Hong Kong Wednesday morning: Picks, analysis, PPs

Hong Kong racing from Happy Valley is Wednesday morning at 6:40 a.m. EDT. Free PPs are available at Horse Racing Nation. For more free handicapping information, visit the Hong Kong Jockey Club website.

Race 1: 4 Endued, 7 New Power, 1 Jumbo Treasure, 10 Shotgun

Race 2: 5 U S S Constitution, 7 Verbier, 4 Windicator Family, 12 Medic Elite

Race 3: 8 Soaring Bronco, 1 Thesis, 2 Written Casa, 11 California Moxie

Race 4: 2 Mighty Commander, 7 Dragon Star, 10 Jumbo Fortune, 4 Stormi

Race 5: 6 Lean Master, 4 Plentiful, 12 Day Day Victory, 7 La Momento

Race 6: 11 Draco, 7 Nebraskan, 6 Loving Vibes, 2 Super Sixty

Race 7: 5 King Miles, 6 Victory Sky, 8 Beauty Glory, 10 Lo Pan Spirit

Race 8: 11 Super Unicorn, 12 Harold Win, 7 Prestige Always, 6 King Of Fighters

Race 9: 9 Dragon Four Seas, 3 Power Koepp, 1 Happy Fat Cat, 10 Golden Rise

Race 1 – Cochrane Handicap

No. 4 Endued was never a chance from his position in running last time, settling last from post 12 in his first outing for the Benno Yung yard. There was market support, and he closed off well. If he can settle closer in the run, he’s going to take serious improvement and should be well and truly on a winnable rating now. No. 7 New Power returns on the quick seven-day turnaround after being sent off favorite last start, where he enjoyed a good run but was held up on the home turn before opting for an inside run—a part of the track that didn’t appear advantageous on the night. He’s been knocking on the door for another win and is one of several strong hopes. No. 1 Jumbo Treasure was impressive two back with a dominant all-the-way win at Sha Tin but was slightly disappointing last time when fading late into fourth after having every chance. He’s worth forgiving on that effort and can bounce back. No. 10 Shotgun is lightly raced and continues to improve. His latest run, stepping away from gate 11 and closing in for fifth behind Telecom Power, showed progression, and he looks set to take another step forward, especially moving into post 1 which improves his map.

Race 2 – D'Aguilar Handicap

No. 5 U S S Constitution is 0 from 14 in terms of wins and placings, but this marks just his second attempt in Class 5. His first run in the grade was full of hard luck—drawn widest at this course and distance, he raced wide from the half-mile point and then copped a nasty check at the 3/16ths point in what was a messy race overall. He does need to lift, but gets another chance to make his mark. However, drawn widest again is far from ideal, though he still shapes as a genuine each-way proposition. No. 7 Verbier was an impressive all-the-way winner two starts ago over this course and trip by over a length. Last time, he stepped up to 1 1/8 miles and again led but was softened up through fast early splits, fading late into fourth. Back in trip is a big plus, and he maps to get a much more comfortable time in front. No. 4 Windicator Family broke his maiden with a strong late run from the back two starts ago, then followed it up with a solid third—he remains in the mix. No. 12 Medic Elite looks to get an ideal run from post 1 and is hard to look past in a race like this, especially after resuming from a five-month break with a sound third-place finish.

Race 3 – Glenealy Handicap

No. 8 Soaring Bronco has remained in solid form since finally shedding his maiden tag four runs ago. He was stretched to nine furlongs last start but still ran well, closing in late for fourth. Dropping back to a more suitable trip, he’s capable of featuring again. No. 1 Thesis broke through over this course and distance five starts ago and has held his form well since. Last time, he was trapped wide without cover yet still only missed by a head—he’s due another win and remains well placed from post 2. No. 2 Written Casa drops back into Class 4 where he commands respect as a one-time winner from three attempts in the grade. He’s been running on well in Class 3 of late, and while untested over this trip in ideal circumstances, a soft run in transit could bring him right into the finish. No. 11 California Moxie can still be sided with after breaking his maiden in Class 5 last start at his 16th attempt. Having mixed tracks and distances throughout his career, he appears to have found his niche over the extended mile at the city circuit. He returns to Class 4 with just 113 pounds on his back and maps ideally up on the pace in a race lacking tempo, should he get across from post 12—conditions that could suit him perfectly in his bid to go back-to-back.

Race 4 – Glenealy Handicap, div 2

No. 2 Mighty Commander was a very tough watch for backers last start when just over a length away in third to Amazing Award. He was caught wide without cover throughout and then couldn’t be fully ridden out late when crowded between the winner and runner-up. He gets his chance to bounce back in a big way here. No. 7 Dragon Star is racing well post-stable change to Me Tsui, coming off three consecutive runner-up finishes. He maps perfectly again and looks ready to finally get his nose in front when it counts. No. 10 Jumbo Fortune won’t be as heavily backed as he was last start when finishing fourth, just over a length away, in a run that was better than it reads given he was tight for room late. A one-time winner from 55 starts, he’s clearly hard to trust, but his consistency since joining the David Eustace yard keeps him in the mix—especially from a sweet draw. No. 4 Stormi has been improving since the class drop. Two runs back he produced his best effort yet with a fast-finishing third to Iconical. Last start he settled further back and found traffic in the straight before closing late into eighth, not beaten far—he’s a definite contender with clearer running.

