HorseCenter: Breeders’ Cup Classic 2025 contenders, odds

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman take a deep dive into what promises to be one of the strongest Breeders’ Cup Classic fields in recent memory. An excellent trio of sophomores, a strong group of older horses and a formidable shipper from Japan could make this a race to talk about for years to come, and your hosts offer early odds and analysis on all the top contenders.

Grade 1 winners Journalism and Baeza have proven to be very nice 3-year-olds this season, but the pair of consistent runners are living in the world of Sovereignty. The favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Classic could not be looking much better after four straight big wins in Kentucky and New York.

Among the older horses, the top two finishers from last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, Sierra Leone and Fierceness, lead a deep group of older males looking to knock off the younger favorite. They both will enter the Classic in good form and should offer a legitimate threat to Sovereignty. 

Brian: Matt, let’s start with the 3-year-olds. Sovereignty has earned favoritism in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on the strength of four consecutive powerhouse wins in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, Grade 2 Jim Dandy and Travers (G1). Seeing him in person roll up the score on his competition at Saratoga was a treat. He has always been a strapping colt, and he continues to mature physically in the barn of trainer Bill Mott. In short, he is imposing.

As visually impressive as the Travers was, however, I can’t help but consider the huge difference in competition that he will face in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. As he heads west for the first time in his career, he will face a field that includes not only his two closest rivals in his own division, but a slew of seasoned veterans. His first race against older horses will include a number of tough opponents. He is so good it might not matter, but it is something to consider as the clear favorite.

Matt: Sovereignty deserves to be the favorite in the Classic and is a formidable horse. At this point, his biggest challenges will come from the older horses because he is proven to be a cut above Journalism and Baeza.

Sovereignty will face older horses for the first time in his career in the Classic. That is not unusual. Actually, that is the status quo. That last five 3-year-olds to win the Classic had not faced older horses prior to the Breeders’ Cup. Those five horses are a list of racing superstars: Sierra Leone, Authentic, Arrogate, American Pharoah and Bayern.

The question that needs to be answered is whether Sovereignty measures up to that elite group of 3-year-olds.

Brian: Journalism disappointed many in his last race when facing older horses for the first time and his rally fell clearly short of catching Fierceness in the Pacific Classic (G1). That was a pretty short field, though, and he should see a very different type of race in the Breeders’ Cup. Still, I wonder if we have seen enough improvement from the Curlin colt in the last several months to expect him to turn the tables next time. He has proven to be an excellent Grade 1 performer in all seven starts this year, but unfortunately, that just might not be enough in 2025.

One advantage he will have over his top rival will be running at Del Mar. Sovereignty will be making the trip west for the first time, but Journalism is a California horse and right at home at Del Mar.

Matt: The home-track experience in nothing to ignore, and it is certainly a plus when you consider Journalism as a possible winner of the Classic. 

After last weekend we need to take a look back at the Haskell Stakes (G1), which was the most recent victory for Journalism. In the big race at Monmouth Park in July, Journalism used his determined closing move to beat Gosger by a half-length, and Goal Oriented was a head back in third. Last Saturday’s Pennsylvania Derby (G1) results, with Goal Oriented finishing third and Gosger sixth, did not flatter Journalism as those former competitors were never a threat to win the big race at Parx. 

Brian: Like Journalism, Baeza will get to run against Sovereignty at his home in Southern California. The beautifully bred colt is a late foal and still on the improve. He has travelled well four times now, and the Pennsylvania Derby should give him confidence. Back in Southern California, I expect a good performance from him on Nov. 1. I don’t know whether that will be enough to threaten for the win, but I certainly cannot count him out. With a little more improvement, the youngest horse on this list is a candidate to make noise at attractive odds for trainer John Shirreffs at the Classic.

By the way, I believe the fact that Sovereignty, Journalism and Baeza have remained the top three sophomores every step of the way since the first Saturday in May speaks to the overall quality of the trio. It’s become rare to see the best horses of the early spring carry that form through all three legs of the Triple Crown, dominate the summer and be ready for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the fall. That is exactly what the three have done this year, and it would come as no surprise to see all three run their race in the big one at Del Mar.

Matt: Baeza seems to be a 3-year-old who still has room to improve. He looked like a winner for every step of the final six furlongs in the Pennsylvania Derby. His trainer John Shirreffs knows how to patiently develop a horse and to win big races like he did in the 2009 Classic with Zenyatta. Baeza should run well in the Breeders’ Cup but probably not well enough to win it.

In conclusion, here is a ranking of the 3-year-old Classic contenders with Sovereignty on top, Baeza second and Journalism third.

Brian: I know Mindframe lost his rider in the early going, but I’m not sure he had the worst trip in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). That’s how bad it was for Sierra Leone. Still, he made a big run to be second, which backed up his win in the Whitney (G1) in the race before. The defending champ of the Breeders’ Cup Classic is in strong form and a top threat once again. 

