Hong Kong Wednesday morning: Picks, analysis, PPs
Hong Kong racing is back at Happy Valley Wednesday morning beginning at 6:40 a.m. EDT. Free PPs are available at Horse Racing Nation. For more free handicapping information, visit the Hong Kong Jockey Club website.
Race 1: 4 Sky Prophet, 5 Ever Smart, 8 Gallant Goody, 6 Joyful Life
Race 2: 6 Ragnarr, 4 Camp Fire, 9 So Awesome, 7 Hoss
Race 3: 1 Beauty Viva, 10 Hakka Radiance, 8 Perfect Pairing, 7 Management Folks
Race 4: 6 Island Buddy, 5 Thunder Prince, 9 Rewarding Twinkle, 3 Sweet Briar
Race 5: 1 Prestige Good, 5 Sight Supreme, 11 Jumbo Fortune, 12 Super Sicario
Race 6: 3 Tactical Command, 2 Young Arrow, 10 Telecom Power, 1 California Deeply
Race 7: 6 Lucky Touch, 3 Hameron, 5 Flying Fortress, 7 Samarkand
Race 8: 3 Sky Vino, 6 Swagger Bro, 8 Iconical, 4 Satirical Fan
Race 9: 11 Watch This One, 3 Spicy Gold, 8 Wukong Jewellery, 10 Goko Win
Race 1, Dordogne Handicap
No. 4 Sky Prophet was unsuited rising to the extended mile last start and had some excuses in running, but his effort over this distance prior when a close-up second under Hugh Bowman reads well. He reunites with Bowman here and looks set to bounce back. No. 5 Ever Smart has been edging towards a first win since the downgrade, placing in four of seven starts in this grade, and once again shapes as a contender with an anticipated soft run. No. 8 Gallant Goody resumes for his second start since joining the David Hall yard and post 1 is a big positive as he drops further in the ratings. He’s capable of showing more. No. 6 Joyful Life is another long-standing maiden, but he draws well in gate 2 and can improve on recent form with a more favorable run in transit. Worth considering for the minors.
Race 2, Dordogne Handicap, div 2
No. 6 Ragnarr steps back up to six furlongs after two good runs over five furlongs, a fast-finishing second two starts ago and an unlucky sixth last time from post 12. Moving into a middle draw with the distance rise brings him right back into contention. No. 4 Camp Fire is on his third attempt in Class 5 and has trialed well between runs. He looks ready to improve on his encouraging first-up fifth. No. 9 So Awesome has been racing over longer trips with solid form, but the drop back in distance shouldn’t pose a problem. From a low draw, he can map positively and be in with a genuine shot. No. 7 Hoss is edging closer to a win in this grade, but his negative racing pattern and another wide post work against him. Look for him charging late again.
Race 3, Loire Handicap
No. 1 Beauty Viva steps out for his third start in Class 4 and looks ready to win after putting the writing on the wall last time with a fast-finishing second. He was held up from the quarter-mile point until passing the three-sisteenths-mile point and closed off strongly. He’ll be hard to hold out with clearer running. No. 10 Hakka Radiance remains a 20-start Hong Kong maiden but has been edging closer to a breakthrough this season, posting five placings from 12 runs, three of those over this course and distance. No. 8 Perfect Pairing broke through last start at this course and trip with a strong win, following a near last-to-second effort the start prior. He’s trending the right way and can be followed up. No. 7 Management Folks is a two-time course and distance winner and rarely runs a bad race here, having also placed four times from nine tries at the trip. He remains a solid each-way contender.
Race 4, Ciron Handicap
No. 6 Island Buddy has drawn no lower than post 9 in his last five runs, which, given his on-pace profile, means he’s been made to work hard early. His first try at this course and distance last start was encouraging, leading from post 12 before being swamped late into fourth, beaten only half a length. No. 5 Thunder Prince maps to get a soft run from gate 3, and with Hugh Bowman remaining aboard, he’s well down in the ratings now and capable of picking up a Class 4 win. No. 9 Rewarding Twinkle is an interesting runner resuming off a stable transfer to Frankie Lor. His recent trial was encouraging and the change of yards might spark the necessary improvement from this lightly raced 3-year-old. No. 3 Sweet Briar, a three-time winner from six in this class, is worth keeping safe on his second try back in Class 4. He faded to ninth last start but wasn’t beaten all that far and can improve with a smoother trip.
