HorseCenter: Pacific Classic, Jockey Club Gold Cup top picks
This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman look back at an unforgettable day at Saratoga led by Sovereignty and Thorpedo Anna. With those terrific performances now in the rearview mirror, the guys set their sights on a pair of important win-and-you’re-in races this weekend for the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar.
On Saturday, Nysos, Journalism and Fierceness will square off in what promises to be an intriguing edition of the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. The 1 1/4-mile affair at Del Mar almost certainly will have an impact at the world championships. An impressive win by any of the top three will send them to the Breeders’ Cup as a major threat.
Then on Sunday, Saratoga will host a deep and talented edition of the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). Sierra Leone, winner of the Whitney (G1) last out, and Mindframe, winner of the Stephen Foster (G1) in his most recent start, will top the field. The historic race is far from a two-horse race, however. It has a number of other serious contenders, including White Abarrio, Highland Falls, Disarm, Antiquarian and Phileas Fogg.
Brian: The five Grade 1 races Saturday at Saratoga certainly did not disappoint. That is, unless you were trying to beat all the favorites. It turned out to be a chalk-eater's paradise, but that was only because of the quality of the winners.
As my favorite horse in many years, Thorpedo Anna did not make things easy on me in the Personal Ensign (G1). Seriously, though, I thought the champ ran a big race, all things considered. She had to work for it right from the gate and then had to hold off Dorth Vader, who was running the race of her life. Her bravery and desire were on full display, and it should set her up to move forward next time. A little close for comfort, but the race made me very happy. She now has seven Grade 1 wins as part of her sterling 15: 12-2-0 career record. Not too shabby.
Thorpedo Anna got it done one way, and Sovereignty did it another. I wondered what we could see from the Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner against an inferior Travers (G1) field, and I was not disappointed. I generally lean to older horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but Sovereignty is running too well to ignore right now. All in all, it was a fantastic day to be at the races.
Matt: Indeed, Sovereignty became the first horse since 1995 to win three biggest Grade 1 stakes for 3-year-olds in the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont and the Travers. He is a big, strong and powerful horse, and he won the Travers the way that a heavywight should. He overwhelmed the others down the stretch to win by more than 10 lengths. Junior Alvarado rides Sovereignty with so much confidence. Alvarado knows he is on the best horse and trusts Sovereignty to do whatever he is needed, not just to win but to dominate the race.
I certainly could not say that about Thorpedo Anna on Saturday. Right out of the gate she was in the worst possible position against a field that had plenty of quality. Racing widest of all in the first turn, she was sent up to contend the pace. Down the stretch she was all out to win a desperately close photo.
It was a great sequence of Grade 1s, and even though the favorites dominated there were opportunities to make money. Brian and I provided three Pick 5 plays that were small tickets and they all won.
Brian: Matt, the biggest aspect of handicapping the Pacific Classic for me will be to find the horse who can best answer the question this race will ask of them.
Nysos has never been farther than 1 1/16 miles. Can he beat top horses at the classic distance?
Journalism has never faced older horses before. Can he beat two of the best on his first attempt?
Fierceness had little run when asked at the head of the stretch of the Whitney. Can he bounce back and show he is as good this year as he was last year?
Matt: The 1 1/4-mile distance is a big test for horses whether they are 3-year-olds or older. We know Journalism can handle the distance and then some. Take away Sovereignty and Journalism is the best 3-year-old in the country. Actually, Sovereignty and Journalism are ranked above Nysos in the lastest NTRA Top Thoroughbred poll.
Fierceness has been hard to figure out his entire career. When he is at his best, he is excellent as he was last year in the Travers going the classic distance against a star-studded field. But the Repole Stable and Todd Pletcher runner has turned in plenty of head-scratchers.
Brian: Nysos has been talked about in glowing terms since before his first start nearly two years ago. He missed plenty of time along the way, but he is finally healthy enough to string together several races, and he has looked very good. Only a neck margin stands between him and a perfect record, and that defeat came when returning from a long layoff. He is tractable and fast, which is often a lethal combination in Southern California. Having said all that, he will be under 2-1 on Saturday while seriously stretching out in distance and facing two very good horses. I fear him, but I don’t know if I want him at the odds.
Matt: Nysos is going to be asked to do things on the racetrack that he has not done to date. Most notably, run 10 furlongs while trying to win a Grade 1 for the first time against the toughest field that he has faced. His only career loss came in the Churchill Downs (G1) in May going seven furlongs when a late rally fell a neck short in a blanket finish of the top three.
Brian: I have believed for several months that we are looking at a very good crop of 3-year-old males. Sovereignty leads the way, but Journalism is a big part of the reason I speak so highly of the sophomore boys. This Curlin colt is quite amazing. This will be his eighth graded-stakes race in approximately eight months, and he just keeps running big and then immediately bouncing back strongly in the mornings. He is a throwback to horses of another era. He has won at Del Mar and has run well at the distance. Even in facing older for the first time, I consider him the one to beat in the Pacific Classic.
Matt: In his last five races, Journalism ran in five Grade 1 stakes at five tracks across the country, winning the Haskell, the Preakness and the Santa Anita Derby. His two losses were in the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes to Sovereignty. I agree, Brian, that Journalism is the horse to beat in the Pacific Classic.
