HorseCenter: 2026 Kentucky Derby, Oaks trails begin

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman turn their focus to a new batch of 2-year-olds with high hopes of becoming the future stars of American racing. This is the time of year when exciting young juveniles announce themselves with flashy performances, and we’ve already seen numerous big efforts at Del Mar, Ellis Park and Saratoga.

As the official beginning to the Kentucky Derby 2026 trail, Saturday’s Grade 3, $300,000 Iroquois at Churchill Downs offers the first qualifying points available for the $5 million run for the roses on May 2. Comport, a son of Collected and sharp winner of the Ellis Park Juvenile last month, leads a field of 10 juvenile colts in the one-mile affair.

On the female side, the Kentucky Oaks (G1) trail begins with the Pocahontas (G3), which also offers a total of 21 qualifying points to the first five finishers Saturday at Churchill. In a field of seven, stakes winner Dazzling Dame could be the top betting choice. A daughter of Girvin, she won her debut at Laurel Park before stretching out to win Monmouth’s Sorority Stakes and remain unbeaten in two starts.

Brian: Although recent performances by the likes of Ted Noffey, Brant, It’s Our Time, Desert Gate, Blackout Time and Boyd have ignited Kentucky Derby dreams, I believe it is still much too early to be looking that far ahead. We don’t know if these precocious youngsters will be in training eight months from now, let alone ready to run big at 1 1/4 miles. Awarding points this far out is more gimmicky than practical, in my opinion.

Having said that, I am not immune to getting a little bit excited when I see the acceleration of a handsome colt like Ted Noffey at the head of the Saratoga stretch in the Hopeful Stakes (G1). And it’s not too early to start thinking about the best of these juveniles for the Breeders’ Cup, which is six months before the Kentucky Derby.

Matt: At this point of the year it is much more realistic to look at these 2-year-olds as prospects for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar on Oct. 31. Churchill Downs just released the list of points races for the Kentucky Oaks and Derby, and there are plenty of them. In 2025 for the juveniles alone, there are 11 points races on the Derby trail and 10 on the road to the Oaks, starting this weekend.

Brian: Matt, let’s go with the ladies first and take a look at the one-mile Pocahontas, which will be run as race 6 on Saturday at Churchill Downs. The Brittney Russell-trained Dazzling Dame is the most accomplished filly in the field as the only stakes winner. After a nice debut win in Maryland, she shipped to Monmouth Park, where she showed good early speed when stretched out to two turns for the Sorority Stakes.

She looks pretty well developed for her age and was able to relax a bit down the backstretch on the lead. She responded when asked and had plenty left down the lane to score by two lengths. I imagine this field will be a little tougher, but she has every right to improve in her third career start.

Matt: There are three fillies in the Pocahontas field who are still maidens and three who were winners of their debut race. Dazzling Dame is the only one of the seven who ran in a race beyond her maiden victory. Although that gives Brittney Russell’s filly an edge, it must be noted that she broke her maiden in a race for Maryland-breds that had only four runners. Then in the Sorority at the Jersey Shore, she beat six while going the two-turn mile. Brian, I know you remember when the Sorority was run at six furlongs and was won by the legendary Ruffian in 1974. 

Brian: Although Dazzling Dame was on the lead last time, it might be tougher to gain that position as she shifts to a one-turn mile here. The horse just to her outside, Embrace the Moment, showed good early speed in her debut. The Yaupon filly went right to the lead in her Delaware Park debut and stayed there in a pretty sharp effort. I look for the $140,000 2-year-old purchase to be involved right away once again.

Matt: The experience that these 2-year-olds gain in their early starts is so valuable and can lead to significant improvement in their next race. Embrace the Moment was well regarded in her first start as the 2-5 favorite in a six-horse field. Her young sire Yaupon is off to a great start. She lived up to her billing when she went right to the lead, got floated out a bit wide and prevailed by almost two lengths just 16 days ago.

Brian: The other five fillies in the field all are in with a shot. We saw Taken by the Wind win at Saratoga, Matt, and she looked like a filly with a future for trainer Kenny McPeek. The Rock Your World filly was a little green but was much the best down the stretch to win easily at 13-1. She picks up Irad Ortiz Jr. in this one.

McPeek also has Our Two Girls in the field. The daughter of Caravaggio won in her debut race nicely last month at Ellis Park, and interestingly, the top three from that one all are in the Pocahontas field. That makes me think it was a solid group of maidens. Both Miss Complicated, who came from well back to finish second, and third-place finisher Joke Maker are eligible to improve on Saturday. 

Matt: McPeek has had an excellent summer with his 2-year-olds winning at Saratoga and Ellis Park. He has a reputation as a horseman with a keen eye at the auctions for good horses who sell for bargain prices. And his recent success with Mystik Dan and Thorpedo Anna has expanded his bankroll. In the Pocahontas, Our Two Girls sold for $165,000 as a yearling and Taken by the Wind for $20,000. That enabled the latter to run in a $75,000 maiden optional claimer.