All he needs is a good early pace to best set the table for his late run. If he gets that, he has a real chance to join Tiznow as only the second repeat winner in the Classic. If not, the winner of 5-for-13 lifetime likely will have to settle for a minor award as he has in so many of his races. 

Matt: Sierra Leone has run a lot for a Chad Brown trainee, with 13 starts in two calendar years. He won his debut as a 2-year-old on Nov. 4, 2023, and never ran worse than third while racing only in Grade 1 and 2 stakes. His five victories include two on the Kentucky Derby trail, the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Whitney. It is worth remembering that he missed a Kentucky Derby win by a nose after an eight-wide trip.

His career is a picture of consistency in terms of top-three finishes but also the way he comes running with that late closing move every time regardless of the pace. But when the fractions are fast, Sierra Leone is hard to beat.

Brian: Fierceness brought his best to Del Mar for the second year in a row when he overcame a sharp duck in early to win the Pacific Classic in style. It was his third strong race in Southern California in as many tries. Given space between races, the Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up in 2024 looks poised to run well again. 

In last year’s edition, he pushed a suicidal early pace and still was good enough to finish second. With five weeks to go, there does not appear to be as much early speed pointing for the race this year. The favorite last year, Fierceness should be considered one of the top contenders once again.

Matt: The fifth-place finish of Fierceness in the Whitney with no apparent excuses certainly had me thinking that maybe his best days were in the past. Less than a month later, Fierceness reminded us of how good he really is when he is on the top of his game as the victory by more than three lengths showed us in the Pacific Classic.

Todd Pletcher heads to the California with possibly three runners led by Repole Stable runners Fierceness and Mindframe.

Brian: Mindframe is a talented horse. He showed this early on with two impressive wins to start his career. The son of Constitution then stepped up and ran well to be second to Dornoch in both the Belmont and the Haskell. Those were strong performances so early in his career, but on the other hand, he was outfinished in both. 

Will he be stronger this year at 4? I’m still not sure. He has done little wrong this year in winning his first three races before the unfortunate circumstances of the Jockey Club Gold Cup. But I do wonder if he is battle-tested enough to handle such a tough field at 10 furlongs at this stage. 

Matt: Mindframe has a pair of Grade 1 wins this year in the Churchill Downs on Derby day and then in June in the Stephen Foster, where he beat Sierra Leone. Take away the JCGC and the Maryland-bred’s record is amazing with five wins and two seconds from seven starts.

Pletcher has only one Breeders’ Cup Classic victory on his Hall of Fame resume, and that was in 2019 with Vino Rosso. Mindframe reunites those winning connections of Irad Ortiz Jr. and Repole Stable with Pletcher.

Brian: I did not like the ride Forever Young received last year in the Classic when he was right behind a brutal early pace and then was shut off turning for home. He responded well to rally for third, but I believe he would have fared better with a good trip. He looked great overseas after that, highlighted by running down Romantic Warrior in the Saudi Cup (G1). 

Probably a bit spent after that tough race, he fell short in a quick return for the Dubai World Cup (G1). Freshened up and filled out since then, he will return to the races in Japan next week in preparation for a return to Del Mar. I continue to believe that he is one of the best dirt horses in the world, and I think he will offer strong value in this year’s edition. 

Matt: Forever Young missed winning the Kentucky Derby by a narrow margin when he was third in a blanket finish at 7-1. His second American appearance produced a third-place finish in the Classic last year at 4-1 as Brian described. With this star-studded edition of the Breeders’ Cup feature, the 8-1 odds seems realistic. This year’s race will be a much tougher task for the Japanese star, especially with only the one prep race following an April layoff.

Brian: Although I have been a fan of Antiquarian for quite awhile, I am not ready to buy into him as a true top contender in a field like this. When winning last time, he was the only horse in the race to run trouble free. I do believe he is a nice horse, but I am in no way expecting a similar result to the one he just enjoyed. The Jockey Club Gold Cup was his day in the sun. It will not be repeated in the Breeders’ Cup.

Matt: Antiquarian got a victory in the Jockey Club when the two favorites lost all chance to win because of the much-discussed incident at the start. Before that, this Todd Pletcher trainee had his only stakes win in the 2024 Peter Pan (G3). He is 18-1 in our early Classic morning line and is likely to be much higher than that if he goes to Del Mar.

Brian: Highland Falls also ran into early trouble in his attempt for a repeat victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. From there, he did nothing special to cross the wire fourth and get placed third. Although I do see him as eligible to move forward off the effort, I find it hard to like him as much as several here above him. His odds should be juicy, though, and he will be one I consider playing underneath in the exotics.

Matt: Highland Falls won the 2024 Jockey Club against an undistinguished field. Since then, he was ninth in last year’s Classic and this year has an allowance victory and a second in the Whitney to go with his disqualification aided third in this year’s JCGC. He is a legitimate long shot.