Hong Kong Wednesday morning: Picks, analysis, PPs

Hong Kong racing is at Happy Valley Wednesday morning at at 5:40 a.m. EST. British jockey Hollie Doyle begins a seven-week stint in Hong Kong and talks about it for Racing to Win, which you can watch below. Free PPs are available at Horse Racing Nation. For more free handicapping information, visit the Hong Kong Jockey Club website.

Race 1: 1 Storm Runner, 5 Leather Master, 2 Romantic Fantasy, 4 Wah May Wai Wai

Race 2: 2 Always My Folks, 1 Speedy Smartie, 9 Modest Gentleman, 3 Divine Moonlight

Race 3: 11 Von Baer, 2 Tourbillon Golfer, 9 Roman Crown, 5 Grand Nova

Race 4: 9 Conspiracy Witness, 5 Smart City, 2 Chain Of Gold, 6 Absolute Awakened

Race 5: 2 Lunar Dash, 3 The Revolution, 8 Yee Cheong Spirit, 4 Golden Dream

Race 6: 7 Fortune Star, 5 California Moxie, 4 Bright Mortar, 11 Star Brose

Race 7: 2 Thunder Prince, 1 Charming Babe, 6 Bits Superstar, 4 Golden Darci

Race 8: 5 Bienvenue, 1 Regal Gem, 3 Spicy Gold, 7 Forza Toro

Race 9: 2 Embraces, 10 Uranus Star, 1 Cambridge, 5 Silvery Breeze

Race 1 - Chukyo Handicap

No. 1 Storm Runner gets a golden opportunity to shed his maiden tag. He’s now third-up and steps out to a suitable distance after two solid runs, the latest a strong second to Hakka Radiance which reads as a key form line. From post 1 with Purton staying aboard, he gets every chance. No. 5 Leather Master is a one-time winner from two runs over this course and distance, his latest victory coming over Storm Runner. His most recent sixth was full of merit after being held up late, so he’s worth another look. No. 2 Romantic Fantasy drops in grade, steps up to a winning trip, and gets a positive jockey booking, all of which point to improvement. No. 4 Wah May Wai Wai has placed third in both runs since dropping to Class 5 and maps to enjoy a soft on-pace run, giving him every chance to see out the distance.

Race 2 - Niigata Handicap

No. 2 Always My Folks makes plenty of appeal dropping into Class 5 for the first time and adding blinkers. His first-up sixth, where he led at a genuine tempo before tiring late, was full of merit, and from post 1 he maps to get his chance. No. 1 Speedy Smartie backs up quickly after a narrow defeat on Sunday when nailed late into second. Barrier 9 isn’t ideal, but he has the early speed to roll forward and make his own luck. No. 9 Modest Gentleman gets a significant map upgrade after quiet runs in both outings this prep. From a low draw he should settle closer, giving him every chance to feature. No. 3 Divine Moonlight has transferred to Caspar Fownes and has shown promise in a recent trial. Now dropping to the cellar grade for the first time, he’s well placed to show improvement fresh. 

Race 3 - Kyoto Handicap

No. 11 Von Baer finally draws a gate after jumping from post 12 in his past two starts, both times hitting the line strongly. From post 1 he can settle closer, and his first-up second to Jubilant Winner from a low draw reads well for his chances to break through here. No. 2 Tourbillon Golfer has comparable formlines, finishing fourth as favorite behind Jubilant Winner first-up before placing third at this course and trip. He’s again drawn wide but a lack of pace in the race should allow him to slot in comfortably. No. 9 Roman Crown makes his Happy Valley debut from an ideal post 2. His two runs this term have been encouraging, and a trial win between starts adds confidence. No. 5 Grand Nova ran well for third last start when ridden with patience and boasts a perfect record of two wins from two fourth-up attempts.

Race 4 - Tokyo Handicap

No. 9 Conspiracy Witness looks ready to break through after a slashing second when taken back from a wide gate before charging home to miss by under a length. He draws much better this time, maps for an ideal run, and should take plenty of beating. No. 5 Smart City can improve second-up after a tough run last start. Despite another awkward draw in post 10, the race lacks early speed, and with Purton aboard, he may roll forward and make his own luck. No. 2 Chain Of Gold has been threatening to win since dropping in grade, and the move from gate 12 to post 4 gives him the perfect setup to be in the finish again. No. 6 Absolute Awakened remains a work in progress but has finished close-up in his first two runs before losing the rider last time. Barrier 1 should allow him to settle handier and get his chance.

