Horse Racing Nation expert picks: Fountain of Youth
The Gulfstream Park spur of the Kentucky Derby trail heats up Saturday in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. The 1 1/16-mile race drew a field of nine including two of the marquee names in the futures books: Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity winner Locked and Grade 2 Remsen winner Dornoch. However, at this time of the season anything can happen, and a new face like Victory Avenue or Speak Easy might step up at just the right time.
This is how writers at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 8 Locked
On the board: No. 3 Victory Avenue
Long shot I like: No. 4 Real Macho
Analysis: Locked was mine and the public's pick to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He was a valiant third behind two good ones that day, Fierceness and Muth, and I just don't see anything in this race to suggest he won't prove himself best of this group. Of course, price is always the final arbiter. I'd want 8-to-5 if Speak Easy is running and 3-to-2 if he's not.
Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Winner: No. 8 Locked
On the board: No. 3 Victory Avenue, No. 5 Dornoch
Long shot I like: No. 1 Speak Easy
Analysis: The combination of early speed to chase in this race, two-turn experience and a strong finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile make Locked the best chance to win this race. I may be stubborn downgrading the Remsen, but I do. Since I am skeptical about Sierra Leone, I am about Dornoch, too. Besides, he will not offer fair value this weekend. Victory Avenue with a better break from the gate conceivably could lead this from gate to wire, but that is a big if. Speak Easy might not be a true long shot from an odds point of view, and even though I was not about to be wowed by his winning the de facto Hidden Scroll Stakes on the Pegasus undercard, he still might be a cut above the rest of these.
Jarrod Horak, Today's Best Bet
Winner: No. 5 Dornoch
On the board: No. 8 Locked
Long shot I like: No. 3 Victory Avenue
Analysis: Dornoch won a productive renewal of the Remsen last time, and he has the tactical edge over his main rival Locked. A fever knocked the latter out of the Sam F. Davis last month. Speak Easy should show speed from the rail, and Victory Avenue is a promising son of Arrogate.
Wagers: No. 5 Dornoch to win, Exacta 5-8, Trifecta key 5/1-3-8
Mark Midland, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 1 Speak Easy
On the board: No. 8 Locked
Long shot I like: No. 9 Dancing Groom
Analysis: Speak Easy was very impressive in his debut. There's so much speed in here, look for Irad Ortiz, Jr. to take back off the pace slightly and be in the perfect position on the inside. Stablemate Locked looks dangerous as the big closer getting the setup, but he's missed some time so his rally may fall flat, especially into the short stretch of the 1 1/16-mile races at Gulfstream. As a long shot, use no. 9 Dancing Groom underneath for some big trifecta and supefecta possibilities.
Ashley Tamulonis, From Coast to Coast
Winner: No. 5 Dornoch
On the board: No. 8 Locked
Long shot I like: No. 7 Frankie's Empire
Analysis: Speed looks to reign supreme here with only three confirmed front-runners and one of those likely to scratch. I'm giving the nod to Dornoch over Locked as Dornoch will have the advantage of making his own luck. I'll be using Frankie's Empire underneath and Speak Easy if he runs.
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 8 Locked
On the board: No. 3 Victory Avenue, no. 5 Dornoch
Long shot I like: No. 4 Real Macho
Analysis: Two horses come into the Fountain of Youth as the clear class of the field, Locked and Dornoch. The slight advantage goes to Locked, a Grade 1 winner at this distance who has shown a little more versatility pace-wise.
Dornoch is a proven two-turn horse who beat a good one last out in Sierra Leone, though he is going to have to work for it every step of the way up front. Victory Avenue may be one of the ones making him work, but he does have a lot of upside stretching to two turns. Among longer shots, consider Real Macho, who is bred for distance and finally tries a route without blinkers.