Hong Kong Tuesday morning: Picks, analysis, free PPs

Hong Kong's holiday week begins with Happy Valley on Tuesday morning at 5:40 a.m. EST. Free PPs are available at Horse Racing Nation. For more free handicapping information, visit the Hong Kong Jockey Club website.

Race 1: 8 Woodfire Champ, 3 Nebraskan, 6 Sky Song, 12 Ever Smart

Race 2: 12 Kasa Papa, 7 Absolute Awakened, 5 Prestige Ricky, 1 Noble Pursuit

Race 3: 10 Quick Contribution, 6 Ragga Bomb, 3 The Azure, 12 Shinkansen

Race 4: 1 Sugar Sugar, 8 Winning Money, 4 Giant Ballon, 5 Giddy Up

Race 5: 6 Winning Now, 7 Yee Cheong Spirit, 2 Fatal Blow, 3 California Blitz

Race 6: 4 Snowfield, 8 Charity Gain, 5 Turin Mascot, 2 Wrote A New Page

Race 7: 7 Absolute Lucky, 4 Genius Baby, 1 Fortune Whiskey, 8 Rewarding Buddy

Race 8: 11 Sports Legend, 3 Symbol Of Strength, 2 King Miles, 10 Perfect General

Race 9: 7 Regal Gem, 4 Huge Wave, 2 Steps Ahead, 3 Soleil Fighter

Race 1, Mercury Handicap

No. 8 Woodfire Champ returns fresh and has trialed well enough to suggest he’s ready to run a race. From post 1 he should be able to use his tactical speed to settle hard up on the pace and give himself every chance. No. 3 Nebraskan slides into Class 5 and several of his recent Class 4 efforts would measure up strongly at this level. Barrier 2 suits his pattern and this shapes as a genuine opportunity to finally break through. No. 6 Sky Song backs up quickly after an okay fourth over 1,000 meters last week and the rise to 1200m looks much more suitable. No. 12 Ever Smart continues to test the patience, still searching for a win after 23 attempts, but his latest third was a step in the right direction and he again looks set to receive every chance.

Race 2, Venus Handicap

No. 12 Kasa Papa may look to roll forward in a race lacking early pace and, if allowed to dictate, could prove hard to reel in as he has previously been able to pull off. No. 7 Absolute Awakened should appreciate landing a midfield draw after a forgetful run from the outside last time and his earlier third to Corleone suggests he’s trending the right way again. No. 5 Prestige Ricky has the widest gate to contend with but he has looked well suited in both runs at this track and trip, finishing third to Allcash on his first attempt before a luckless fifth last start when held up. That form reads well in this context. No. 1 Noble Pursuit is a class-dropper worth following now that he returns to suitable conditions, a two-time winner in this grade and at this course and distance, which immediately brings him into calculations.

Race 3, Venus Handicap, div 2

No. 10 Quick Contribution deserves another look after a run into eighth that was better than it reads. Blinkers went on first time, he was only fair away, settled back, and never enjoyed the best of trips, yet he still worked strongly late. He should be closer in transit this time from post 1 and looks ready to strike. No. 6 Ragga Bomb draws alongside in post 2 and has clearly turned a corner, producing his best effort yet when a close second to Samarkand after being forced wide mid-race. A handy trial since only adds confidence that he can build again. No. 3 The Azure is capable of featuring but needs things to fall into place, which hasn’t happened recently, including last time when drawn widest and set a difficult task before still finishing off well into seventh. No. 12 Shinkansen is the market watch resuming from a lengthy break.

Race 4, Jupiter Handicap

No. 1 Sugar Sugar is a class-dropper to side with. He sees Class 4 for the first time since January 2023 and that alone puts him right into contention. He may simply prove too good for this lot. No. 8 Winning Money will be hard to run down if allowed to dictate. He is fourth-up and arrives off back-to-back placings at this course and distance, doing plenty of work on pace in both runs but sticking on well. No. 4 Giant Ballon steps out for his fourth career start and showed promise on his first look at this track and trip last time. After an awkward jump and settling further back than ideal, he made late ground. That effort suggests he can take another step forward with added experience as a 3-year-old. No. 5 Giddy Up gets every chance to feature again from post 1.