Race 5 - The Japan Racing Association Trophy

No. 2 Lunar Dash resumed with a dominant maiden win at his third start and did it in style, putting a strong field away with authority. The form out of that race has already stacked up with multiple subsequent winners, and the improving four-year-old looks well placed to take the step into Class 3. No. 3 The Revolution backs up quickly after a poor all-weather effort but is much better suited returning to turf. He drops in grade, draws perfectly in post 1, and a repeat of his close fourth to King Miles two runs back would see him right in the finish. No. 8 Yee Cheong Spirit was brave last start when trapped wide yet still fought on for second. From post 2 he’s set for a much softer run. No. 4 Golden Dream, a newcomer for David Hayes, has trialled well enough to warrant respect.

Race 6 - Tokyo Handicap, div 2

No. 7 Fortune Star resumed with a strong second, picking up right where he left off last season. He had every favor from post 3 then, and while the shift to gate 10 makes the run trickier, he’s clearly ready to win. No. 5 California Moxie returns to his preferred Happy Valley circuit, where his form is strongest. His two runs at Sha Tin have been sound, however, and he should be fitter and more effective second-up. No. 4 Bright Mortar can improve after a plain debut. He steps up in trip, adds blinkers which he trialled well in, and draws ideally in post 1 for a much better run. No. 11 Star Brose can be inconsistent but the cheek pieces in place of blinkers could help him find his rhythm again. With post 2 and a softer map, he’s a chance at odds. 

Race 7 - Kyoto Handicap, div 2

No. 2 Thunder Prince deserves another chance after a luckless second on his first run for the Jamie Richards stable, where he was held up late. From post 2, Hugh Bowman should have him well positioned to go one better. No. 1 Charming Babe draws well again and can’t be knocked. His last-start third carried merit after minor traffic issues, and the switch to Luke Ferraris looks a positive move. No. 6 Bits Superstar can improve second-up and from post 3 should begin quickly under Britney Wong to take up a handy spot, the same pattern that saw him win four starts back. No. 4 Golden Darci draws better this time after being ridden quietly from a wide gate when resuming, catching the eye late. He should settle closer in the run and looks an improver second-up. 

Race 8 - Nakayama Handicap

No. 5 Bienvenue draws the same post (6) as last start when he was narrowly beaten in his first Class 3 attempt. That came in a fast-run race where he stuck on strongly for second, and he is well placed to go one better. No. 1 Regal Gem faces a tougher task under top weight after recording his second Hong Kong win from seven starts, but he’s progressive and looks set to map with strong claims from post 4. No. 3 Spicy Gold endured a tough run last start when taken wide by Regal Gem yet wasn’t beaten far in sixth. He draws better this time and should get a much smoother trip, which brings him right into contention. No. 7 Forza Toro has only had one local start and looks open to plenty of improvement. His trials have been encouraging, and post 1 can see him run a race.

Race 9 - Hanshin Handicap

No. 2 Embraces draws to get a much better run than last start, coming into post 1 from gate 8. He’ll still get back as usual but should be able to save plenty of ground this time and be hard to hold out late. No. 10 Uranus Star might still be building fitness but maps perfectly to race on speed from post 2, and with Purton sticking, he commands respect. No. 1 Cambridge has had little go right in two runs this prep but gets a positive jockey change with Luke Ferraris, who may look to roll forward early from gate 11 and take luck out of the equation. No. 5 Silvery Breeze brings solid Sha Tin form to his Happy Valley debut after a close second to Max Que last start. With only eight local runs under his belt, he’s still on the up and capable of featuring again.

Luke Middlebrook is a contributor at Idol Horse. After blogging about the sport for years, he spent eight years in Singapore as the resident expert at iRace Media, overseeing form and editorial content for racing in Hong Kong and Singapore. Coverage of the entire Hong Kong Thoroughbred season at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a sponsorship by the Hong Kong Jockey Club.