HorseCenter: 10 big questions at Breeders’ Cup 2025

Even with the unfortunate scratch of the morning-line favorite Sovereignty, the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic still features eight Grade 1 winners and will be the headliner among 14 big races of the world championships at Del Mar. 

Barring any more late scratches, the fields are set and the two championship days promise to be full of big performances, storylines and surprises. With that in mind, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman offer answers to 10 big questions at this year’s Breeders’ Cup.

Scratched out of the Classic, will Sovereignty still be horse of the year?

Brian: I really think so. The Breeders’ Cup Classic is the most important race of the year in terms of the title, but I believe the seasonal accomplishments of Sovereignty speak for themselves. He ran in three of the most prestigious races of the year in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and Grade 1 Travers Stakes and won them all with ease.

In his other three starts, he won twice and finished second once in three other graded stakes. If one of the favorites win the Classic, he would have a claim, but I will still prefer the overall year of Sovereignty.

Matt: Sovereignty certainly will be the champion of the 3-year-old division even if Journalism or Baeza win the Classic. Neither of them were able to defeat Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont the Jim Dandy (G2) or the Travers. He defeated Baeza three times and Journalism twice. 

If the Pacific Classic (G1) winner Fierceness or the Whitney (G1) winner Sierra Leone win the Classic, they would have two Grade 1 wins in 2025. Like Brian said, Sovereignty won three of the four most important races for 3-year-olds this year, and that is the prestige division of Thoroughbred racing. That gives him the edge to be horse of the year.

With Sovereignty out, who will win the Breeders’ Cup Classic?

Matt: I had to revise my Classic analysis because I did have Sovereignty the winner. The race becomes even harder to handicap because I thought Sovereignty was a clear-cut choice. Seven horses in the nine-horse field now have a legitimate chance to win. 

Chad Brown has been preparing Sierra Leone since March to defend his Classic victory. He will have to buck history as Tiznow is the only horse to win the big race two years in a row. Sierra Leone is listed as the co-second choice at 7-2 on the revised morning line, but he is now the horse to beat.

Brian: I now see it as a very wide-open race with any of the eight Grade 1 winners eligible to get the job done. The top two from last year deserve to be the two favorites, but I think Forever Young and Baeza have a big shot to step up. Because of the odds difference, I will take a chance on the improving 3-year-old Baeza as my top pick.

Is Ted Noffey too good for his Breeders' Cup Juvenile competition?

Brian: He could be. His wins at Saratoga were very impressive, and the son of Into Mischief looks like a powerful colt who might be able to keep the big wins coming not only on Friday, but into next season as well. 

Having said that, I won’t be afraid to take a shot against him at very low odds in the Juvenile. The two-time Grade 1 winner will be venturing out west for the first time here, and there are other interesting colts in the race with much better odds who could step up. The bottom line is they are all very lightly raced and very little would surprise me in this one.

Matt: The Juvenile field is down to seven with the scratch of long shot Civil Liberty. That is now the smallest Juvenile field in the history of the Breeders’ Cup. I guess the race is suffering from the trend that many of the best 2-year-olds do not debut until late in the year or even early in their 3-year-old season. 

As good as Ted Noffey looked in all three starts, he still has to face Brant and Intrepido. Brant was a $3 million purchase for Baffert who has to go two turns for the first time after two easy wins. Intrepido did the unthinkable when he beat four Baffert 2-year-olds in the American Pharoah (G1). That being said, Ted Noffey will be a confident top pick for me. 

Will Rebel’s Romance become the first male horse to win at the Breeders’ Cup three times?

Matt: I am a huge fan of Rebel's Romance. We just do not have horses like this 7-year-old gelding who travels around the world and always runs a big race. With 20 victories in his career, the Charlie Appleby-trained superstar is ranked ninth in career earnings in North America with $14.4 million. He comes to Del Mar, where he was the winner last year, after a victory in the Turf Classic (G1) at Aqueduct and a Group 1 in Germany. I saw him at that race in New York in September, and there was never a doubt that he would win. The son of Dubawi exudes power, strength and confidence. 

Rebel’s Romance is my top pick to win the Turf again this year in a field of 14 that contains only five American runners.

Brian: I think the odds are stacked against the great gelding this year. The 3-year-old filly Minnie Hauk is the one to beat, in my opinion, and led by the classy Goliath, 12 others in the field have a chance to win. It would be quite an accomplishment for Rebel’s Romance to win his third, but I am going to go against him in this one.

Of the seven Breeders’ Cup races on the turf, how many will the Americans win?

Brian: Although American turf racing seems to be far below the international runners right now, they still will have strong representation in most of the Breeders’ Cup races. I am going to say the international runners prove too tough in the Turf, led by Minnie Hauk, Rebel’s Romance and Goliath, but after that, I believe we have a fighting chance in the other six grass races. She Feels Pretty, Village Voice, Shisospicy and Ag Bullet have big shots on Saturday, and I would be surprised if we don’t win one on Friday. I’ll go with a final answer of going 3-for-7 in the grass races for the U.S. this year. 

Matt: Generally speaking, I give the Americans an advantage in the sprints on the grass, especially going five furlongs where they have an edge breaking from the gate and dealing with the tight turns. She Feel Pretty is the most likely winner on the grass for the U.S. Europeans always are preferred in the Turf and the Mile. The post-position draw for the Friday races hurt the Euros. Both of their heavy favorites in the Juvenile Turf and the Juvenile Fillies Turf drew the far outside spot in the starting gate.

