Hong Kong Wednesday morning: Picks, analysis, PPs

Photo: Hong Kong Jockey Club TV

Race 1: 9 Patch Of Watch, 12 Diamond Soars, 6 Modest Gentleman, 2 Spicy So Smart

Race 1, Aster Handicap

No. 9 Patch Of Watch receives a big jockey upgrade with a senior rider in the saddle for the first time after four runs under an apprentice, as Zac Purton takes over. He’s a fast beginner who should be right up on the pace, and while his best form is over six furlongs, he maps favorably here. No. 12 Diamond Soars has drawn ideally in post 3 to suit his on-pace pattern. He hasn’t won for some time but has placed in three of his ten starts this season and remains competitive. No. 6 Modest Gentleman is suited by the drop back in distance after a fair fourth over six furlongs on the all-weather last time. He’ll be hoping for a fast-run race which will give him his chance to finish strongly late. No. 2 Spicy So Smart holds a strong record in this grade with two wins from three attempts and can’t be ignored even if he lacks form over the minimum trip.

Race 2, Bellflower Handicap

No. 8 Hakka Radiance was a sound runner-up at this course and distance two starts ago after racing too keenly throughout. Last start he showed a surprise change of tactics when dropping back to 1 1/8 miles and leading too quickly, fading late into fifth. In a wide-open race he deserves another chance. No. 10 Management Folks missed the start last time over 1 1/4 miles at Sha Tin before charging home late into second. He’s a proven course and distance winner and will be running on strongly late. No. 2 Serangoon has to overcome post 11 but won by a length over Management Folks at this course and distance three runs back before two forgettable runs at Sha Tin. Best to overlook those efforts and include him back at the city circuit where he’s best proven. No. 3 Capital Legend is having his third run since returning to Class 4 while stepping up to an unknown distance, but trainer Caspar Fownes recently pulled off a win with a similar setup and it wouldn’t surprise to see this runner in the mix.

Race 3, Thistle Handicap

No. 10 Iconical is an improving 4-year-old and, despite being unplaced in six starts to date, five of those have come over an unsuitable six furlongs. He stepped up to seven furlongs last start at Sha Tin but was drawn widest in post 14 and was never much hope from there. He has since trialed strongly, making all in his heat, and with Zac Purton taking the ride from post 4, similar tactics could be adopted. No. 2 Thesis is coming off a fast-finishing fourth over this distance on the all-weather, where he was dictated to by a wide draw. Prior to that, he was a winner and subsequent third-placegetter at this course and distance, so he can bounce back returning to the city circuit. No. 1 Sure Joyful is one to follow again now that he’s back in Class 4, where he looks to have a class edge on some of these. His last-start seventh was a solid run after drawing wide in gate 11 and flashing home late with a sharp final sectional. No. 6 Amazing Award is in with a chance having closed in nicely for third in his most recent run here and generally been consistent all season, including his first career win four starts ago.

Race 4, Violet Handicap

No. 2 Romantic Son broke through well two starts ago, but last start he drew wide in post 10, was steadied early to find cover before being hampered at the 4 1/2-furlong marker, taken wide and forced to race without cover from the three furlongs out, checking in just under five lengths away in 11th. Put a line through that run and give him another chance. No. 1 Wings Of War has trialed well since a few excusable efforts and is capable of bouncing back under more favorable conditions. He drew widest last time and was taken to the rear before closing off well into sixth, not beaten far. Prior to that, he was caught wide without cover. No. 6 Warriors Dream turned in a pass mark on debut with excuses, as he blundered at the start and lost ground, settled back and ran on well into eighth, just under three lengths off. He has since won a trial nicely and should be a sharp improver. No. 4 Power Koepp is interesting on the class rise after a dominant win at the top of Class 4 on his first start for Mark Newnham. He trialed well between runs and this doesn’t look the strongest Class 3, so he’s capable of measuring up.

