Hong Kong Wednesday: Picks, analysis, free PPs

Hong Kong racing from Happy Valley springs from the gate Wednesday morning at 6:40 a.m. EDT. Free PPs are available at Horse Racing Nation. For more free Handicapping information, visit the Hong Kong Jockey Club website.

Race 1: 3 Setanta, 11 Dragon Sunrise, 2 Prince Alex, 6 Zetta Force

Race 2: 8 Forerunner, 1 Beauty Glory, 7 Blasted Talent, 2 Charming Babe

Race 3: 1 Fivefortwo, 7 Romantic Gladiator, 4 All Round Winner, 9 Super Unicorn

Race 4: 12 Lakeshore Hero, 3 Mega Mastermind, 1 Mighty Steed, 5 Noble Pursuit

Race 5: 8 Ace War, 1 Liveandletlive, 5 The Auspicious, 3 Flying Luck

Race 6: 9 Incanto Star, 7 The Azure, 8 Precision Hope, 10 Run Run Timing

Race 7: 8 Tactical Command, 6 Vigor Eye, 9 Jumbo Blessing, 12 Winning Now

Race 8: 9 Flash Current, 2 Aurio, 10 Somelovefromabove, 11 Motor

Race 9: 1 Speed Dragon, 8 Silvery Breeze, 4 Soleil Fighter, 10 Beauty Alliance

Race 1 - Maisons-Laffitte Handicap

No. 3 Setanta is a better chance back to this track and distance, especially with blinkers reapplied. This is his second start in Class 5 and he looks ready to make his presence felt. No. 11 Dragon Sunrise had a poor trip last start after being steadied at the half-mile pole, then racing wide and without cover thereafter. Purton stays aboard, which is a good sign. No. 2 Prince Alex has trialled well leading into his first Class 5 start and has drawn low in post 2 for a sweet run. No. 6 Zetta Force is relatively unexposed compared with the rest of the field, with only 12 starts, and he put the writing on the wall last time with a fast-finishing third at just his third attempt in Class 5. Jerry Chau is riding well and remains in the saddle.

Race 2 - Chantilly Handicap

No. 8 Forerunner was ridden too close to the speed last start and faded late into fourth, but it was still a good run. Before that, he was a fast-finishing second when ridden with more patience, and similar tactics from post 2 today can see him well placed off what should be a genuine tempo. No. 1 Beauty Glory can be followed again as he drops back into Class 4 for the first time since November, when he was successful in an all-the-way win. No. 7 Blasted Talent is only a three-year-old and should improve with time, but he has shown improvement in a trial since finishing 12th on the all-weather in a run that was better than it reads. Moreira takes the ride now and that can mean plenty. No. 2 Charming Babe is better placed back at this track and trip after returning to Class 4 last time at Sha Tin over seven furlongs, which is not his go.

Race 3 - The French May Trophy

No. 1 Fivefortwo should not have to get as far back from post 2 today as he did from post 8 last time, when he was steadied early and left with too much ground to make up. He still closed well into fifth, beaten under three lengths, and gets a better set-up here. No. 7 Romantic Gladiator has been building toward a first Hong Kong win through four starts and put the writing on the wall last time when beaten half a length into second. He has trialled quietly but nicely since under Purton, who takes the ride for the first time under race conditions from post 1. No. 4 All Round Winner won on the quick back-up last start, giving him his second win from six starts since the blinkers went on. No. 9 Super Unicorn reunites with Andrea Atzeni, which is meaningful, and under the right race shape he can be hard to hold out.

Race 4 - Saint-Cloud Handicap

No. 12 Lakeshore Hero is on the quick back-up after bouncing back into the money over six furlongs on the all-weather, and he carries next to no weight this time with Britney Wong’s seven-pound claim bringing him in on 109 pounds. No. 3 Mega Mastermind steps away from post 3 and should find the lead with ease, or at least race prominently. He arrives with strong Sha Tin form, having shed his maiden tag two starts ago before a close-up second, and he should be tough to peg back. No. 1 Mighty Steed comes off back-to-back seconds and is always a chance in this grade. Purton remains in the saddle. No. 5 Noble Pursuit looks likely to get a good run just off the speed from post 4. He is more than capable off his current mark and blinkers going back on could do the trick.

