HorseCenter: Picks for top-level juvenile stakes at 3 tracks

Although the 3-year-olds and older males are having banner seasons on the racetrack, it is the 2-year-olds who are the future of American racing. This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman take a look at many of the best young horses in the nation as they handicap and offer top picks for the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes from Aqueduct, the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) from Keeneland, and the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) from Santa Anita.

In New York, It’s Our Time will have the opportunity to build on his sensational debut performance at Saratoga when he headlines a field of nine in the historic Champagne. Trained by Tom Amoss, the Not This Time colt blitzed his competition by 17 3/4 lengths in fast time in mid-August and looms a heavy favorite in the one-mile affair on Saturday.

Meanwhile in Kentucky, Ted Noffey is already a Grade 1 winner, having romped home impressively in the Hopeful Stakes to raise his record to 2-for-2. The Into Mischief colt will face a strong field as the favorite in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Futurity on Saturday. And in California, Bob Baffert has a quartet set to go in the American Pharoah, with his pair of Desert Gate and Kristofferson expected to vie for favoritism.

Brian: Matt, let’s start at Aqueduct and work our way west. All eyes will be on It’s Our Time after sprinting away from a highly regarded colt in his first career start. The son of Not This Time has been working well at Churchill Downs since that bomb of a debut seven weeks ago. He will stretch out from 6 1/2 furlongs to a flat mile, which can be testing, but he is bred to handle it and sure looked strong down the stretch. He is clearly the one to beat in this Grade 1 race, and his odds will reflect that.

Matt: Right after the blockbuster victory by It’s Our Time at Saratoga, trainer Tom Amoss made the Champagne the goal for his talented 2-year-old. He shipped back to Churchill Downs shortly after his maiden victory and has three workouts showing. It’s Our Time will be a heavy favorite in a Champagne field of nine lightly raced juveniles, where eight of them have only a maiden victory and only three of them have any stakes experience.

Brian: Curtain Call is the most experienced horse in the race and has faced good competition in a couple of his races. The Tiz the Law colt could not match strides with Ted Noffey down the lane when finishing third in the Hopeful, but that is not a big knock against him. With three solid races under his belt, the Mark Casse should be respected as he tries Grade 1 company for the second straight time.

Matt: Curtain Call is experienced, but that is with only three starts. He was second in his debut, but the top three finishers in that race came back to win their next starts. He broke his maiden in a Saratoga race scratched down to five after rain made it a sloppy and sealed track. Casse has two entered as he tries to win the Champagne for the first time. His regular rider Jose Ortiz is staying in Kentucky, but aggressive rider Ricardo Santana Jr. gets the mount.

Brian: Besides the favorite, several horses coming out of Saratoga maiden races have things to like. One of them is the maiden Stradale, who could be part of a strong early pace here. Napoleon Solo and Universe both flashed potential while easily winning their debuts, but Talkin might be the most interesting of the bunch.

A son of Good Magic, the Danny Gargan-trained runner was a $600,000 yearling purchase and had to work for the victory in his debut. In fact, Stradale looked home free in the seven-furlong maiden race at Saratoga, but Talkin finished with a rush to win as the rest of the field was left far back. All in all, it was a strong debut performance that should set him up for a move forward here.

Matt: Stradale was a heavy favorite in both of his starts for Steve Asmussen, who won the Champagne in 2020 with Jackie’s Warrior. Talkin was making his first start going seven furlongs, which is difficult for inexperienced 2-year-olds. He was a 9-1 winner on that day and sure looked like the one-turn mile should suit him well.

Casse’s other runner Just Asap could be a live long shot. He won his debut at Ellis Park in the beginning of August by seven lengths and then was second by a neck in the Sapling at Monmouth Park going a two-turn mile. Interestingly, Florent Geroux will come up from his home base in Kentucky to stay on board.

Napoleon Solo will make his second start for Gold Square and Chad Summers, and those connections have been doing well with young horses the last few years. Owner Al Gold usually has interesting names for his horses. Brian, I remember the character Napoleon Solo from the 1960s television spy series the Man from U.N.C.L.E.

Brian: Man from U.N.C.L.E. was not one that I watched, Matt. Not to be a shameless homer, but I see this Breeders’ Futurity field as the strongest of the trio, and it starts with Ted Noffey.

The handsome son of Into Mischief was very good in winning his debut in August at Saratoga, but then he took things up to an exciting new level when he sprinted away from his foes last time in the Hopeful (G1). If he can stretch out as effectively to 1 1/16 miles here and in the Breeders’ Cup, we could be looking at a champion here. Having said that, he has only sprinted at Saratoga so far, and this is a good-looking field.

Matt: Brian, I think that you were not even born when that TV show was on the air. The Breeders’ Futurity is clearly the strongest of the trio of juvenile Grade 1 races on Saturday. The field of seven in Kentucky has four stakes winners, and three of them were graded. The Champagne is without any kind of stakes winner at all, and the American Pharoah has one graded-stakes winner in its field of six.