Race 5, The Ewo Challenge Trophy

No. 5 Soaring Bronco gets an ideal draw in post 3 where he should receive a perfect run in transit. He backed up his overdue maiden win in Class 5 two starts ago with a fast-finishing second to Top Time, and a repeat of that performance puts him right in this. No. 1 Mighty Commander returns to Class 4 but has the task of overcoming gate 11. He was successful at this course and trip five runs back before stepping into Class 3 where he held his own with some honest efforts. In a wide-open race with many chances, he remains firmly in the mix. No. 3 Sunday’s Serenade broke through with purpose last start to shed his maiden tag after several close calls. He’s a progressive 4-year-old with more to come, and back-to-back wins look well within reach. No. 10 Accolade Start rises to a more suitable distance after a string of six furlongs runs where he turned in some encouraging efforts. Now well down in the handicap, he shapes as a knockout chance at odds.

Race 6, Violet Handicap

No. 7 King Miles has endured a horrid run of post draws this season, drawing no lower than post 11 in six of his nine starts. On his first spin around this course and distance last start, he jumped from the outside in post 12 and was held up for most of the straight. He was full of running and once clear, closed off well to finish just under four lengths away in eighth. He’s a knockout chance with a clear run. No. 1 Bundle Of Charm has gone a little over a year between wins but is now on a mark where he can strike. He ran third to Beauty Destiny here two starts ago, which reads well, and post 2 gives him the opportunity to enjoy a soft run. No. 2 Nucleozor has trialed strongly since his close-up ninth on local debut and looks ready to take a good step forward second-up, though post 10 isn’t ideal. No. 6 Crimson Flash should continue to improve with more racing in  his fifth local start, and he’s been finishing close in good races at Sha Tin. His on-pace pattern, with blinkers going on first time, should serve him well around this course.

Race 7, Dianthus Handicap

No. 10 Loving Vibes returns to Happy Valley for his third run around the city track after a pair of strong second-place finishes in decent races at Sha Tin. He’s still on the hunt for a maiden win at start 11 but looks very close to breaking through. No. 2 Know At Heart is unplaced in five local starts but has turned in some encouraging efforts nonetheless. He will relish the class drop and should be finding his way into the money from post 3. No. 1 Fatal Blow maps well up on the pace from post 4. His form tapered off after a maiden win three runs back, though one of those efforts saw him posted wide, and he has trialed well ahead of his return, which gives him claims here. No. 8 Glory B has been in good form this season with a win and three seconds from eight outings and is not without a chance with Hugh Bowman taking the ride.

Race 8, Dianthus Handicap, div 2

No. 2 Our Lucky Glory is on his fourth attempt back in Class 4 and is capable of bouncing back for a win anytime in this grade. Two starts ago he was a narrow runner-up to Tactical Command before a last-start seventh after drawing out in post 11. Moving into post 2 provides an opportunity to strike. No. 5 Lucky Planet scored an audacious all-the-way win at Sha Tin last start and the speed map looks firmly in his favor here to repeat a similar feat. No. 1 Goko Win makes his Class 4 debut and should find this a lot easier than recent outings. Though winless for a little over two years, he has been finishing close up lately which puts him in good stead to be competitive, but post 12 is going to make him earn his spot in the finish. No. 4 Great Spirit notched his second career win last start and, if he’s held his form, remains in the mix.

Race 9, Chamomile Handicap

No. 4 Embraces returns to Happy Valley after a series of solid performances at Sha Tin, including a last-start second behind Patch Of Cosmo, a promising horse on the rise. He was held up from the two furlongs until passing the furlong pole on that occasion, so there was plenty of merit to the run. No. 8 Lucky Touch is well overdue for a second career win after a string of placings, including his first Class 3 attempt last start where he was beaten only half a length into third. No. 3 Aestheticism broke his Class 3 duck in fine style last start after threatening to do so on many occasions. Zac Purton remains in the saddle and once again he shapes as a genuine winning chance. No. 7 Highland Rahy has found career-best form after taking time and a drop in the ratings to find his feet. He returns to Class 3 off back-to-back, all-the-way wins at this course and distance in Class 4, and the speed map again appears to favor his chances.

Luke Middlebrook is a Contributor at Idol Horse. After catching the Hong Kong racing bug, Luke spent several years blogging about the sport before relocating to Singapore in 2016. There, he spent eight years as the resident expert at iRace Media, overseeing all form-related and editorial content for horse racing in Hong Kong and Singapore.