Horak: Kadar, Mohawk longshots to watch in Saratoga Derby
The $1 million Saratoga Derby looks eerily similar to last month’s Belmont Derby (G1), and it is every bit as wide open as that event.
Longshots ruled the Belmont Derby, and it might be deja vu all all over again.
Before deciding how to bet Sunday’s Saratoga Derby, let’s go through the entire field.
Saratoga Race 9 - Saratoga Derby - 9.5 furlongs turf - Post Time 5:48 p.m. EDT
Favorites:
#1 Henley’s Joy (4-1) exits a 20-1 upset in the Belmont Derby (G1), and he sat a nice inside tracking trip that day. He might work out the same journey from the inside post, but he could also get caught behind horses this time. I don’t want to take a short price on this one.
#4 Rockemperor (7-2) was up for 3rd from post 14 in the Belmont Derby. He drew a much better post for Chad Brown, and he could easily improve in his second US start.
Value Win Contenders:
#2 Social Paranoia (6-1) almost won the Belmont Derby (G1) as my 16-1 top choice last time. I love his tactical speed, and he just goes out there and fires trifecta shots every time. He is still eligible for an entry level allowance race.
#8 Digital Age (9-2) won his first three starts for Chad Brown, but his late kick was not quite good enough from post 13 in the Belmont Derby. He drew better this time, but has to be careful not to leave himself with too much work in the stretch.
Live Longshots:
#6 Kadar (30-1) had a troubled start and rallied to miss by a neck in his local turf bow July 18. He adds blinkers and attracts Jose Ortiz, and he sold for $836k in 2018.
#10 Mohawk (10-1) exits a smart victory in the Meld Stakes (G3) in Ireland for Aidan O’Brien. His task is hardly impossible, and he defeated his stablemate Cape of Good Hope in the Royal Lodge (G2) last year.
Remaining Entrants:
#3 A Thread of Blue (12-1) was sharp over the winter at Gulfstream Park. He is probably the one to catch but probably does not want to go this far.
#5 Eons (15-1) has won four straight and should sit a decent stalking trip. He is razor sharp but light on numbers.
#7 Cape of Good Hope (15-1) made a mild move before flattening out in the Belmont Derby. He is going to have to run much better to be competitive today for Aidan O’Brien.
#9 Seismic Wave (6-1) is another exiting the Belmont Derby, and the late runner was the beaten favorite that day. He needs racing luck and just might be in trouble again.
#11 Flying Scotsman (15-1) probably needed his American Derby (G3) return. He should be fitter and figures to attend the pace.
Wagers:
#2 to win
Exacta 2/4-6-10
Exacta 4-6-10/2
Trifecta 4/ALL/2
Trifecta 2-4/1-2-4-8/1-2-4-6-8-10