Horak: Robert Bruce can test Arlington Million favorite
The 2019 Grade 1 Arlington Million definitely goes through Bricks and Mortar. Chad Brown’s win machine has not lost a race since October 2017, and he is the deserving favorite in this event. His biggest danger might come from his stablemate Robert Bruce. Before deciding how to bet the Arlington Million, let’s go through the entire field.
Arlington Race 11 - Grade 1 Arlington Million - 10 furlongs turf - Post Time 7:12 p.m. ET
Favorite:
#3 Bricks and Mortar (8-5) is 9-for-11 overall and clearly the one to beat. He has won his last five starts and is 4-for-4 in the graded ranks this year. He is 2-for-2 at this distance and Irad Ortiz Jr. should have options with the versatile sort.
Value Win Contender:
#1 Robert Bruce (7-2) won this race last summer and has only run four times since. He bounced back with an improved runner-up finish in the Manhattan (G1) June 8, and he was not far behind his stablemate and today’s favorite that day. He might be rounding back into top form.
Live Longshots:
#5 Hunting Horn (12-1) might be in this race as a pacemaker for his stablemate Magic Wand. He served that same purpose in the Man o’ War (G1). He built up an 8-length lead in that spot and ended up 4th by a length. He reconnects with Ryan Moore and might stick around for a long time.
#9 Intellogent (12-1) adds lasix and blinkers, and the French invader has dropped five straight. He did win the Prix Jean Prat (G1) and Prix de Guiche (G3) last year, and his respectable 4th in the Prix d’Ispahan (G1) in his last start on May 26 was a step in the right direction.
Remaining Entrants:
#2 Magic Wand (5-1) is cross-entered in the Beverly D (G1). She hit the board in all five starts at this distance. She is only 2-for-16 and has not won in quite some time, but finished in the money in multiple big races including a runner-up finish in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), and a show finish in the Man o’ War (G1).
#4 Catcho En Die (30-1) was placed 3rd through disqualification in this event last year. He is usually overmatched vs. this kind but should be forwardly placed, and a minor award is not impossible.
#6 The Grey Day (12-1) exits an okay runner-up finish in the Arlington Handicap (G3). He is going to have to run faster to threaten these.
#7 Pivoine (15-1) invades from Great Britain and is probably not quite good enough to compete with these. He was no threat in a pair of group three events earlier this year, and he upset 20 rivals in a Class 2 Handicap July 13.
#8 Captivating Moon (20-1) was up for 3rd in the Arlington Handicap (G3). He has no speed and frequently rallies for minor awards.
#10 Bandua (6-1) smartly won the Arlington Handicap as the favorite July 13. He should be forwardly placed in a race that came up light on pace, and he will have to run the race of his life to compete with these.
Wagers:
#1 to win
Exacta 1-3
Trifecta 1-3/1-3-5-9/1-2-3-5-8-9
Superfecta 1-3/1-3/ALL/2-5-8-9