HorseCenter: Pennsylvania Derby, Cotillion Stakes top picks

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman offer their analysis and top picks for a big day of racing from Parx. The Bensalem, Pa., oval will offer seven stakes races on Saturday afternoon worth $3.2 million.

Leading the way will be a pair of Grade 1, $1 million races for 3-year-old males and 3-year-old fillies. Baeza and Scottish Lassie have been pegged as the morning-line favorites in the Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion Stakes, respectively.

After a strong string of performances running second or third in big races behind Sovereignty and Journalism, Baeza merits top billing in a deep field of 10 sophomore colts entered in the Pennsylvania Derby. Owned by C R K Stable and Grandview Equine, the third-place finisher in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes was a good second behind division leader Sovereignty last time in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2). Gosger and Goal Oriented, a close second and third in the Haskell Stakes (G1) last time, lead his challengers.

On the female side, the Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Good Cheer will look to break a two-race losing skid when she takes on a pair of two-time Grade 1 winners in Scottish Lassie and La Cara. Trained by Brad Cox, Good Cheer is 7-for-9 overall but is only the second choice on the morning line to Scottish Lassie, who won Saratoga’s Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) last month by 15 1/2 lengths.

Brian: Matt, let’s check out the ladies first. The Cotillion brings together some of the best 3-year-old fillies in the country, and it’s also a wide-open affair, in my opinion. I think the Parx oddsmaker probably has it right in predicting that Scottish Lassie will be the favorite based on her romping win in the CCA Oaks last time out.

The daughter of McKinzie is an oddity in that her only two career wins have come by large margins in Grade 1 races and a season apart. She hasn’t run poorly in her other four starts, but nothing like her two big victories. She is talented, for certain, but drawing the rail with other speed immediately to her outside, I don’t expect this to be easy for her.

Matt: Scottish Lassie is not the kind of favorite that interests me. There are just too many questions to ask, and those open-length victories will attract a lot of money at the windows. She won by more than 15 lengths in the CCA Oaks in a four-horse field. Immersive and Dry Powder were in there and they are good horses, but the race was basically over when Scottish Lassie got loose on the lead. The track at Parx can be quirky and deep and just might not suit Scottish Lassie as the New York tracks certainly do.

Brian: Good Cheer might be the safe play in the Cotillion. The Godolphin filly has proven her class with five stakes victories, and she was able to bounce back last time with a good performance in the Alabama (G1) after a puzzling effort in the Acorn (G1).

I think it’s fair to draw a line through her only poor race because of the track condition. With plenty of early speed in the race, she should have every chance to come with a rally here. Although she has proven vulnerable of late, I still consider her the one to beat on Saturday at Parx.

Matt: Good Cheer is one of three Grade 1 winners in the field. Her undefeated run of seven races is something that we do not see in racing very often anymore. There were five stakes races in the streak, including four graded stakes and culminating with her Kentucky Oaks victory. Good Cheer is a lot more attractive as the probable second choice than all those races in which she was an odds-on favorite. She was the favorite in all nine of her races.

Brian: La Cara has proven very dangerous when left to her own devices on the front end. If she can clear the field early in this 1 1/16-mile affair, the Ashland and Acorn winner could be a handful as they turn for home.

I think in the Alabama we learned that she doesn’t want to go that far against top competition. I would not be surprised to see her run much better as she cuts back in distance. How much pressure she gets early from the speed, which surrounds her in the starting gate, could tell the tale.

Matt:  La Cara has credentials as a millionaire and a multi-Grade 1 winner and is 7-2 on the morning line. The 10 furlongs of the Alabama was way too far for her and nine furlongs might even be a tad too long. Either way the Cotillion distance is probably ideal. Her only bad races were in the Kentucky Oaks and the Breeders’ Cup, but this Cotillion field is also pretty tough. Brian mentioned she could knock heads with Scottish Lassie, and they are right next to each other in the starting gate.

Brian: Of the others, I think Clicquot, Dry Powder and Indy Bay all merit consideration. Dry Powder had a nice win at Parx last time in the Cathryn Sophia. The CCA Oaks before that was not good, but she did bang the gate at the start. Indy Bay will be stretching out and should add to the early pace. She has won four of her last five and is bred to handle the distance.

Clicquot is the one I find the most interesting of all. Irad Ortiz Jr. will be aboard the lightly raced Quality Road filly who comes in off three straight easy wins. They came at three tracks, with the last two at the Cotillion distance. The Indiana Oaks (G3) winner will be tested for class, but further improvement should put her in the picture.

Matt: Dry Powder was proven on the track at Parx when she got a clear victory in an overflow field of 13. Her preferred running style is to press the pace, and she lost all chance of that happening in the CCA Oaks at the start. Luis Saez rode her in that Cotillion prep race, but he stays with Good Cheer.

Indy Bay has a great record with only top three finishes in seven starts, and her four victories include a pair of stakes. But she finds herself trying this route distance for the first time in a Grade 1 with a field of quality that she has never seen.

I saw an article where Brendan Walsh was talking about Clicquot. The usually reserved trainer was gushing superlatives when he talked about the daughter of Quality Road, who is 8-1 on the morning line. Irad’s endorsement certainly adds to her appeal.

