Hong Kong Trifecta Play for Champions Day card

Hong Kong's twin titans, Ka Ying Rising and Romantic Warrior, are both in action tonight for Champions Day. Sha Tin hosts this deep card beginning at 12:40 a.m. EDT Sunday, 9:40 p.m. PDT Saturday. Free past performances (PPs) are available at Horse Racing Nation as well as full card selections. For more free handicapping information, visit the Hong Kong Jockey Club website.

Race 11 - FWD INSURANCE CMB WING LUNG BANK HANDICAP - 6:10 a.m. EDT

Our model is forecasting both KA YING RISING (R5) and ROMANTIC WARRIOR (R9) to win easily at short odds. Therefore, we are turning our attention to the final race of the card, a Class 2 1,400-meter handicap loaded with talent, which promises to be an interesting handicapping and betting puzzle. 

Our AI model is outputting some interesting signals.  

First, we are projecting the pace to be fast, which may compromise both SALON S (no. 11) and to a lesser degree WINNING OVATION (no. 5) who are the likely first and second choice in the betting. Indeed, SALON S is projected as a vulnerable favorite (10-1 fair odds) and is likely to be pace compromised.  

Second, the top two ranked horses, PACKING HERMOD (no. 1) and LIGHT YEARS CHARM (no. 2) have speed figures (adjusted for weight) that fit this race and late pace figures that give them an advantage running into a fast early pace. 

Third, SIX PACK (no. 9), when adjusting the projected speed figure for carried weight (+1.5 pts = 99.6) and taking into consideration his projected late pace figures, looks extremely competitive breaking from the inside draw.

We propose a trifecta ticket that tries to beat the likely favorite, and leans on horses with projected speed and pace upgrades as well as projected to outperform their off odds. 

Ticket

$1 Trifecta 5,8,9,10 | 5,8,9,10,11 | 1,2,5,8,9,10,11,12 = $96

 Ticket Analysis

Combinations: 96

$1 Cost: $96.00 (only $19.20 for a $0.20 bet)

Expected Strike Rate: 24.1%

Expected Payout: $76 - $8,582

EV: +235.7%