Race 5, Jupiter Handicap, div 2

No. 6 Winning Now is a horse to start following, third-up and building nicely after an overlooked debut and an improved second-up fourth, backed up by a pleasing trial between runs. No. 7 Yee Cheong Spirit has plenty in his favor to bounce back after a poor last-start effort. He draws post 1 with Purton in the plate, and the addition of blinkers for the first time catches the eye. No. 2 Fatal Blow returned to the grade last start with a run full of merit. Forced to work early from post 10, he still fought and was only beaten a neck into fourth, a run that reads well given the circumstances. No. 3 California Blitz is an improving type who deserves to be followed after a deserved last-start win. He has taken a clear step forward this season, yet to finish out of the money in five runs.

Race 6, Saturn Handicap

No. 4 Snowfield is edging closer to a first Hong Kong win and his fast-finishing third over 2000m at Sha Tin two starts ago is the reference point. He was unsuited dropping back in trip last time yet still worked through the line strongly, and the rise to 2,200-meter here looks ideal. No. 8 Charity Gain has been kept to 1,800 meters in his last three runs which is his winning distance, but the farther trip now appeals more. His strong closing third at this track and distance four runs ago reads well. No. 5 Turin Mascot has slid down the ratings to a competitive mark and his record at this course and trip is hard to ignore, two wins from three attempts, which gives him genuine bounce-back claims. No. 2 Wrote A New Page shapes as the query at the distance, but his tactical versatility and consistent profile ensure he is in the mix.

Race 7, Jupiter Handicap, div 3

No. 7 Absolute Lucky was sent out at close to triple-figure odds last time and, from post 12, was always facing an uphill task. Despite that, he worked home well into seventh and that effort was better than it reads on paper. A lower draw this time should allow him to settle closer and he looks attractive at the odds. No. 4 Genius Baby has been a success story since switching to the Brett Crawford stable, winning stylishly on his second start for the yard, and he can be followed up on that win. No. 1 Fortune Whiskey is much better suited getting back to his proven track and distance after two all-weather runs, while his first-up effort here can be forgiven given the wide draw. No. 8 Rewarding Buddy continues to knock on the door and, with a favorable draw, should receive every chance to be right in the finish if good enough.

Race 8, Uranus Handicap

No. 11 Sports Legend looks well placed to show his best for the David Eustace stable. His form since the switch has been sound despite little going right, wide draws in his first two runs followed by an unsuited all-weather assignment, and this shapes as a far more suitable opportunity. No. 3 Symbol Of Strength hasn’t shown a great deal across four starts but is beginning to find his feet. His last-start tenth was better than it reads after he was held up and eased down late, still finishing only two and a half lengths from the winner. That effort hints at improvement to come. No. 2 King Miles is thriving since the addition of blinkers three runs ago, returning two wins and a second, and there’s no reason to knock his current form. No. 10 Perfect General steps up in class off an impressive Class 4 win where he overcame post 11.

Race 9, Neptune Handicap

No. 7 Regal Gem stretches beyond sprint trips for the first time after back-to-back wins over 1,200 meters. He’s been impressive doing it and a successful step up in distance would bring him into the Classic Mile conversation. No. 4 Huge Wave is better placed back to this trip after being unsuited over 1,800 meters last start where he raced wide without cover throughout and was never in it. He won two runs back at this distance, which brings him back into the play. No. 2 Steps Ahead is capable of lobbing on pace and making his own luck. He’s been knocking on the door all campaign with three placings from five runs. No. 3 Soleil Fighter always commands respect in races of this nature, bringing consistent form this prep and likely to be right up on the speed again.

Luke Middlebrook is a contributor at Idol Horse. After blogging about the sport for years, he spent eight years in Singapore as the resident expert at iRace Media, overseeing form and editorial content for racing in Hong Kong and Singapore. Coverage of the entire Hong Kong Thoroughbred season at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a sponsorship by the Hong Kong Jockey Club.