Hong Kong Wednesday morning: Picks, analysis, PPs
Race 1: 3 Cervin, 1 Foremost Teddy, 6 Sky Prophet, 5 California Moxie
Race 1, Daegu Handicap
No. 3 Cervin can improve second-up. He resumed from post 12 at this course and distance three weeks ago, sat second in running but proved difficult to ride out in the straight and faded late into sixth, beaten three and a half lengths. This will be his second run back in Class 5 where he has to be considered, and perhaps a quieter ride, as seen five runs ago when he won well in a race of this nature, can bring out his best. No. 1 Foremost Teddy makes his Class 5 debut and, though a 15-start maiden, some of his Class 4 efforts would see him go closer to winning this. He can be competitive. No. 6 Sky Prophet has been hinting at a win since the downgrade and is off the back of a narrow defeat into second, albeit over six furlongs, so the rise in distance is the query, but his on-pace profile should serve him well. No. 5 California Moxie has been heavily supported in two runs in Class 5 but has disappointed. He’s been given a 42-day freshen-up and a good tick-over trial between runs, and he will likely present better value this time around.
Race 2, Incheon Handicap
No. 2 Top Time notched his first career win at start six on his first run at this course and distance last start after turning in several encouraging efforts prior. The 3-year-old is on an upward trend and looks hard to hold out again. No. 5 The Azure has shown ability, winning twice and placing three times from 13 starts, and he returned to form nicely last start from post 10, closing in well for third behind Casa Rochester. He will map well in the run from post 2 and launch his usual late bid. No. 8 Dragon Star had his first start for trainer Me Tsui when resuming a couple of weeks ago and turned in a promising run for second to Sunday's Serenade. It’s now 504 days between wins, but he likes to make his own luck up on the pace, which is a good trait around the city circuit. No. 4 Satirical Fan is a hard horse to catch, he’s a one-time winner from 11 starts without a placing, but he ticks a few boxes here on his third run back in Class 4 and looks the natural leader. With a well-timed ride, he’s not without hope.
Race 3, Seoul Handicap
No. 7 Glory Elite was involved in a hectic speed battle last start over six furlongs at Sha Tin, so he was more than entitled to be found wanting late, but he stuck on well for fourth, beaten just over two lengths. This is a hot race with plenty of in-form rivals to contend with at his second spin around the city circuit, but a measured ride on the lead could see him pinch it. No. 8 Colourful King is an up-and-coming three-year-old from the David Eustace camp who has won back-to-back races in Class 3, his last success brilliant as he dashed clear by two lengths. Up into Class 2 for the first time is a new test, but his swift turn of foot will make him hard to hold out late. No. 2 Aurora Lady boasts better form over six furlongs but the drop back in trip is not a major concern. His form is solid, including a last-start second to Beauty Destiny, and he has the tactical speed to take up a forward position. A trial between runs suggests he’s holding his form. No. 3 Red Elegance resumes from a break and goes well fresh. Like Colourful King, he is a winner of his last two starts and now tackles Class 2 for the first time. As a four-time track and distance winner, he cannot be ignored.
Race 4, Yeongcheon Handicap
No. 5 Nebraskan has been costly, still a 16-start maiden heading into this race, but he is good enough to win one. He was only collared late last start after vying to make all in the run, and two starts back from post 12 he again finished second, beaten by the same margin. A good trial win between runs suggests he is holding his form, and this looks a winnable race to finally break through. No. 2 Everstar has been catching the eye since dropping to Class 4, drawn wide two runs back and closing off strongly into fifth, then a close-up fourth last time after racing wide without cover. With a bit of luck he’s right in the thick of it. No. 3 Happy Trio is enjoying a consistent run after winning three starts back, backing that up with minor placings at his next two outings. He draws ideally in post 2, which ensures he receives one of the runs of the race. No. 10 Super Sicario is just a 3-year-old with little form on paper after four starts, but he has drawn no lower than post 10 in any of them. There was merit to his last-start 11th, and although drawn horribly wide again in post 11, it would not surprise to see him show further improvement.
