Horak: How to bet Santa Anita's loaded Santa Monica Stakes
Marley’s Freedom is the deserving favorite for the Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Monica Stakes for trainer Bob Baffert, but she'll have to deal with a number of talented rivals when an expected seven go postward at 7:09 p.m. ET Saturday at Santa Anita Park.
Stablemate Dream Tree lost for the first time in the La Brea (G1) and tries to bounce back, while defending race winner Selcourt is also looking to rebound from a pair of disappointing efforts. Paradise Woods, meanwhile, won a pair of Grade 1 races in 2017 and is looking to get her picture taken for the first time since.
Before choosing how to bet Saturday’s ninth race at Santa Anita, let's analyze the field:
The Favorite
#3 Marley’s Freedom (2-1) is the most reliable of the top choices. Drayden Van Dyke was aboard for three of her wins last year, including back-to-back graded romps. The versatile mare figures to stalk the pace.
Value Win Contenders
#1 Paradise Woods (7-2) is training well for her new conditioner, John Shirreffs. Joel Rosario takes the call. She does her best work at Santa Anita and can compete here if she rediscovers her occasionally brilliant sophomore form.
#4 Dream Tree (4-1) lost for the first time in the La Brea, and she quit badly in that event. Saturday's rider, Mike Smith, was aboard for her Prioress (G2) romp last summer but is hard to trust her after that clunker on opening day.
Live Longshots
#6 Escape Clause (6-1) loves winning races but might be out-classed today. She owns running style versatility and is 2-for-2 at this distance.
Remaining Entrants
#2 Selcourt (3-1) smartly went all the way in this event last year. Her last two numbers dropped way off, and she is not anywhere near peak form. She can wire these on her best day.
#5 Mopotism (12-1) usually tries hard on dirt, but it is hard to see her getting the win against this kind at this distance.
#7 Amuse (12-1) drew well and cruised in both of her local sprints. She is lightly raced with upside but has not run fast enough yet to beat a field like this.
Wagering Strategies
#1 to win
Exacta Box 1-3
Trifecta 1-3-4/1-3-4/6