Brian: I have a feeling that Fierceness will be somewhat ignored by bettors after his dud in the Whitney. I’m not saying he's going to be 8-1 or something, but compared to Nysos and Journalism, I do believe that he will have attractive odds. Don’t forget, he was the Whitney favorite for a reason. We also should not forget that in his two previous trips to Southern California, he responded with a big effort. Wouldn’t a repeat of his Breeders’ Cup Classic performance be very tough to beat here? The Whitney performance worries me, like everyone else, but this horse has made a career of bouncing back. I believe he has a real shot on Saturday.
Matt: The main reason Fierceness is traveling to Del Mar for the Pacific Classic is to keep the two top Repole Stable horses separated, with Mindframe running in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) on Sunday. It certainly does not hurt that Fierceness ran so well last year in the Breeders’ Cup last year at Del Mar.
I am not sure who will be the favorite, Journalism or Nysos. Journalism deserves to be the favorite based on his record, earnings and performance on the Kentucky Derby trail and in the Triple Crown races. But the betting public usually prefers Baffert’s horses. No doubt that Fierceness will come with the highest odds he has had in a long time.
Brian: The Pacific Classic has a big three, and the Jockey Club Gold Cup counters with a big two and a much deeper overall field. Sierra Leone, off a strong Whitney victory, looms a slight choice over his rival Mindframe, as both look to head into the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the right way.
Sierra Leone once again will be aided by a rabbit in the field, which he used to his advantage last time. With a strong early pace a near certainty, the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic looms as the one to beat on Sunday. Improving with each start this year for trainer Chad Brown, it should be a perfect time for Sierra Leone to turn the tables on Mindframe.
Matt: When Sierra Leone gets a fast early pace, he is very hard to beat. He is proven winner at 10 furlongs as are a few others in the field, but Mindframe is not one of them. In his only try at the classic distance in the Belmont Stakes of 2024, he had the lead and was overtaken by Dornoch but was ahead of Sierra Leone.
Brian: Undefeated in three starts this year, Mindframe brings plenty to the table in this race and beyond. The Constitution colt never has turned in a poor performance and seems tractable enough to be off the pace if need be. Getting the jump on Sierra Leone was crucial in the Stephen Foster, but going 10 furlongs here, I am not so sure he can hold him off this time. He is a dangerous rival.
As is Highland Falls, the winner of this race last year. The 5-year-old might be even better this year. A sharp allowance score was followed by a game Whitney performance where he was clearly second best. He has a similar running style to Mindframe, and like the Whitney, this race could see a quick strike at the tiring leaders on the far turn. If you like anyone after the top two, the odds should be right on Sunday.
Matt: Highland Falls has a top-notch resume with 10 top-three finishes from 12 starts. Last year he beat a field of seven in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. That was a visually impressive victory but the field in this year’s race is much tougher, closer to kind of field he faced in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic when he finished an uncompetitive ninth. In the Whitney this year he was second to Sierra Leone but was clear of the rest of the field, which included Disarm in third.
Brian: Other than the rabbit, a case could be made for every other horse in the field. I thought White Abarrio’s Whitney was sneaky good, and he certainly has looked good in the mornings. Antiquarian has been unlucky not to have won both of his last two races and also has looked good in the mornings.
If you are in search of a live long shot in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and who isn’t, don’t forget about Disarm. I’m not saying he will win this, but I do like him to rally up for a piece. He is certainly not a horse who wins big races, but given a fast pace, he should be passing tiring horses here. Second in the Travers two years ago, he will be used liberally underneath in my vertical tickets.
Matt: Honestly, Brian, I am not sure what to think of the current version of the 6-year-old White Abarrio. Since leaving his home base at Gulfstream Park he finished fourth twice in the Grade 1 races at Saratoga. In Florida he had an excellent four races after he returned to the barn of Saffie Joseph Jr. from that of Rick Dutrow. Dutrow had him in 2023 when he won the Whitney and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He is 8-1 on the morning line, which would be odds at which he would deserve consideration.
Brian: I fear Nysos, but given the distance and his low odds, I will try to beat him in the Pacific Classic. Journalism should rally and should run another strong race, but he will probably be under 2-1 as well. The 3-year-old is the one to beat, especially getting six pounds from his older rivals, but I am going with the value in this one. Fierceness has run big races in his trips to California before, and the odds will be right after his Whitney disappointment. I am looking for him to go right to the lead from the rail and hoping Johnny V. can work his magic from there. Last time he had odds like these was the Travers when he paid $9.80 to win. Fierceness is my top pick.
Matt: For me, the Pacific Classic is choice between Fierceness and Journalism. My concerns about Nysos getting the distance combined with his likely short odds eliminate him from win consideration for me. If this group of 3-year-olds is as good as we think, then Journalism is a horse to be reckoned with as he faces older horses at Del Mar on Saturday. I just do not want to play the guessing game about whether this will be one of the days when Fierceness brings his “A” game. Journalism will be my top pick in the Pacific Classic.
Brian: Although I already mentioned that Disarm will be a horse I am using underneath in the exotics, I really believe the Jockey Club Gold Cup is Sierra Leone’s race to win. Much like last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, he will get the perfect scenario of 10 furlongs and strong early fractions. Going good right now, he is my strong choice on top. Sierra Leone for the win.
Matt: Sierra Leone might be at his best in what has already been an excellent career. Now he gets his favorite 10-furlong distance and a fast pace, which will make him a powerful horse down the stretch at Saratoga on Sunday. Sierra Leone is my top pick in the Gold Cup.