Hopeful fair odds: Who’s a playable threat to Ferocious?

Some of the biggest names from the maiden ranks over the summer at Saratoga will meet in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes on closing day Monday. For me the choices are clear.

Ferocious deserves the headlines after his career debut Aug. 3 at Saratoga, drawing off to defeat eight rivals by 7 3/4 lengths in the slop. The numbers match the visual impression. His triple-digit Brisnet late-pace rating is extremely impressive given he pressed a solid pace early.

Still there is some pause given that was in the slop, and he was not the fastest early of his competitors. That mantle belongs to the aptly named Tough Catch, a gate-to-wire winner July 13. We’ll see if he can carry his speed seven furlongs, but at 8-1 vs. Ferocious’s 8-5 morning-line billing, I’m going to yield to speed in this case.

Chancer McPatrick I will let beat me. The sustained rally on debut was impressive, but the Brisnet late-pace rating was slower than Ferocious with a better setup. Yes, you get a better price with Chancer McPatrick, but I’d rather take the bigger price on the front end than a not-so-big price on the one chasing.

I will bet Tough Catch to win at my fair odds or better and reverse the exacta with Ferocious.