Horak: How I'm betting Louisiana Derby day's all-stakes Pick 4
On Louisiana Derby Day at Fair Grounds, the card offers an all-stakes Pick 4, with the 50-cent minimum wager kicking off at 4:10 p.m. ET and running through the featured Louisiana Derby (G2) at 5:49 p.m. ET.
I'll be playing the sequence with four tickets totaling $49. See them below, after a race-by-race rundown.
New Orleans Classic (G2)
There are no confirmed front runners in this 1 1/8-mile dirt affair, and I am expecting forwardly placed runners to dominate. #3 Fearless is 2-for-2 for Todd Pletcher. He has upside and might attempt a wire job. #6 Silver Dust, #8 By My Standards, and #9 Gun It all have tactical speed.
#6 Instilled Regard always runs his race on turf. He is classy enough to win this, and he figures to stalk the pace and get the jump on the late runners. #12 Synchrony is 4-for-6 at Fair Grounds, and he will try to get involved late. I will also use #1 Dot Matrix, #4 Rockemperor, #7 Henley’s Joy, and #8 Channel Maker.
Fair Grounds Oaks (G2)
#6 Finite should have every advantage from the outside post. She has captured her last five starts and can attend below-par fractions. She should win this at minuscule odds. #4 Bonny South added blinkers and got plenty of pace help in her optional claiming win at Oaklawn Feb. 15, and runner-up Shedaresthedevil returned to capture the Honeybee (G3). The race shape in this one, however, works against her. #3 Tempers Rising was right with Finite in the Silverbulletday but did not run nearly as well in the Rachel Alexandra (G2). She can close into slow fractions.
Louisiana Derby (G2)
#9 Portos should be sitting on a top effort for Todd Pletcher. He returned from a seven-week break to graduate by the length of the stretch at the end of last year. His show finish in the Withers (G3) was solid, and he can uncork a new top with another seven weeks between starts. #3 Wells Bayou looks like the one to catch, and #10 Enforceable is the best of the late runners. I will also include #4 Chestertown and #13 Silver State.
My Tickets
$15: 3/1-4-6-7-8-12/6/3-4-9-10-13
$12: 3-6-8-9/1-4-6-7-8-12/6/9
$12: 3-8/6-12/3-4-6/3-9
$10: 3-6-8-9/6/6/3-4-9-10-13