Hong Kong overnight: Picks, analysis, PPs for Happy Valley

Hong Kong racing is at Happy Valley this weekend, overnight Sunday at 12:45 a.m. EDT, Saturday at 9:45 p.m. PDT. Free PPs are available at Horse Racing Nation. For more free handicapping information, visit the Hong Kong Jockey Club website.

Race 1: 4 Run Run Timing, 2 Speedy Smartie, 6 Super Charizzard, 1 Ragnarr

Race 2: 1 With A Smile, 2 All’s Well, 5 Good Fortune, 3 Denfield

Race 3: 2 The Azure, 12 Sterling Wongchoy, 4 Fantastic Fun, 1 Thesis

Race 4: 2 Lucky Twenty, 1 Healthy Healthy, 11 Day Day Victory, 3 Lean Master

Race 5: 4 Argento Ocean, 8 Exceed The Wish, 5 Brownneedsfurther, 7 Autumn Vibes

Race 6: 2 Forever Glorious, 11 Celestial Patch, 10 Hakka Radiance, 6 Ocean Impact

Race 7: 2 Eternal Fortune, 1 Harmony N Blessed, 10 Looking Bright, 6 Candlelight Dinner

Race 8: 9 Sports Legend, 5 Refusetobeenglish, 7 Romantic Son, 11 Aurora Patch

Race 9: 5 Masterofmyuniverse, 3 Colourful King, 8 Aurora Lady, 7 Superb Capitalist

Race 10: 3 Keen Molly, 6 King Lotus, 4 Another Zonda, 10 Mighty Steed

Race 1, Dongguan Handicap

No. 4 Run Run Timing made a strong first impression for the Ricky Yiu stable, finishing a close second on his class 5 debut and showing he’s ready to win again. He draws wider in post 9 this time, but that effort confirmed he’s heading the right way. No. 2 Speedy Smartie rebounded from a luckless first-up second with a determined win and has since trialled impressively. No. 6 Super Charizzard has yet to fire this campaign but showed a clear turnaround in a recent trial and looks far better suited back to this track and trip. Barrier 3 gives him every chance to settle closer and be competitive. No. 1 Ragnarr was a comfortable winner two back before finding seven furlongs a touch too far last start when still boxing on for fourth. Purton stays aboard, but the wide draw will require some luck early.

Race 2, Foshan Handicap

No. 1 With A Smile resumes after a vet issue ended his last campaign, and his form lines read strongly. He beat Max Que two runs back and was third to Little Paradise before that, both holding up well in stronger races since. His trials have been excellent, and he looks the one to beat fresh. No. 2 All’s Well ended last season with a deserved maiden win and resumed with a close third to the in-form Jubilant Winner. From post 2 he maps for an ideal run and a fitness edge may prove key in the finish. No. 5 Good Fortune has been thereabouts in all three runs this term, and the switch to Luke Ferraris could prove decisive if he can get him out of the gates a touch sharper. No. 3 was posted wide last start after pressing forward from a tricky draw and faded late. Ridden quieter, he can finish off much better.

Race 3, Huizhou Handicap

No. 2 The Azure was given a quiet ride from a wide gate first-up, held up on the turn before running on well late for eighth. He draws post 1 this time, which gives him a far better map and a genuine chance to break through second-up. No. 12 Sterling Wongchoy can make use of his speed in a race that lacks tempo and should improve further from his first-up fourth, where he faded late after working early. No. 4 Fantastic Fun made full use of post 1 to score nicely over this course and trip last start, though post 11 makes this assignment more difficult. No. 1 Thesis maps for a handy position from gate 4 and looks well placed staying in class 4, with his late-season form last term suggesting he can run a race.

Race 4, Shantou Handicap

No. 2 Lucky Twenty looks set for a big run second-up after covering ground without cover on the pace first-up and understandably fading. Barrier 3 gives him a far better map this time, and the addition of a tongue-tie could spark further improvement. No. 1 Healthy Healthy drops in grade and must be respected given his solid class 4 record. From post 1 he should enjoy a perfect run in transit and looks a major player. No. 11 Day Day Victory draws much better in post 4 after jumping from gate 11 first-up. He tends to get back but should settle closer this time and will be hard to hold out if things fall into place. No. 3 Lean Master draws well and looks ready to build on his encouraging second-up effort. This shapes as a good opportunity for apprentice Britney Wong on her Happy Valley debut.

