Hong Kong Wednesday morning: Picks, analysis, PPs

Race 1: 5 Tradition, 8 Harry’s Hero, 2 Podium, 3 The Khan.

Race 1 – Auteuil Handicap

No. 5 Tradition has been improving since the drop into Class 5, but his last-start run from post 13 on the all-weather is best overlooked. Instead, go on his second-place finish at this course and distance two runs back from a soft draw, which sets him up well to bounce back. No. 8 Harry’s Hero backs up quickly from last week where he was well supported and finished just half a length off California Moxie. He has the tools to go one better, although shifting out to post 9 from gate 1 does complicate the speed map. No. 2 Podium resumed from post 11 last start and was trapped wide without cover over the six furlongs. He again draws awkwardly in gate 10, but his form is solid enough to keep him in the conversation. No. 3 The Khan tends to get back in his races and is yet to place from seven runs at Happy Valley, but his latest effort here came with clear excuses. He’s not without a chance if things unfold his way.

Race 2 – Maisons-Laffitte Handicap

No. 12 Ace Talent was solid from post 12 last time out, leading until the final strides before being collared by Day Day Victory. Coming into post 4 improves his chances from a speed map perspective and enhances his winning claims. No. 3 Day Day Victory was heavily backed when scoring last start, and if he fronts up in the same form, he’ll be hard to beat again — especially having come up with pole position where he will map with every chance. No. 4 Ragnarr is a 19-start maiden but has been edging closer to a breakthrough since dropping into the cellar grade, picking up two placings from three Class 5 attempts, including a fast-finishing second on his first run at this course and distance. He is drawn widest, will likely be ridden for luck, but look for him late. No. 6 Ruby Sailing is a hard horse to catch given his ongoing ‘roaring’ issues, but he has trialed impressively ahead of his return and shapes as the dark horse who could bob up at odds.

Race 3 – The French May Trophy

No. 11 Perfect Pairing is eligible for Class 5 but remains in Class 4 on the light weight, and although a 14-start maiden with just one second placing to his name, that came last start at this course and distance when he stormed home and missed by under a length after copping traffic in the home straight. No. 3 Serangoon is not without claims, particularly at this course and distance, and was a solid third here last start from post 11. A better mid-draw can see his tactics revert to how they were when he won here four runs ago. No. 8 Management Folks picked up his second course and distance win over Perfect Pairing in that race and always warrants respect over the 1 3/8-mile Happy Valley trip. No. 6 Rosewood Fleetfoot is only lightly raced so is open to improvement, which he showed two runs ago when surprising in third place at long odds, but last start he was poor on the lead and weakened sharply. A change of tactics may be in store here to give him a better chance of fighting out the finish.

Race 4 – Chantilly Handicap

No. 2 Goko Win made his Class 4 debut last start but was drawn widest in post 12. He settled last in the run but was eye-catching late into fifth behind all-the-way winner Lucky Planet, and moving into an inside draw here should allow him to map closer and boost his prospects. No. 4 Majestic Delight is just a 3-year-old having his third start, and he showed big improvement second-up in the same race as Goko Win, closing in nicely into third. David Eustace has given him a trial between runs, and it was a promising piece of work suggesting he’ll come on again. No. 3 Smart Fighter gets more suitable conditions following three runs over unfavorable distances. Five runs ago, he defeated Masterofmyuniverse in a race of this nature, which reads well here and puts him in good stead to be competitive, especially drawn ideally low in post 2. No. 9 Good Prospect is knocking on the door for his first win after a series of solid efforts, and once again he’s in the mix but drawn a bit sticky compared to last time when he had post 1.

Race 5 – Saint-Cloud Handicap

No. 4 Mighty Commander returned to Class 4 last time, jumped from post 11 and was pushed forward to lead but did too much work and faded late into sixth. When he won in this grade previously, he was ridden more quietly, and a return to those tactics can improve his chances on his second attempt back in the grade. No. 10 Amazing Award has been in good form since notching his first win five runs ago. Last start he closed in nicely for fourth to Iconical, beaten just two lengths, following a get-back run into third prior. No. 1 Setanta is intriguing on the quick back-up and drops back into Class 4, where he holds a solid record of three wins from 11 starts, and comes off a third to A Americ Te Specso. He is going to receive a sweet run from his inside draw. No. 5 Flying Wrote may be ready for the rise in distance after looking a bit flat-footed as the favorite over six furlongs last start. A nice low draw should ensure a smooth trip up on the pace to boost his claims.

