Hong Kong Wednesday morning: Picks, analysis, PPs

Midweek Hong Kong action from Happy Valley is Wednesday at 6:30 a.m. EDT. Free PPs are available at Horse Racing Nation. For more free handicapping information, visit the Hong Kong Jockey Club website.

Race 1: 1 Courier Magic, 2 Ninja Derby, 11 The Way We Win, 6 Foremost Teddy

Race 2: 2 Northern Beast, 9 No Other Choice, 3 Chain Of Gold, 7 Prince Alex

Race 3: 1 Dancing Classics, 5 Peridot, 3 Argento Ocean, 4 Owners’ Sunshine

Race 4: 7 Thunder Prince, 8 Incanto Star, 2 The Perfect Match, 12 Golden Friendship

Race 5: 4 Forever Glorious, 1 Sunday’s Serenade, 7 Youth Power, 9 Young Fighter

Race 6: 3 Tourbillon Golfer, 5 Mr Desira, 1 Find My Love, 12 Zetta Force

Race 7: 9 Jumbo Legend, 3 Encountered, 5 Lo Rider, 8 Speed Dragon

Race 8: 6 King Miles, 1 Storm Rider, 3 Super Infinity, 2 La Forza

Race 9: 8 Excellence Value, 2 Joy Of Spring, 1 Cambridge, 6 Wrote A New Page

Race 1, Ngau Chi Wan Handicap

No. 1 Courier Magic ended last season with a fast-finishing third as he returned to Class 5, where he holds a strong record. His trial for return was encouraging and with Zac Purton taking the ride, he gets every chance to resume as a winner. No. 2 Ninja Derby was given a peach first-up to lead all the way and while he’s drawn widest this time, he has the pace to offset it and is capable of giving another sight. No. 11 The Way We Win produced his best run yet when a closing second at Sha Tin and with the inside draw aiding his pattern, he’s one who can take another step forward. No. 6 Foremost Teddy looked in need of the run first-up and can strip fitter here, with a minor gear tweak possibly sparking a sharper effort second-up.

Race 2, Hung Luen Handicap

No. 2 Northern Beast ticks plenty of boxes third-up, reuniting with Zac Purton and drawing ideally in post 1. This marks his fifth run back in Class 4 and he looks ready to strike. No. 9 No Other Choice pulled too hard last start and had nothing left late, but his first-up effort was much better and with a more controlled trip he can bounce back. No. 3 Chain Of Gold has been building nicely since dropping to this grade and his first-up run was a solid platform to improve from. No. 7 Prince Alex steps back to a more suitable trip and, while he’ll need luck from the wide gate, he’s shown he can finish off strongly when things fall into place.

Race 3, Fung Mo Handicap

No. 1 Dancing Classics should take good benefit from his first-up run where he sat on the pace before fading late in a genuinely run race. He comes into this second-up with post 1, 5 pounds off his back thanks to Ellis Wong’s claim, and maps to get all the favors. He’s right in the mix. No. 5 Peridot also looks a likely improver off his first-up effort and is trending the right way with more experience, though he’ll need some luck early from post 12. No. 3 Argento Ocean continues to improve with racing and the addition of cheekpieces plus a switch to the city circuit could unlock further improvement. No. 4 Owners’ Sunshine steps up to six furlongs after making solid ground late over the five furlong second-up and looks ready to peak now third-up.

Race 4, Fung Mo Handicap, div 2

No. 7 Thunder Prince has dropped a long way in the ratings and now lines up for Jamie Richards following a stable switch and a strong trial. He gets his chance in a thin race to finally make his mark in Hong Kong. No. 8 Incanto Star caught the eye late when resuming over five furlongs and now gets Zac Purton on for his third start, stepping up to six furlongs which looks ideal. If he can use post 4 to hold a spot early, he’ll be a great chance. No. 2 The Perfect Match returned soundly from a break with another second-place finish, and while the draw makes things trickier, he is on his way to another win. No. 12 Golden Friendship ran a much-improved race when resuming in Class 5 and can give another sight up on the speed with no weight on his back despite the rise in grade.