Race 5, The Hong Kong Country Club Challenge Cup

No. 4 Argento Ocean continues to improve and ran a solid fourth over this course and distance last start after covering ground from post 11. He can take another step forward. No. 8 Exceed The Wish, from the in-form Mark Newnham yard, again draws post 10 after flashing home late into second behind Flying Wrote last start. No. 5 Brownneedsfurther resumes off a series of improving trials, draws well in gate 3, and his second to Vulcanus at his final start last season reads nicely for this. No. 7 Autumn Vibes will need some early luck from post 11, but his two runs so far have both been encouraging, finishing close up each time. A switch to the city circuit could be just what he needs to take the next step forward.

Race 6, Shenzhen Handicap

No. 2 Forever Glorious ticks plenty of boxes in an open race. He maps for a soft run from post 3, and the step up to 1 1/8 miles second-up looks key after fading late for fourth over the extended mile first-up. No. 11 Celestial Patch remains largely unexposed and has shown good improvement in a recent trial. With post 1 and a key rider switch to Andrea Atzeni, he gets his chance to make an impression. No. 10 Hakka Radiance rises to class 4 after back-to-back wins in class 5, and with Purton aboard, his current winning form keeps him in the mix. No. 6 Ocean Impact draws to get a comfortable run and looks ready to lift third-up after two solid, close-up performances to start the campaign.

Race 7, The Kwangtung Handicap Cup

No. 2 Eternal Fortune reunites with Hugh Bowman, who has a win and a fourth from two rides on him. His recent trial win was full of purpose and suggests he is ready to fire fresh. No. 1 Harmony N Blessed endured a tough run last start when trapped wide but drops in class here and should appreciate the easier assignment. Purton takes over from post 2, which gives him every chance to rebound. No. 10 Looking Bright has shown marked improvement in his recent trials ahead of his return. With only three local starts to date, the four-year-old has clear upside and looks one to keep safe this season. No. 6 Candlelight Dinner can settle handy from the inside draw and looks set to build on his encouraging first-up fourth and should strip fitter this time.

Race 8, Zhaoqing Handicap

No. 9 Sports Legend did plenty of work early from post 12 and understandably faded to seventh first-up, his first outing for the David Eustace stable. His subsequent trial was outstanding, and with a smoother run he looks ready to bounce back to winning form. No. 5 Refusetobeenglish has taken a big step forward since his luckless debut, where he was trapped extremely wide and weakened. His recent trial over this course and trip was strong, and Purton’s booking comes as no surprise. No. 7 Romantic Son has had little luck in both runs this campaign, caught wide first-up and held up late second-up when full of running. He’s capable of improving with clear running this time. No. 11 Aurora Patch steps back into class 3 after breaking through at his 11th start last time out. Manfred Man has him going well, and with a light weight he can maintain his good form.

Race 9, Guangzhou Handicap

No. 5 Masterofmyuniverse resumed with a solid effort for seventh behind Tomodachi Kokoroe, finishing off strongly late. He will strip fitter for that run, and post 2 gives him the perfect setup to win second-up. No. 3 Colourful King would be clearly on top if not for his wide draw in post 12. A promising and still untapped four-year-old, he charged home for second first-up over five furlongs, and the step up to six furlongs suits ideally. No. 8 Aurora Lady caught the eye first-up with a fast-finishing fourth over five furlongs after settling last. The rise to six furlongs looks ideal, supported by his third to Beauty Waves in his final run last season and his proven record over this track and trip. No. 7 Superb Capitalist has been racing in excellent form over five furlongs and should have no trouble stretching out to six furlongs, having already won four times at this track and trip.

Race 10, Zhuhai Handicap

No. 3 Keen Molly looks ready to win after producing his best run yet when second at his first try around the city circuit. A sharp trial win between runs, a key gear change, and Purton taking over all point to him breaking through. No. 6 King Lotus steps beyond six furlongs for the first time but remains untapped. From post 1 he maps for a soft run, and with the Newnham stable in top form, he commands respect. No. 4 Another Zonda went too hard in front last start, which left him empty late. With a turn in race shape, he’s capable of giving a better sight. No. 10 Mighty Steed has turned a corner since dropping in the ratings and adding cheek pieces, easily winning in class 4 last time. He rises in grade but carries less weight and can measure up again.

Luke Middlebrook is a contributor at Idol Horse. After blogging about the sport for years, he spent eight years in Singapore as the resident expert at iRace Media, overseeing form and editorial content for racing in Hong Kong and Singapore. Coverage of the entire Hong Kong Thoroughbred season at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a sponsorship by the Hong Kong Jockey Club.