Race 6 – The France Galop Cup

No. 3 Loveisintheair is improving with racing and this marks his fourth career start following a fast-finishing third to Northern Fire Ball. He has trialed nicely between runs, and if he can settle just a touch closer this time, he’ll be very hard to hold out late. No. 2 Aurio moves into Class 4 and can start to be followed. He’s been the victim of wide post draws in recent runs yet has still performed well, and his third-place finish behind Beauty Destiny from post 1 four starts ago at this course and distance reads well here. No. 12 Telecom Power is on the verge of Class 5 but remains in Class 4 on a light weight. He had every chance from post 1 last start as favorite and while beaten, there was nothing wrong with his second to Jolly Ruler. No. 8 Excellent Peers hasn’t won in 903 days, but he’s been close up and has placed twice from 10 starts this season — he’s in the mix on an each-way basis.

Race 7 – Saint-Cloud Handicap, div 2

No. 4 Thesis was well backed into favoritism in the same race as Iconical but had too much to do from back in the field. He has shown previously that he can settle closer, and if able to do that here, he’ll be right in the mix. No. 6 Iconical backed up a promising trial with an all-the-way win at this course and distance for his breakthrough success at start seven. He has trialed well between runs and looks capable of going on with it now, but moving out to post 12 will require a lot more early luck to find the front. No. 1 Ivy League drops into Class 4 for the first time and hasn’t been far away in recent efforts at the foot of Class 3. He receives a strong jockey booking with Hugh Bowman in the saddle, which helps his chances. No. 11 Jumbo Fortune ran a good fourth from post 11 last start and, while unreliable as a win prospect — as his record suggests — is more than capable of filling a minor placing, especially with post 1 in his corner.

Race 8 – Deauville Handicap

No. 10 Lucky Touch checks plenty of boxes here as Zac Purton jumps back in the plate and a move into post 3 from 10 is going to turn his luck around from a speed map perspective. He’s been itching to win since rising into Class 3 and this looks his best opportunity yet. No. 9 Casa Rochester has taken some time to acclimatize, but a drop in the ratings and a move into Class 4 gave him his chance to break through at start five following a couple of luckless runs since the downgrade. He now returns to Class 3 but is on an upward trend and can acquit himself well in what looks a competitive race. No. 7 Highland Rahy strung together two all-the-way wins in Class 4 before stepping back up to Class 3 last time, where he was beaten a neck into second by A Americ Te Specso—strong form since—and he looks set for a soft lead again unless pressured early. No. 11 Quantum Patch was a nose away in second to Casa Rochester last start and, despite being winless in 532 days, is back in good form and warrants respect.

Race 9 – Parislongchamp Handicap

No. 10 King Miles is 305 days between wins but looks to be building towards another, especially since moving to this track and distance. Two starts ago he was badly held up when finishing eighth, before a narrow defeat to Crimson Flash last time out. With plenty of speed on paper, the race shape should suit his late swooping style. No. 7 Lucky Planet is thriving since joining Cody Mo’s yard three runs ago. After a promising third, he has since gone back-to-back in dominant fashion, winning by a combined margin of nearly six lengths. How much early pressure he cops here will be key, but if left alone up front, he’ll take some catching. No. 4 Chateauneuf steps away from post 1 which helps his chances big time, and he showed a good return to form last time checking in a close-up third to Crimson Flash, sticking on well from his on-pace position. That run places him in the firing line here. No. 9 Fatal Blow rises to Class 3 after landing his second career win at start five at the top of Class 4. With good tempo expected, he can settle just behind the speed, and while post 11 forces their hand tactically, he should still be in the mix late.

Luke Middlebrook is a Contributor at Idol Horse. After catching the Hong Kong racing bug, Luke spent several years blogging about the sport before relocating to Singapore in 2016. There, he spent eight years as the resident expert at iRace Media, overseeing all form-related and editorial content for horse racing in Hong Kong and Singapore.