Hong Kong Wednesday morning: Picks, analysis, PPs

Hong Kong is at Sha Tin for a midweek card as locals celebrate a national holiday. Post time is at 1 a.m. EDT. Free PPs are available at Horse Racing Nation. For more free handicapping information, visit the Hong Kong Jockey Club website.

Race 1: 4 Windicator Family, 9 Young Horizon, 2 Cashiscash, 11 Tsuen Wan Glory

Race 2: 3 Aurora Patch, 1 Master Phoenix, 10 Autumn Vibes, 4 Sea Emerald

Race 3: 13 Double Show, 2 Lucky Blessing, 1 Riding High, 6 Ragnarr

Race 4: 14 Sunny Q, 2 Do Your Part, 8 Groovy Feeling, 1 Dancing Classics

Race 5: 13 Double Win, 1 Oriental Smoke, 4 Beauty Viva, 6 Forever Folks

Race 6: 3 Invincible Ibis, 5 Victory Champion, 6 Raging Rapids, 4 China Win

Race 7: 4 Wunderbar, 1 Beauty Waves, 6 Magic Control, 5 Fast Network

Race 8: 5 Steps Ahead, 1 Hong Lok Golf, 8 Mickley, 9 Tourbillon Prince

Race 9: 9 Akashvani, 5 Harold Win, 10 One More, 3 Holmes A Court

Race 10: 4 Top Dragon, 12 Max Que, 9 Sky Vino, 11 Shamus Storm

Race 1, Shenyang Handicap

No. 4 Windicator Family was a hard-luck story first-up at this course and trip, held up from the quarter pole to the 1/8 pole before closing well into third. He now picks up Purton and looks well placed to atone. No. 9 Young Horizon resumes for the Brett Crawford stable and is capable on his current rating. He tends to get back in his races which can make things tricky, but his recent trial was encouraging and suggests he’s ready to fire. No. 2 Cashiscash went close first-up from a soft draw and has been trending the right way since dropping to Class 5. He’ll need a touch more luck from gate 9 but remains a key player. No. 11 Tsuen Wan Glory should press forward under the apprentice claim and look to replicate his front-running win from two starts ago.

Race 2, Chongqing Handicap

No. 3 Aurora Patch has been building towards a win since sliding into Class 4, and his first-up second to Spicy Standard, who has since run well again, reads strongly for this. Drawn to get every chance from post 2. No. 1 Master Phoenix broke through two back before pulling up lame in his latest run. He’s trialed nicely but quietly twice for his return and should be in the mix. No. 10 Autumn Vibes isn’t a straightforward type, but there is something there. Zac Purton gets back on, having done plenty of work on him for his return, and natural improvement looks likely. No. 4 Sea Emerald has done little wrong from just three starts and a win seems near, but as a known bleeder, he carries a query.

Race 3, Nanning Handicap

No. 13 Double Show is another stable switch for Brett Crawford who has caught the eye at the trials. He’ll need luck from post 10, but that could also ensure a decent price. No. 2 Lucky Blessing maps to control the race from post 4 and, after working hard early when fading to fifth first-up, is well placed to improve on that effort now second-up in Class 5. No. 1 Riding High makes his first appearance in this grade and has moved to Douglas Whyte’s yard, trialing well in the lead-up to suggest he can make an impact fresh. No. 6 Ragnarr is a long-standing maiden but has placed in his last three and gets the services of Zac Purton for a second time.

Race 4, Chongqing Handicap, div 2

No. 14 Sunny Q attracted solid market support first-up and should’ve finished much closer than sixth after plenty went wrong in the straight. He gets another opportunity to break through from a better draw and is ready to strike. No. 2 Do Your Part has drawn awkwardly in post 12 but should roll forward to make his own luck. He resumed with another placing, continuing his consistent form from last season. No. 8 Groovy Feeling was a strong winner first-up and followed that with another sound effort just a week later. He’s drawn wide and will drop back. One to watch storming home late. No. 1 Dancing Classics showed promise in his first campaign and, although he’s been awkward in recent trials, his maiden win suggests he has upside.

