Expert picks: See how to play $1.5 million Arkansas Derby
Saturday afternoon features a pair of 100-point races on the road to the Kentucky Derby: the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Both races have a couple of marquee names: Fierceness and Conquest Warrior in Florida, Timberlake and Muth in Arkansas.
However, both races also feature a large group of foes trying to show that they can take the step up just in time to punch their tickets to the run for the roses.
This is how writers at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the pair of Kentucky Derby preps Saturday afternoon:
Florida Derby
Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Fierceness
On the board: Conquest Warrior
Long shot I like: Seminole Chief
Analysis: The champ is back! I'm not as sour on his comeback as many others. You never like to lose at 1-to-5, but his best races crush this group.
Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Winner: Hades
On the board: Conquest Warrior, Fierceness
Long shot I like: Grand Mo the First
Analysis: I would love Fierceness a lot more if not for that confounded draw. One day Gulfstream Park will make a double-digit post a fair fate for 1 1/8-mile races. Until then, and with the odds he will carry, I must look elsewhere. Where better than an undefeated colt who uncorked a 90 Beyer from Daily Racing Form to beat Fierceness in the Holy Bull (G3)? Hades also looks like he has that push-button style to make him less pace dependent, which may be important if Fierceness does not find his way through the crowd and into the early lead. Fierceness and $1 million baby Conquest Warrior should hit the board. If one of them does not, don't be surprised to see Grand Mo the First, who looks like he wants the longer distance.
Jarrod Horak, Today's Best Bet
Winner: Fierceness
On the board: Conquest Warrior
Long shot I like: Catalytic
Analysis: Fierceness is the fastest horse overall and can bounce back in this spot. He is training forwardly for this and should be in the hunt throughout. Conquest Warrior is ready for this stakes appearance after a nice allowance win at 1 1/8 miles. Catalytic stretches out after two good sprint efforts and can spice up the exotics.
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Grand Mo the First
On the board: Fierceness, Hades
Long shot I like: Le Dom Bro
Analysis: Holy Bull winner Hades should be forward under Paco Lopez and Fierceness can bounce back with a better start, but at a big price there is a lot to like about Grand Mo the First. He comes third off the lay, he has good tactical speed, and both his race performance and his pedigree suggest the extra half-furlong can move him forward. Le Dom Bro ran a quality second in the Fountain of Youth (G2), his first two-turn try on fast dirt, and can find exotics again at a price.
Arkansas Derby
Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Mystik Dan
On the board: Timberlake
Long shot I like: Time for Truth
Analysis: Yes, Mystik Dan had a great trip in the slop to earn his fast figure last out, but fact is we can get third choice on the best-last out figure, so I'm going to take it.
Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Winner: Liberal Arts
On the board: Muth, Timberlake
Long shot I like: Just Steel
Analysis: The goo did Liberal Arts no favors in the Southwest (G3) in his first race back from a three-month break. The better weather and a potentially hot pace in front of him could be the elixir for a big price. Of course Muth and Timberlake should hit the board. One may win, but at those odds? Just Steel has raced something like 100 times already for D. Wayne Lukas, who has been known to have a successful long shot or two at Oaklawn. Fast, early fractions would help this horse who already had raced nearly twice as much as his daddy ever did.
Jarrod Horak, Today's Best Bet
Winner: Liberal Arts
On the board: Timberlake
Long shot I like: Just Steel
Analysis: Liberal Arts showed nice late energy in the Southwest. He has been gearing up for this race for several weeks and can make an impact if the pace heats up. Timberlake exits a solid score in the Rebel Stakes (G2). He should save ground stalking the pace. Just Steel was hung out to dry in the Rebel. He can compete for a minor award if he works out a better trip.
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Timberlake
On the board: Just Steel, Muth
Long shot I like: Time for Truth
Analysis: Timberlake and Muth are the class of the field, and both have good tactical speed, but Timberlake gets the edge thanks to his local two-turn win in the Rebel (G2). Though Just Steel would be a surprise on the win end, he has hit the board in two of the local preps and a trip a little closer to the speed could help him do so again. Time for Truth cedes experience to his foes but could be fast enough early to lead a game of catch-me-if-you-can.