seems to be growing into his own as a legitimate handicap horse. He might not be a champion in the making, but he certainly is competitive.
Jarrod Horak, Today's Best Bet
Winner: No. 4 Defunded
On the board: No. 1 Country Grammer
Long shot I like: No. 6 Kiss Today Goodbye
Analysis: Defunded can beat his stablemate Country Grammer. The former likes this oval and has run several quality races in the stakes ranks. The latter enjoys this 1 1/4-mile trip and won this event in 2021. This is his first start since a disappointing effort in the Dubai World Cup (G1). Kiss Today Goodbye occasionally jumps up and runs a big race. He has stamina and might impact the exotics.
Exacta: 1-4/6
Trifecta Key: 4/1-6
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
Winner: No. 1 Country Grammer
On the board: No. 4 Defunded
Long shot I like: No. 5 Piroli
Analysis: Country Grammer might seem like the logical choice given he loves 10 furlongs, but he also enters off a bad fade in the Dubai World Cup and he does not get any younger as a 6-year-old horse. Defunded looks sharper of the Bob Baffert-trained pair after his easy win in the local Californian Stakes, but he remains without a win at 10 furlongs. Señor Buscador might continue to move forward after his fourth-place finish in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). Maybe the improved Piroli can grab a piece for trainer Michael McCarthy and finish second or third underneath some combination of the three names mentioned above.
Exacta wheel: 1,2,4 / 5
Trifecta wheel: 1,2,4 / 1,2,4 / 5
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 5 Piroli
On the board: No. 1 Country Grammer, No. 4 Defunded
Long shot I like: No. 5 Piroli
Analysis: The Baffert pair comes into the Hollywood Gold Cup as a mostly strong one-two punch: Country Grammer is the more proven 1 1/4-mile horse, and Defunded has the stronger current form. On the other hand, there are reasons both will be underlaid: Defunded has yet to prove that he is more than an underneath type at a mile and a quarter and Country Grammer comes off a flat Dubai World Cup.
When a Michael McCarthy horse looks ambitiously placed, the trainer usually has a very shrewd reason. For one example, he won last year's Hollywood Gold Cup with There Goes Harvard in his graded debut. Piroli could do the same thing: He should be sharp second off the lay, and being by the tenacious Battle of Midway out of a Tapit mare, he can benefit from stretching to 1 1/4 miles for the first time. This makes him worth a swing.