Race 5 - The France Galop Cup

No. 8 Ace War has been an improver since joining the Newnham stable, posting back-to-back wins in Class 4 before his hat-trick bid was cut short when rising into Class 3. He was too far back from post 11 before flashing late into second, beaten half a length, and he may not need to settle as far back from post 9 today. That gives him his chance to turn the tables on The Auspicious. No. 1 Liveandletlive maps to control from post 1, and a measured Hugh Bowman ride will make him hard to get past. No. 5 The Auspicious beat both Ace War and Liveandletlive convincingly last time, unleashing a sharp turn of foot to get up in the shadows of the post. He can be right there again from post 2. No. 3 Flying Luck is an interesting prospect coming to Happy Valley for the first time, and as a Caspar Fownes-trained runner, the city circuit will suit.

Race 6 - Saint-Cloud Handicap, div 2

No. 9 Incanto Star gets a better set-up today from post 2 than he did last time from post 10 over the mile at Sha Tin. He had poor trips in his two runs before that after the blinkers went on, and with the low draw today, he can finally map cleanly. No. 7 The Azure has slid down the ratings and is on a competitive mark. Purton returning to the saddle is timely, as he has not ridden him since April last year, which was the horse’s most recent win. No. 8 Precision Hope has not figured in the finish in six starts but has been getting better with racing. The four-year-old has trialled well since his latest run and a better post draw improves his chances. No. 10 Run Run Timing has post 11 to navigate, but there does not appear to be too much speed on paper, which should allow him to come across and give a sight.

Race 7 - Chantilly Handicap, div 2

No. 8 Tactical Command has been coming back into form recently and now strikes a race where the set-up looks to favor him. From post 4, he can camp just off the speed in a stalking position behind what should be a genuine tempo. No. 6 Vigor Eye had the perfect run from post 2 when breaking through for his first win last time, which was also his first run at the city circuit, and Purton only needs to find a similar trip from the slightly more awkward post 6 to be in the finish again. No. 9 Jumbo Blessing comes off a fast-finishing fifth over five furlongs and the step to six furlongs now looks timely. No. 12 Winning Now will give a sight from post 2 at the foot of the weights. He comes off his best run yet, when narrowly beaten into second after trying to make all.

Race 8 - Deauville Handicap

No. 9 Flash Current comes with the usual caveat as a backmarker, but he is capable and recent runs suggest he is back in form. A head second to Emblazon four starts ago reads well for a race like this, while wide draws in his last two runs have not helped. He was also held up for a good portion of the straight last time when finishing just under four lengths behind Fortune Link. No. 2 Aurio dashed late into second in a slowly run race last time, continuing his good run of form this season since joining Manfred Man’s stable. Purton remains in the saddle and, from post 4, the set-up is kind. No. 10 Somelovefromabove showed he was up to this class last start with a close-up third off the back of back-to-back wins in Class 4. No. 11 Motor maps for a sweet run from post 1 as a lightweight chance.

Race 9 - ParisLongchamp Handicap

No. 1 Speed Dragon has to carry top weight, but he arrives in good form first-up since his fast-finishing third to Winning Ovation. His fresh record is strong, as is his Happy Valley record of three wins from five. No. 8 Silvery Breeze gets his second look in Class 2 after a fighting win at the top of Class 3 under top weight. The weight relief can mean plenty in a competitive Class 2 contest, while his trial between runs suggests his form remains intact. No. 4 Soleil Fighter should be up on the pace and making his own luck. He was second in a race like this four starts ago and won over 1 1/8 miles at this track two runs back. No. 10 Beauty Alliance has hit peak form in recent runs, breaking through for his first win of the season off the back of a couple of good placings in strong races. 

Luke Middlebrook is a contributor at Idol Horse. After blogging about the sport for years, he spent eight years in Singapore as the resident expert at iRace Media, overseeing form and editorial content for racing in Hong Kong and Singapore. Coverage of the entire Hong Kong Thoroughbred season at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a sponsorship by the Hong Kong Jockey Club.