To me Our Two Girls and Embrace the Moment have the best chance to step forward from their maiden victories and contest Dazzling Dame for the win.

Brian: Let's move to the boys and the Iroquois. I attended the Ellis Park Juvenile this year ,and the win by Comport was relatively decisive. After two solid starts at Churchill Downs to begin his racing career, the chestnut son of Collected always looked like a winner and was good down the stretch to earn the win over Spice Runner. 

Having said that, he was a prohibitive favorite and I did not find the two-length victory to be overly impressive. A similar performance on Saturday could get him to the winner’s circle again, but as a heavy favorite, I will be on the lookout for any value opportunities to beat the Eddie Kenneally-trained runner. 

Matt: I have to agree with you, Brian, in the way that I look at the horses coming out of the Ellis Juvenile. Comport and Spice Runner were the top two finishers in a race that only had five runners. The final time for the seven furlongs was good at 1:22.73, but the field of 10 in the Iroquois has far more quality. There are 2-year-olds in the race who I expect to take a step forward after impressive debut victories.

Brian: Spice Runner will try Comport for a third time, and I will say that he was much more competitive last time at Ellis Park. It looks like the son of Gun Runner is improving for trainer Steve Asmussen. He won his debut at Churchill Downs and has good tactical speed. He looks to be a contender with top rider Jose Ortiz getting back on him for this one. 

Nothing Personal shipped into Colonial Downs from his Delaware Park base and won like a good thing in his career debut for trainer Greg Compton. Like Spice Runner, he could be involved in the early pace, which could be testing as these juveniles stretch out to a one-turn mile. The style in which he won his maiden makes him a contender here, but I’m not sure I like the rail draw. 

Matt: Nothing Personal is definitely one of the first-time out winners that has to be considered. The son of Violence sold for $250,000 in May from a stallion who stood for a $30,000 fee. Three months later he continued to be well-regarded and he got plenty of support at the windows to be 4-1. He went seven furlongs in a fast time of 1:21.87 where there were brisk early fractions, and he rallied from mid-pack in a nine-horse field to draw off to win by almost nine lengths. 

Brian: Several others in the field are eligible to pop up and upset the proceedings on Saturday. Among them are two colts coming in after rallying debut wins at Ellis Park. Vost swept by the field going seven furlongs and could be a major player here as he gets speed to run at. I am also looking at Nine Ball, who had to work more in his debut but got the job done for trainer Riley Mott. He also should have attractive odds as he stretches out from his 5 1/2-furlong debut win. 

Matt: Brian, I know how much you appreciate good performances in seven-furlong races, and Vost is yet another 2-year-old to make his first start at that longer distance on the dirt. Vost is a homebred from OXO Equine and Larry Best, who we saw make a lot of big-money purchases over the years. Vost broke slowly, found himself last in a field of 11, raced a bit wide and was visually impressive as he pulled ahead by two lengths in a race that did not have a fast early pace. Young trainer Will Walden is winning stakes races across the country and sends horses out who are ready to run.

Brian: Dazzling Dame is the only stakes winner in the Pocahontas field, but I expect things to get tougher for her as she ships in for this graded-stakes race. I prefer the lightly raced Our Two Girls, who won nicely at first asking for trainer Kenny McPeek. It was a solid debut win, and I think she beat decent fillies in there. I also really like what I saw in her most recent workout over the track at Churchill Downs. Our Two Girls is my top pick in the Pocahontas.

Matt: The field in the Pocahontas is smaller and lacks the quality of the Iroquois. Dazzling Dame is clearly the horse to beat, but she is likely to face pressure from Embrace the Moment to her outside. That should give the late runners the advantage in the Pocahontas. Our Two Girls had an excellent debut for McPeek, and with six weeks between races should be ready to make the kind of step forward that she will need to get the stakes victory. Our Two Girls is also my top pick. 

Brian: With a strong early pace likely, in my opinion, I think there is a good chance for someone to come from off the pace to win this year’s Iroquois. I believe the two most likely candidates are the Ellis Park debut winners Nine Ball and Vost. Although Comport is a deserving favorite off his first three starts, I am going to try to beat him as the favorite. I think a one-turn mile with a good early pace should be perfect for Nine Ball. The son of Code of Honor should move forward off a solid maiden score, and rider Jaime Torres has been riding with confidence of late. Nine Ball is my top pick.

Matt: Nine Ball, Nothing Personal and Vost are similar with impressive debut wins while racing from off the pace, which should make for an interesting race down the stretch as they chase the pair from the Ellis Juvenile. Vost should improve from his slow start with racing experience gained. Will Walden has impressed me as a young and talented trainer. Vost is my Iroquois top pick.