Ted Noffey was an impressive open-length winner of the Hopeful, and that was going seven furlongs. The two turns will be a test, but his running style fits Keeneland well. Maybe the one-turn mile in the Champagne would have been ideal, but with Spendthrift as the owner it is understandable that they chose the Breeders’ Futurity.

Brian: Blackout Time is yet another impressive young Not This Time colt to talk about. He ran a good second in his debut to the ill-fated and very talented Dazzle d’Oro and then came back with an eye-opening win going a flat mile at Ellis Park. Given plenty of time between races and working well, he should be ready for his stakes debut. Of all the challengers to Ted Noffey on Saturday, this Kenny McPeek charge is the one that most interests me.

Matt: Blackout Time beat a field of 12 in that maiden victory and the second- and third-place finishers came back to win their next starts. He went two turns going a mile and won by almost 10 lengths. Cristian Torres will take over the riding duties since Brian Hernandez Jr. is injured.

Brian: A legitimate case could be made for every other horse in the race. Ewing is very fast and already a graded-stakes winner. Big Dom was a good winner in his debut and should want added ground. Litmus Test tangled with good horses last time and is eligible to move forward. Spice Runner is an improving colt with excellent pedigree. Diciassette is perfect in two starts in Florida. A good performance from any of them would come as no surprise here.

Matt: Ewing and Diacassette bring 2-for-2 records to Keeneland. Ewing is trained by Mark Casse and won his races with front-end trips at Saratoga in small fields. He had a 12-length maiden score during the Belmont at Saratoga meeting and then won the Saratoga Special (G2), which had four horses. Diaciassette is a Florida-bred son of Mitole who was a heavy favorite when he got his maiden victory and then also in a stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Brian: Moving to Santa Anita, trainer Bob Baffert has owned this race for about three decades, and he holds another strong hand this year with four of the six entered. His Desert Gate should go favored after three solid races in which he won twice easily before a troubled trip caused a second in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). The Omaha Beach colt will break from the rail and is the one to beat.

Matt: Small fields are an ongoing issue in horse racing. A field of six in a Grade 1 race is not a positive, but when one trainer has four of them that makes the problem even worse. Baffert has the 3-2 morning line favorite Desert Gate and the 9-5 second choice of Kristofferson.

Brian: The three stablemates of Desert Gate all are in with a chance here. Kristofferson should be a strong second choice after a very good debut win. The Nyquist colt had to work the whole way and prevailed over another talented colt in his debut at Del Mar five weeks ago. He will have the timeless Mike Smith aboard and could go right after the early lead. The other two Baffert runners, Balboa and Plutarch, will need to improve, but both have flashed potential to be graded-stakes horses.

Matt: Desert Gate won his maiden and the Best Pal (G2) by a combined 11 lengths as a heavy favorite each time. In the Del Mar Futurity, Desert Gate was 6-1 because another Baffert horse, Brant, was sent off at odds of .10-1 and won the race. The Futurity also featured four horses from Baffert who were joined by two from Doug O’Neill.

Brian: Although Baffert looks strong, the other two horses in the field cannot be dismissed. Civil Liberty was third in the Del Mar Futurity and is bred to appreciate the stretch-out to 8 1/2 furlongs. He ran against Brant in each of his two starts and is a threat to break his maiden in the American Pharoah for trainer Doug O’Neill. And finally, Intrepido was a nice maiden winner going a mile in his second career start. Coming off a sharp workout, the Maximus Mischief colt could surprise here.

Matt: Brant was a $3 million purchase at the Ocala March sale for 2-year-olds and is the leader of the west coast juvenile division. Since the Del Mar Futurity was on Sept. 7, he will train up to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Brian: In It’s Our Time, Ted Noffey and Desert Gate, it looks like we will have three heavy favorites in the trio of Grade 1 races. They all look good, but I do not want to pick chalk across the board, especially with inexperienced runners. I am going to try to beat two of the three as they stretch out to two turns for the first time. That means It’s Our Time will be my only favorite top pick. I see Talkin as the top threat, but at one turn, I really expect the favorite to win.

At Keeneland, I am going to give Blackout Time the nod. He has been a mile and done it impressively. As good as Ted Noffey was in the Hopeful, I do see the possibility of an upset as he stretches out and leaves Saratoga. And at Santa Anita, Civil Liberty has shown me enough in sprints to believe he is a talented horse who wants more distance. He will be my upset top pick in the American Pharoah.

Matt: I will also make It’s Our Time my top pick in the Champagne. A win in the Breeders’ Futurity will make Ted Noffey the favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and he will be my pick at Keeneland. At Santa Anita, I will go for an upset and take Intrepido to win the American Pharoah.