Horak: How I'm betting Saturday's Breeders' Cup Turf
The 2019 Breeders' Cup Turf is an intriguing international affair. Bricks and Mortar is the favorite, but can he handle a mile and a half? Anthony Van Dyck is the top overseas hope, and Old Persian looked good at Woodbine last time. Before deciding how to bet Saturday's 11th race at Santa Anita Park, let's meet the field.
Note that in nine previous Breeders' Cup Turf offerings at Santa Anita, there were five overseas winners. Three winners prepped in Turf Classic (G1) at Belmont Park. One winner had final prep at Santa Anita.
The Favorite
#9 Bricks and Mortar (9-5) - Top U.S. hope has won six straight, with four of those Grade 1s. This is his first start beyond a mile and a quarter.
Value Win Contenders
# 5 Anthony Van Dyck (3-1) - Group 1 winner at the distance has lost three straight. Fresh sophomore exits an OK overseas effort Sept. 14 and rested until this.
# 10 Old Persian (4-1) - Dominated a weak crew in Woodbine's Northern Dancer Turf (G1). The nine-time winner has a touch of class.
Live Longshots
#3 United (20-1) - Trainer Richard Mandella’s improving gelding ran well in both Grade 2 turf routes. A minor award is possible.
#7 Alounak (20-1) - Second in a weak renewal of Canadian International (G1). Probably still makes him better than most U.S. runners.
Remaining Entrants
#1 Zula Alpha (20-1) - Has racked up multiple graded wins for Mike Maker. Looks like most of other U.S. runners.
#2 Acclimate (20-1) - Pretty good front runner against lesser graded foes. Won’t last with this salty group.
#4 - Mount Everest (15-1) - An improving sophomore Euro invader, but likely not nearly good enough.
#6 - Channel Cat (15-1) - Early/pressing type stole Bowling Green (G2) on July 27. He won't get away with it here.
#8 - Bandua (20-1) - Has lost nine of last 10 and is 0-for 2 at this distance. Will probably attend the pace.
#11 - Arklow (12-1) - Got his Grade 1 win in the Turf Classic. Most U.S. runners are evenly matched.
#12 - Channel Maker (10-1) - Eleventh in this race last year. Another Grade 1 winner who can't much be differentiated from his U.S. peers.
Final Comments
Anthony Van Dyck is dangerous from off the pace in this spot for Aidan O’Brien, who has won this event six times. He is a Group 1 winner at a mile and a half and reconnects with winning rider Ryan Moore. Bricks and Mortar probably wins this if he handles the distance, but that is no guarantee and he won’t offer much value. Old Persian is capable of winning this. The classy 4-year-old is 8-for-15 on turf. Alounak might be a cut below the top overseas runners, but he can hit the board. United is getting better for Richard Mandella. Flavien Prat rides and he might be able to sneak in underneath.
Suggested Wagers
#5 to win
exacta 5/9-10
exacta 9-10/5
trifecta key 5/3-7-9-10
superfecta 5-9/5-9-10/3-5-7-9-10/3-5-7-9-10