Race 5, The Sauternes's Cup
No. 1 Prestige Good has been holding consistent form since finding his way into Class 4, with three successive third-place finishes. He maps to get one of the runs of the race here in what shapes as a fiercely competitive contest. No. 5 Sight Supreme resumes and, for once, comes up with a good draw in post 1 after drawing no lower than gate 9 in recent starts. He can make use of the inside alley and improve his Happy Valley stats off a quiet trial. No. 11 Jumbo Fortune, a one-time winner from 56 local starts, is on the quick seven-day turnaround following a luckless eighth last time, where he was checked at the eighth-mile and again disappointed for room passing the final sixtheenth. No. 12 Super Sicario showed positive change last start when able to race on pace from a good draw for the first time in his six-start career. He only faded late into sixth, beaten two and a half lengths. As a 3-year-old, he's still improving and can take another solid step forward here.
Race 6, Ciron Handicap, div 2
No. 3 Tactical Command strung together back-to-back wins before being undone by wide draws in his two most recent runs. Despite that, his efforts were still credible given his positions in running, and moving into a better draw here gives him the chance to return to a more favorable map and bounce back to winning form. No. 2 Young Arrow remains winless after 11 Hong Kong starts but has consistently gone close, with four third-place finishes and rarely being far from the finish. He now drops into Class 4 for the first time, which sets him up nicely to be competitive. No. 10 Telecom Power needed 18 starts to finally break through, but he did it well, and his overall form this season has been consistently solid. A slightly trickier draw changes his speed map scenario, but he remains in the mix. No. 1 California Deeply dropped back into Class 4 last start and produced a strong closing fourth, beaten under two lengths, a good return to the grade that places him right in the frame again.
Race 7, Rhine Handicap
No. 6 Lucky Touch struck traffic in the straight last time out before finding clear air and charging late into second when it was too late. He gets another chance here, having been itching to break through in Class 3 since moving into the grade three starts ago. No. 3 Hameron has been back in good form despite little luck. Two starts ago he was held up late and couldn’t be fully tested, and last time he was forced wide early before being steadied through the field, yet still closed off well late. No. 5 Flying Fortress posted his first Hong Kong win two starts ago with a comfortable one-length victory over Rocket Spade, and followed up with another solid effort when beaten a neck into second after doing some early work from post 10. He’s in with another strong chance. No. 7 Samarkand maps to land on pace in a race lacking early tempo. It’s been a while between wins, but his last-start third over 1 1/8 miles was encouraging and he’s one to consider.
Race 8, Garonne Handicap
No. 3 Sky Vino finally draws a gate after three successive wide posts since his breakthrough win four starts ago. From post 4, he maps to get one of the runs of the race given his on-pace profile and looks the one to beat. No. 6 Swagger Bro has been running well without much luck since dropping into Class 4, and now the rise in trip may unlock further improvement to see him in the money. No. 8 Iconical is a noted pace influence who led all the way to win two starts ago, but did too much work from post 12 last time out. He now moves into a mid-draw and can bounce back. No. 4 Satirical Fan should find somewhere near the front with ease from his inside gate and, coming off a neck second, is well placed to break through for his first win in over a year after returning to Class 4 and recapturing form.
Race 9, Seine Handicap
No. 11 Watch This One lines up for his fourth local start after rearing at the jump last time and never threatening thereafter. His trial since has been encouraging, and from post 2 he’s well placed to run a much-improved race given his close-up finishes prior to that mishap. No. 3 Spicy Gold has already had a stellar season, posting three wins and three seconds, including a runner-up effort last time out behind Happy Fat Cat. He maps to get the run of the race and looks primed to go one better. No. 8 Wukong Jewellery finished midfield in seventh on his Hong Kong debut, four and a half lengths behind Crimson Flash. He’ll take plenty of improvement from that run and looks set to show more second-up. No. 10 Goko Win draws post 1 again, which proved the winning formula last start when he turned in a big performance to score at the top of Class 4. With another all-favors run from the paint, that inside draw can help offset the class rise back up into Class 3.
Luke Middlebrook is a Contributor at Idol Horse. After catching the Hong Kong racing bug, Luke spent several years blogging about the sport before relocating to Singapore in 2016. There, he spent eight years as the resident expert at iRace Media, overseeing all form-related and editorial content for horse racing in Hong Kong and Singapore.
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