Everything would have to go perfectly for Americans to win both turf sprints and both one-mile juveniles. Realistically, one turf sprint, one juvenile and She Feels Pretty also gives me three out of seven for the U.S.

Will Seismic Beauty go gate-to-wire at low odds in the Breeders' Cup Distaff?

Matt: The Distaff drew a field of 13, which is a bit larger than usual, when Thorpedo Anna retired and Cavalieri was unable to run. Seismic Beauty is the 9-5 morning line favorite, and that seems reasonable. She is from the Bob Baffert barn and won her last three starts, including the Santa Margarita (G2) at Santa Anita in March, and she was last seen in August in the Clement Hirsch (G1) at Del Mar.

No doubt she is fast, and the pace projector shows her getting loose on the lead. But other horses prefer to run on the lead also. In her last four races she ran in small fields of five or six. Now she will face the toughest race of her career after a three-month layoff. Clicquot is my top pick to win the Distaff.

Brian: In looking at her past performances and replays of her races, I am not yet convinced that Seismic Beauty wants to go nine- furlongs against top horses. If the pace is easy for her, then she can win as a heavy favorite. I don’t believe that will happen, though. In this big field, I expect real pace pressure for her. That all leads me to believe that she will be a very vulnerable favorite in the Distaff. I see this as a good race to take a shot against the favorite, and the late running long shot Regaled is one who will be on all of my tickets.  

Will there be a new two-time winner at this year’s Breeders’ Cup?

Brian: A number of horses have a real shot to move into the Breeders’ Cup history books Saturday. Fierceness and Sierra Leone are clear threats in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and the trio of Full Serrano, White Abarrio and Citizen Bull are in with a real shot in the Dirt Mile. Finally, throwing Straight No Chaser out in the Sprint is not something that I am willing to do.

With all those reasonable chances, I am going to predict that we do see a new two-time winner at this year’s Breeders’ Cup, and I think it is most likely to happen in the Dirt Mile.

Matt: The Dirt Mile drew an excellent field this year. The morning-line favorite Nysos will make it very difficult for Full Serrano, White Abarrio or Citizen Bull to get a second Breeders’ Cup victory. Straight No Chaser is up against it from the No. 12 post position and is not one of my choices in the Sprint this year.

The chance of either Sierra Leone or Fierceness winning the Classic significantly improved with the scratch of Sovereignty. Those two became my top two choices to win the race and thus are the most likely horses to join the elite club of two-time Breeders’ Cup winners. 

Which jockey is poised to have the biggest Breeders’ Cup this weekend?

Matt: If you have an account with a sports book, you will probably be able to find a prop bet for the jockey who wins the most races at the Breeders’ Cup. 

Last year’s Eclipse Award winner Flavien Prat is the only rider with mounts in all 14 championship races, including two morning-line favorites. Hall of famer John Velazquez has 10 rides with three undefeated horses on Friday, the defending Sprint winner Straight No Chaser, Fierceness in the Classic and She Feels Pretty in the finale. Irad Ortiz Jr. secured 13 mounts, but only one of them is a favorite. Although Christophe Soumillon has only six mounts, three of them are projected to be favorites.  

Brian:  I have to go with Johnny V as the top rider at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. The ageless Velazquez is loaded for bear with Ted Noffey, Schwarzenegger, Tommy Jo and Ultimate Love in the 2-year-old races on Friday. Then on Saturday he will get a leg up on Fierceness, She Feels Pretty, Dorth Vader, Straight No Chaser, Ag Bullet, Formidable Man and Praying. That is a very impressive list for the Hall of Famer. I think he will get three wins overall.

If Book’em Danno was in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, where would he finish?

Brian: This was a tricky decision for the Book'em Danno team, but the bottom line is trainer Derek Ryan felt that the terrific sprinter had done so much at Saratoga this year that he did not need to make the trip out to Del Mar. And as a gelding, there is no reason to push him too hard when they can have him running at a high level for years to come. 

Still, I would have loved to see the New Jersey-bred at Del Mar this year because I believe he is the best sprinter in the nation. If he was there, he would have been my clear choice in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

Matt: Book’em Danno was one of the horses I was most looking forward to seeing at Del Mar. We do not get to see a Jersey-bred as a favorite in the Breeders’ Cup very often. But I understand the decision since he should have a long career ahead of him. 

With those three graded stakes victories this summer, Book’em Danno still has a chance to be named sprint champion. Winning at the Breeders’ Cup would have turned a very good campaign into a fantastic year with a guaranteed Eclipse Award.

Which horse will light up the toteboard on Friday or Saturday?

Matt: Imaginationthelady shows up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, race 8 on the Friday card, with 10-1 morning-line odds and that price could be higher by post time. This daughter of Not This Time is undefeated in two starts in Kentucky during the autumn months. In the Jessamine (G2) at the beginning of the month, she beat Time to Dream, who is listed at half the price of this long-shot prospect. Also, the 6-5 morning-line favorite Precise drew post position No. 13 on the far outside for this grass mile. 

Brian: There are a slew of live long shots in these 14 races, and I can’t wait to take my shot with all of them. If I had to pick just one, I would point to Regaled in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. She has been getting better and better for trainer Whit Beckman all year and often has had little early pace to help her out. She is a big number on the morning line, and I really expect her to come running. Underneath in the exotics would not be bad, but I think she can win the whole thing.