Race 5, Hung Luen Handicap, div 2

No. 4 Forever Glorious resumes for Brett Crawford and brings two solid trials into this first-up run. Barrier 2 ensures a soft run on speed, which suits his pattern, and he’s more than capable of giving a bold sight fresh. No. 1 Sunday’s Serenade returns to his preferred course and distance with the benefit of two runs under his belt and Zac Purton now taking over. No. 7 Youth Power showed his usual tenacity when resuming over this course and trip, rolling forward to lead and sticking on gamely for third. He’ll make his presence felt again. No. 9 Young Fighter has been finding his way, but the step up in trip suits based on his pedigree, and he draws to enjoy a smothered run from post 3, which can bring out further improvement.

Race 6, Fung Mo Handicap, div 3

No. 3 Tourbillon Golfer looks ready to win after a solid first-up effort at Sha Tin where he worked early from a wide draw and faded late into fourth in a strong form race. He’s drawn wide again but with little speed on paper, Purton may be able to cross and control. No. 5 Mr Desira made a promising return over five furlongs when leading and sticking on gamely for second. He gets an ideal draw here and can dictate terms stepping up to six furlongs. No. 1 Find My Love had no luck late when returning to this grade, held up inside the last 1/8 and finishing a length off the winner. He stays in the mix off that run. No. 12 Zetta Force has quietly trialled well since transferring to Dennis Yip and maps for a soft run from post 3. He’s an each-way chance at odds.

Race 7, Lei Yue Mun Handicap

No. 9 Jumbo Legend ran a strong race into fifth first-up over the extended mile and stepping to 1 1/8 miles second-up is a good set-up for him to be hard to hold out. No. 3 Encountered also resumed in that same race, his first run for Brett Crawford, and made a late dive to just miss. He maps well again from a middle draw and clearly has settled in well with the new yard. No. 5 Lo Rider won that race with a dream run from post 1 and while he won’t get the same favors from gate 9, he remains a lightly raced talent with more upside. No. 8 Speed Dragon will drop back from his wide draw and be saved for one run; he’s capable of charging home if the tempo suits.

Race 8, Hok Yuen Handicap

No. 6 King Miles was frustrating last season, placing second in three of his five runs at this course and trip. He gets another shot here first-up from post 1, with Francis Lui applying blinkers which he trialled well in, no excuses. No. 1 Storm Rider, with blinkers back on, should improve sharply second-up after being eased back early first-up at Sha Tin before closing off well for fifth. No. 3 Super Infinity, for the in-form Mark Newnham yard, also draws nicely in gate 4 to map just off the speed. He’s been consistent despite not winning in over a year, and while this marks his Happy Valley debut, he brings strong Sha Tin form that keeps him in the mix. No. 2 La Forza draws wide in post 11 but has the early speed to potentially overcome it, though running out a strong six furlongs remains a query based on what he’s shown so far.

Race 9, Lung Cheung Handicap

No. 8 Excellence Value resumed with a close-up fifth over 1,650 eters and should come on for the run second-up stepping to 1 1/8 miles, where although yet to win, he’s been runner-up on both attempts. No. 2 Joy Of Spring is a two-time winner from three at the course and trip and has returned in good form, with his chances hinging on where he lands in the run. Last start he settled too far back and struck traffic in the straight but still finished close in eighth. No. 1 Cambridge gets the right conditions here with solid speed on to suit his pattern while getting back to Happy Valley, where he’s well performed, should also help following a forgivable first-up run at Sha Tin. No. 6 Wrote A New Page can show tactical versatility and doesn’t necessarily need to lead, while returning to the Valley, where he’s three from three, gives his chances a lift.

Luke Middlebrook is a contributor at Idol Horse. After blogging about the sport for years, he spent eight years in Singapore as the resident expert at iRace Media, overseeing form and editorial content for racing in Hong Kong and Singapore. Coverage of the entire Hong Kong Thoroughbred season at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a sponsorship by the Hong Kong Jockey Club.