Race 5 – The Sports Club Diamond Jubilee Challenge Cup

No. 6 Lean Master returns to Happy Valley where he’s best performed, following a series of solid efforts at Sha Tin including a third to Ahren two starts ago and a late-fading fourth to Little Paradise last time out—both strong form references for a race of this nature. He’ll jump, run, lead and prove hard to get past. No. 4 Plentiful has risen sharply in the ratings but continues to hold form well, and his last-start fourth was better than it reads—held up briefly in the home straight, he lost crucial momentum. It’s hard not to see him well in the mix here with in-form Andrea Atzeni sticking solid. No. 12 Day Day Victory is in the form of his life after back-to-back wins in Class 5, and he doesn’t look out of place in this field despite the class rise. A four-year-old finding his niche over this course and distance, he’s well placed on the light weight. No. 7 La Momento has shown improvement in recent trials and, with only two career starts under his belt, he’s open to sharp race day improvement.

Race 6 – Cochrane Handicap, div 2

No. 11 Draco had a horrid run in transit last start, suffering interference early before being taken very wide by an unruly runner. Despite that, he was only beaten just over three lengths into seventh—good merit to the performance—and a kinder trip here from post 4 brings him right back into contention.No. 7 Nebraskan is struggling to land a win but continues to race well, with five placings from 11 starts this season. He remains in the mix again—there’s no doubting he’ll receive a sweet run from post 1 and he could present better value after going under as favorite at short odds in his last two. No. 6 Loving Vibes broke through for a well-deserved maiden win last start on his 12th attempt. He’s been consistent throughout his career and that carries him in good stead to be a chance of going back-to-back, especially with Zac Purton sticking true. No. 2 Super Sixty has won two of his past three starts over five furlongs, but there won’t be any concerns stepping back up to six furlongs — his past efforts over the trip have been solid. The four-year-old has clearly hit his straps and likely hasn’t reached his ceiling yet.

Race 7 – Wyndham Handicap

No. 5 King Miles is worth sticking with with despite back-to-back runner-up finishes. Two starts ago he was less than a length behind Crimson Flash, who has since won again, while last start he jumped awkwardly, settled rearward, and was the best closer against the race shape—storming home late behind Chateauneuf. If he can make early use of post 3, he looks very hard to hold out late. No. 6 Victory Sky was solid last start from post 11 where he was caught wide from the 3/8ths point but still found the line strongly to miss by only a head to Kaholo Angel. No. 8 Beauty Glory shapes as the likely leader and, while winless in nearly a year, his recent form has been encouraging, including placings behind Endeared and Everyone’s Star. He’ll give a good sight and may be hard to peg back. No. 10 Lo Pan Spirit had his first go at this course and distance last start but his poor run with posts continued, drawing gate 10 and stuck wide throughout. Still, he was only two and three-quarter lengths off the winner in seventh and has been running well against adversity—any luck in running puts him right in the mix, but again he draws sticky in gate 12.

Race 8 – On Lan Handicap

No. 11 Super Unicorn has been in and out of form since his dominant five-and-three-quarter length victory earlier this season—a win that saw him whacked with a 12-point ratings hike. He now steps out for the first time for trainer Mark Newnham, who has a proven track record with stable transfers, and Super Unicorn could well be the next success story. No. 12 Harold Win simply can’t be dismissed from post 1 following a series of very strong efforts in quality form races. While Andrea Atzeni isn’t aboard this time, it’s a handy pick-up ride for Keith Yeung. No. 7 Prestige Always was out the back from post 10 over six furlongs last start—a trip short of his best—but was making late ground in a run that reads better than it looks. A strong trial win between runs and the rise in trip both work in his favor. Expect improvement on his second try around the city circuit. No. 6 King Of Fighters is an intriguing runner. He’s shown glimpses of ability both in Australia and Hong Kong, and now rises in distance after four six-furlong runs at Happy Valley. The extra trip could unlock the improvement needed for him to notch his first win.

Race 9 – Wyndham Handicap, div 2

No. 9 Dragon Four Seas drew wide in post 10 on his first try in Class 3 last time out. After being bumped at the start and taking a few strides to muster, he surged forward and worked hard to find the lead around the 3/8ths point. He held it until the 1/8th pole before the early effort told and he faded to sixth, beaten just over a length. His win prior came when ridden with a sit, and those tactics may be employed again—if so, and with a kinder race shape, he can bounce back. No. 3 Power Koepp, despite being a seven-year-old, has turned his form around since joining Mark Newnham, winning first-up for the yard, then placing narrowly before winning again smartly last start. He’s drawn to get the race run to suit and looms large again. No. 1 Happy Fat Cat made it nine career wins with an audacious all-the-way effort from post 11 last time. He now sits atop Class 3, but his natural speed and tough racing style ensure he’ll give a bold sight again. No. 10 Golden Rise was extremely disappointing last start from post 1 as favorite. He won’t be at the top of the market this time, but is worth another chance at a better price.

Luke Middlebrook is a contributor at Idol Horse. After catching the Hong Kong racing bug, Luke spent several years blogging about the sport before relocating to Singapore in 2016. There, he spent eight years as the resident expert at iRace Media, overseeing all form-related and editorial content for horse racing in Hong Kong and Singapore.

Coverage of the entire Hong Kong Thoroughbred season at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a sponsorship by the Hong Kong Jockey Club.