Hong Kong Wednesday morning: Picks, analysis, PPs

Racing from Happy Valley in Hong Kong is Wednesday morning at 6:40 a.m. EDT. Free PPs are available at Horse Racing Nation. For more free Handicapping information, visit the Hong Kong Jockey Club website.

Race 1: 3 Family Fortune, 7 Zetta Force, 5 Happy Buddies, 2 Setanta

Race 2: 9 Chill Master, 2 Always My Folks, 3 Autumn Vibes, 5 Runjeet

Race 3: 1 Young Arrow, 3 Captain Link, 2 Beauty Glory, 7 Forerunner

Race 4: 10 Run Run Timing, 6 Dashing Maurison, 2 Star Mac, 9 Can’t Go Wong

Race 5: 11 Loving Vibes, 7 Brownneedsfurther, 5 Georgian Sigma, 1 Flashing Fighter

Race 6: 5 Vigor Eye, 7 Nebraskan, 1 The Heir, 2 Bright Day

Race 7: 5 Amazing Kid, 1 Happy Index, 10 Ace Champion, 7 King Profit Profit

Race 8: 7 Beauty Alliance, 9 Armor Golden Eagle, 6 Silvery Breeze, 3 Packing Angel

Race 9: 4 Without Compare, 1 Smart Avenue, 2 Mister Dapper, 3 Fivefortwo

Race 1 - Mount Butler Handicap

No. 3 Family Fortune gets back to his best track and distance, where he has two wins from four attempts, following a big run into fourth from a wide draw over 1 1/8 miles at Sha Tin. Post 1 is an ideal map upgrade and he looks the one to beat. No. 7 Zetta Force has post 11 to overcome, but his last two runs have been full of merit and have him nearing a win in the grade. No. 5 Happy Buddies comes off three runs from outside posts, where he has not had ideal runs in transit, but post 5 today can see things take a turn for the better. No. 2 Setanta will hope for the pace to be on, which looks genuine on paper, and his last-start second shows he is ready to win in the grade.

Race 2 - Mount Nicholson Handicap

No. 9 Chill Master resumes and has trialed very well for his return under Jerry Chau, who sticks with him on race day after being aboard for his close-up third last time. No. 2 Always My Folks broke through for his first win last start at this track over the minimum trip, which was his fourth run for Danny Shum. Purton stays aboard, post 3 gives them the right set-up and they get the chance to repeat the dose. No. 3 Autumn Vibes gets another look at his second start for Brett Crawford. He was disappointing in eighth at his first run for the stable but did not have an ideal trip on that occasion, racing too keenly. No. 5 Runjeet is a stable switcher from David Eustace to Douglas Whyte, his trial was a pass mark and post 1 sets him up for a good run.

Race 3 - Wong Nai Chung Gap Handicap

No. 1 Young Arrow maps for a better run from post 6 than he had last time from stall 12, when he still closed strongly into third after a luckless third the start prior. He is ready to win when everything falls into place. No. 3 Captain Link steps away from post 2 and can map ideally, while his last-start sixth was better than it reads after he did not have the best of runs throughout. No. 2 Beauty Glory raced wide throughout on his return to Class 4, so his fifth-place finish carried merit. From post 3 today, he should map far kinder. No. 7 Forerunner had post 2 last start when closing off best behind Nebraskan in a slowly run race, but from post 8 today he may not get the same run. Still, he has been knocking on the door.

Race 4 - Middle Gap Handicap

No. 10 Run Run Timing has been running well all season since switching to Ricky Yiu’s stable, winning once and placing six times from nine starts, and now gets Purton in the saddle for the first time from post 1, where he will map up front and be hard to beat. No. 6 Dashing Maurison is only a three-year-old who is hitting his straps, having won his maiden in Class 5 over 1 1/8 miles before returning to Class 4 and missing by a nose. No. 2 Star Mac is a better chance with blinkers back on for his second start for the David Hall stable. No. 9 Can’t Go Wong is getting back down to a workable rating and arrives off a fast-finishing third in the same race as Dashing Maurison. Post 4 sets him up for the right run.