Race 5, The Korea Racing Authority Trophy
No. 6 Mission Strike is just a 3-year-old who is nearing his first win. He may have found the 1 1/4 miles a stretch too far last start and did a bit wrong in the home straight. His prior run over 1 1/8 miles at this course and distance, where he settled last and charged home late into second behind Beauty Alliance, is the run to focus on here. No. 1 Harmony Galaxy has taken time to acclimatize in Hong Kong, but a drop in the ratings and a rise to 1 1/8 miles last start set things up nicely for him to finally break through after threatening to do so on several occasions. This is a competitive race with plenty of chances, but the manner in which he won last time gives confidence he can go on with it. No. 2 Prestige Good is improving since falling into Class 4, posting back-to-back third placings behind Sky Vino and Highland Rahy, both good form lines. This is just his second attempt over nine furlongs, and with only five Hong Kong starts under his belt so far, there should be more improvement to come. No. 4 Can't Go Wong cannot be overlooked after only being swamped late by a head into second behind Harmony Galaxy last start. He’s a reliable track and distance performer who maps to get all favors.
Race 6, Yeongcheon Handicap, div 2
No. 1 Giddy Up had his first start in Class 4 last time and made an instant impression, finishing a half-length second to Northern Fire Ball. A win in this grade looks just around the corner, and post 1 here provides the perfect opportunity. No. 5 Endued is unplaced from seven starts in Hong Kong thus far, but this marks his third attempt in Class 4 and his first run for a new stable, having transferred from Jamie Richards to Benno Yung. He was impressive in a recent post trial and, being a 3-year-old, is open to plenty of improvement with more racing. No. 7 Crystal Powerful is thriving. He won his third race two runs back at the top of Class 5 before returning to Class 4 and winning again, both times over five furlongs. As a two-time winner over six furlongs, the rise in trip holds no fears. No. 2 Perfect General enters this race as a beaten favorite in his last two starts, where last time he had every chance when third to Ace Power. Given a 42-day freshen-up, he since has won a trial heat nicely and is going to get every chance to bounce back.
Race 7, Busan Handicap
No. 7 Solid Car is building toward his first Hong Kong win after two promising runs. Last start, from post 11, he was ridden for luck out the back before surging late into fifth, beaten one and a half lengths by Beauty Destiny. He has since trialed nicely, and with a bit more luck in the run he can get his nose in front. No. 1 Spicy Gold is better suited returning to this course and distance where he’s performed best, following a late-fading sixth to Another World over seven furlongs at Sha Tin last time. post 1 gives him every chance to secure a soft run and be highly competitive. No. 5 Storm Rider was denied victory by a head margin last start but put the writing on the wall that another win is near now that he seems to have found his niche at Happy Valley. No. 9 Lo Pan Spirit will need his share of luck from post 11 and tries Happy Valley for the first time, but he comes off two encouraging runs at Sha Tin where he placed third behind Lifeline Express and Geneva, strong form lines for this.
Race 8, Jeju Handicap
No. 2 Hameron may have finished 2 1/2 lengths away in fourth last start, but he was held up for a good portion late and looked to have more to give. Zac Purton now picks up the ride, and that key jockey booking adds plenty of confidence for a big run. No. 11 Sturdy Ruby had too much to do from post 12 last start but there was nothing wrong with his effort, running from last into seventh. As he showed from an inside draw two runs back, his first attempt in Class 3, he can settle much closer, and that second to M Unicorn reads strongly for this. No. 5 Definitive has the gate speed to either lead or be right there in the first few in running. He’s relatively unexposed in Hong Kong with just seven starts for one win and two seconds, and he holds his form well, showing up with an impressive trial between runs. No. 8 Flying Fortress was rewarded for his consistency with a first local success last time out, and he did it in style, winning by a length. With only six local runs under his belt, he still has upside too.
Race 9, Busan Handicap, div 2
No. 6 Golden Rise closed in nicely for fourth last time out in a slowly run race, which adds good merit to the performance. This marks his third attempt in Class 3 and he looks on track to notch a win in the grade soon, and from post 1 it sets things up well for him. No. 1 Kaholo Angel returns to his happy hunting ground after contesting a hot race at Sha Tin last start, following a win here over Victory Sky two runs ago. Back at the city circuit, he is a strong chance. No. 9 Victory Sky is nearing his first Hong Kong win having finished in the money in two of his last three starts, including a promising first try at this course and distance last start. However, drawn in post 11 is not ideal and where he lands in the run remains to be seen. No. 4 Dragon Four Seas rises to Class 3 for the first time after stringing together back-to-back wins at the top of Class 4, both at this track and trip. The class rise should not be too much of a deterrent given his rich vein of form, and his on-pace racing pattern ensures he maps well if he can overcome post 10 early.
Luke Middlebrook is a Contributor at Idol Horse. After catching the Hong Kong racing bug, Luke spent several years blogging about the sport before relocating to Singapore in 2016. There, he spent eight years as the resident expert at iRace Media, overseeing all form-related and editorial content for horse racing in Hong Kong and Singapore.