Race 5, Jinan Handicap

No. 13 Double Win remains winless after 15 starts but has gone close on a number of occasions. He resumes for a new stable off a five-point drop in the ratings and looks well placed to give this a shake first-up. No. 1 Oriental Smoke is always a contender in Class 4, especially over this course and trip. He has fitness on his side being third-up, and the booking of Zac Purton adds further appeal. No. 4 Beauty Viva should appreciate stepping up in trip second-up after a good return over the mile, and both of his prior runs over this course and distance suggest he’s right in the mix. No. 6 Forever Folks was a strong winner fresh for his new stable and must be respected again on that effort.

Race 6, Chengdu Handicap

No. 3 Invincible Ibis is a horse on the up. He now looks ready for the step up to seven furlongs after three efforts over six furlongs, and with Zac Purton now taking over, he gets every chance to break through for a deserved win. No. 5 Victory Champion was unwanted in betting on debut but produced an eye-catching run into second, and his recent trial suggests it was no fluke. The extra furlong should suit. No. 6 Raging Rapids followed his breakthrough win with a good third and remains in the mix for the John Size yard. No. 4 China Win was in need of the run first-up over an unsuitable six furlongs and shapes to improve second-up now rising in distance.

Race 7, The National Day Cup

No. 4 Wunderbar went down narrowly to Beauty Waves over this course and distance to end last season and now meets that rival much better at the weights while also drawing more favorably. He gets his chance to turn the tables. No. 1 Beauty Waves is chasing back-to-back wins in this feature and is better placed here than he was first-up on rain-affected ground. He has easily accounted for several key rivals in recent runs, and while he shoulders top weight, his form offsets the impost. No. 6 Magic Control was runner-up in this race last year behind Beauty Waves and gets a decent weight swing in his favor this time around. No. 5 Fast Network brings a touch of x-factor. He faded late first-up over seven furlongs but now returns to a course and trip he excels over.

Race 8, Beijing Handicap

No. 5 Steps Ahead resumed with a fair fourth over the extended mile at Happy Valley and looks set to improve off that effort. Prior to that, he placed twice narrowly behind Hong Lok Golf, which reads well for him to bounce back to winning ways. No. 1 Hong Lok Golf was a revelation last season winning six from seven, but his two lead-up trials have been lackluster. Still, he must be respected for what he has shown on race day. No. 8 Mickley is hard to catch but his late-closing fifth first-up was encouraging and suggests he’s returned in good order. No. 9 Tourbillon Prince has his fair share of issues but now joins the Michael Chang yard and has looked well in his trials. Capable if things fall into place.

Race 9, Shanghai Handicap

No. 9 Akashvani chased home a handy one in Bulb General first-up and brings the strongest exposed form into this. In a race lacking standout credentials, he gets the opportunity to go one better second-up. No. 5 Harold Win switches to turf after a fair sixth on the all-weather and maps well from an inside draw, which could prove a tactical advantage. No. 10 One More didn’t fire in four runs last term but was never beaten far and his recent trials suggest he’s turned a corner. Barrier 1 and early speed point to a likely catch-me-if-you-can ride. No. 3 Holmes A Court resumes with blinkers on for the first time, having trialed well in them. He needed time last season in two starts but looks to have matured and can show more this time around.

Race 10, Tianjin Handicap

No. 4 Top Dragon was a tough watch from post 14 last start, where he endured traffic issues in the straight. His 11th-place finish was much better than it reads and he can atone. No. 12 Max Que was rewarded for his consistency with a win last time when everything fell into place. He rises in class but drops in weight and maps to get another all-favors run. No. 9 Sky Vino faced a stiff task on his Class 3 debut after drawing the outside post before being restrained to last, but made up ground late. His trial for this return was full of promise. No. 11 Shamus Storm wasn’t beaten far on his first crack at Class 3 despite plenty going wrong. He resumes off two solid trials and is one to include.

Luke Middlebrook is a contributor at Idol Horse. After catching the Hong Kong racing bug, Luke spent several years blogging about the sport before relocating to Singapore in 2016. There, he spent eight years as the resident expert at iRace Media, overseeing all form-related and editorial content for horse racing in Hong Kong and Singapore.

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