Race 5 - The Cricket Club Valley Stakes

No. 11 Loving Vibes gets the post he has been looking for since switching to Mark Newnham’s stable four runs ago, having drawn no lower than 11 in that time. He backs up quickly after a close second here last week and now maps for every chance. No. 7 Brownneedsfurther had his share of trouble in the run last time when second to Vulcanus. Purton goes on for the first time, post 3 gives him every chance and he has been banging on the door all season. No. 5 Georgian Sigma is only a three-year-old but has done a good job against older horses in his two most recent runs, and first-time blinkers might be the extra aid he needs. No. 1 Flashing Fighter needs plenty to go right from post 12, but Bowman taking over from an apprentice rider catches the eye. He won well on debut, then had excuses second-up.

Race 6 - Wong Nai Chung Gap Handicap, div 2

No. 5 Vigor Eye won well from post 2 two runs ago, then had a poor trip from post 7 next start and weakened to last. He has trialled well since and the map upgrade brings him back into the conversation. No. 7 Nebraskan is thriving, winning his last two races easily with front-running tactics, and he will be hard to peg back if he avoids early pressure. No. 1 The Heir is set to receive a sweet run from post 2 as he chases back-to-back wins. No. 2 Bright Day is on the seven-day turnaround after making full use of post 1 to win easily. Post 7 gives him a different set-up today, but he is hard to knock in his current rich vein of form.

Race 7 - Shouson Hill Handicap

No. 5 Amazing Kid comes off a series of luckless runs, having covered ground in his last three starts. Post 5 can be the map upgrade he has been searching for. No. 1 Happy Index comes off two runs from outside posts, most recently stepping away from stall 12 at his first Happy Valley run, where he was used up early before weakening. He is better than that and, with better luck in the run from post 9 today, he can atone. No. 10 Ace Champion is a better chance back at Happy Valley after a fair sixth on the yielding ground at Sha Tin last start. Before that, he raced wide from an outside stall here, but the start prior he was a narrow second from post 1, the draw he gets again today. No. 7 King Profit is in career-best form and can handle the class rise after a big win from post 12 in Class 4.

Race 8 - Tai Tam Gap Handicap

No. 7 Beauty Alliance gets conditions more in his favor today as he steps up to 1 1/8 miles, where he is a two-time winner from four attempts at the track and distance. He also comes into post 2 after drawing 11 last time, which helps in an ultra-competitive Class 2 contest. No. 9 Armor Golden Eagle is thriving and backs up quickly after posting back-to-back wins over the one mile last week. This is a sharp rise in class, but he is in fine form. No. 6 Silvery Breeze gets post 1 and Purton in the saddle, giving him his best chance yet over 1 1/8 miles after two unplaced attempts at the distance. No. 3 Packing Angel won smartly over a few of these over one mile last time, his first look at Happy Valley, and he clearly relished the city circuit.

Race 9 - Violet Hill Handicap

No. 4 Without Compare reunites with Jerry Chau after the pair won a race of this nature two runs ago from post 12, when Chau made a decisive mid-race move that paid off. He arrives second-up off an encouraging first-up second at Sha Tin. No. 1 Smart Avenue comes to Happy Valley for the first time off a big win, when Purton rode him for the first time, and the race looks likely to suit his pattern. He can go back-to-back. No. 2 Mister Dapper maps for a much better run today from post 3 than he did last start from an outside stall, when he had an apprentice in the saddle and weakened after being used up early. No. 3 Fivefortwo will relish a truly run race and can get into it late with his swift turn of foot. 

Luke Middlebrook is a contributor at Idol Horse. After blogging about the sport for years, he spent eight years in Singapore as the resident expert at iRace Media, overseeing form and editorial content for racing in Hong Kong and Singapore. Coverage of the entire Hong Kong Thoroughbred season at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a sponsorship by the Hong Kong Jockey Club.