Brian: Turning to the colts and the Pennsylvania Derby, if you believe that Sovereignty is the best horse in America, it’s hard not to like the race that Baeza ran last time in the Jim Dandy. Beaten by only a length, and way ahead of decent horses behind him, I believe it’s a performance that separates him from everyone else in the Pennsylvania Derby field.

A lot has been made about him having only one career win. Perhaps that will allow for playable odds in this deep field. When you race as well as he has against the kind of quality competition he has faced, it should be only a matter of time before he breaks through. Given plenty of early speed in this one to set the table, I have to like his chances to earn his first stakes win on Saturday.

Matt: There are no Grade 1 winners in the Pennsylvania Derby field, but a major factor in that happenstance is that the four major contenders in the field were chasing the top two 3-year-olds in the country in Sovereignty and Journalism. In Baeza’s last four starts he was beaten three times by both of them. Goal Oriented lost to Journalism in his two most recent races. Gosger finished second, beaten by a half-length by Journalilsm in his last starts. Magnitude was third in the Travers (G1) which, of course, was won by Sovereignty. Sovereignty and Journalism are training up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and the connections of those four Pennsylvania Derby contenders were hoping that would be the case when they circled this Saturday on the calendar.

Brian: Having beaten Goal Oriented in back-to-back races while narrowly missing the win in both of those Grade 1 stakes, Gosger should be considered the biggest threat to Baeza on Saturday. Since breaking his maiden nicely in February, it is surprising to me how little respect he has been given in each of his three graded-stakes tries. Can the trend continue here? The morning-line oddsmaker seems to think so. I expect another strong performance from the Nyquist colt.

Matt: Gosger looked like a winner in the Preakness and the Haskell with a furlong to go because at that point Journalism had not yet challenged the Brendan Walsh trainee. In the end Gosger could not hold off the determined rally that is Journalism's trademark, but he beat Goal Oriented by a neck in the Haskell and Sandman by more than two lengths in the Preakness.

Brian: Goal Oriented remains a promising horse after four good races to begin his career. At 5-2 on the morning line, however, it seems he is getting too much respect. I suppose a large part of that is his trainer Bob Baffert and his rider Irad Ortiz Jr. The Not This Time colt is a danger, but I really don’t want any part of him at low odds against this field. Gosger has beaten him in his last two races, and I don’t see good reason to expect a reversal here.

Matt: Baffert and Ortiz are the two biggest odds-movers in American racing because they win so many of the most important races in the country. Baffert won the Pennsylvania Derby four times already and Irad twice. The point being that Goal Oriented will be overbet. Aside from his two victories, which were in a maiden and an allowance, he did not really look like a winner in the Haskell and the Preakness.

Brian: After the top three, the rest of the field is filled with question marks. Can Magnitude bounce back from a poor effort in the Travers? Can Big Truzz or David of Athens move forward off impressive wins against lesser at Ellis Park? Is Mo Plex more dangerous this time with no Sovereignty in the field? All are possibilities but given the amount of early speed in the race and the class of the top three, I have my doubts on all of them.

The long shot I will play underneath a bit is So Sandy. He comes into this race off three strong races and is clearly a horse comfortable at the distance. Trainer Cherie DeVaux has him headed in the right direction, and I think his race in the Curlin Stakes last time was deceptively good.

Matt: Tyler Gaffalione is back at full strength after an injury and he chose to ride David of Athens for Brendan Walsh on Saturday over Big Truzz. Magnitude, Big Truzz and Mo Plex have visually impressive victories in a mid-major derby this summer. But it is too hard to choose one of the three to use in my wagers.

Brian: My strategy in betting the Cotillion will be to beat the favorite Scottish Lassie. I believe the ones who can do it on Saturday are Good Cheer, Clicquot and La Cara. Of the three, not only does the former have the most proven class, but she also is the one most likely to benefit from the strong early fractions that are expected. Her Alabama performance tells me she is back in good form. Good Cheer is my top pick.

Matt: Scottish Lassie is not for me in the Cotillion. I also will pass on the other Grade 1 winners, Good Cheer and La Cara. One of them is likely to win the big race for the 3-year-old fillies. Morning-line odds of 8-1 makes Clicquot an attractive contender. She will have to continue the improvement that she has shown in her last three victories. Clicquot is my top pick in the Cotillion.

Brian: It is easy to be seduced by a sharp performance or two. We saw that with the money Magnitude took in the Travers. Class, however, remains as important a handicapping tool as we have in racing. In this race, that points out Baeza, Gosger and, to some extent, Goal Oriented. At his best, like the Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby and Jim Dandy, I believe Baeza is the best of the bunch. He continues to work well and should get a nice pace set up here. Baeza is my top pick.

Matt: Brian, I agree with everything that you said about class and pace when you were making your pick for the Pennsylvania Derby. For me it points to Gosger. He was a half-length from winning the Preakness and the Haskell. He is training sharply for his chance to become a Grade 1 winner on Saturday and will probably be the third choice. Gosger is my top pick.