Hong Kong Saturday night: Picks, analysis, PPs for Sha Tin

Sha Tin hosts a big night this week, with the return of Ka Ying Rising. The Everest winner is back on home soil to prep for another run in the Hong Kong Sprint (G1) next month. Saturday night's card features three Group 2 stakes, the Jockey Club Sprint, Jockey Club Mile and Jockey Club Cup, which features another return, Hong Kong Cup (G1) winner Romantic Warrior. Post time is 11:45 p.m. EST, 8:45 p.m. PST. Free PPs are available at Horse Racing Nation. For more free handicapping information, visit the Hong Kong Jockey Club website.

Race 1: 11 Made For Life, 4 All’s Well, 5 California Bay, 6 Jubilant Star

Race 2: 9 Sunny Q, 2 Bright Day, 3 Cheval Victorious, 10 Rainbow Seven

Race 3: 6 Nyx Gluck, 3 Raging Rapids, 1 Do Your Part, 10 World Hero

Race 4: 2 Stunning Peach, 5 Gentlemen Legacy, 7 Winning Wing, 8 Snowfield

Race 5: 7 Invincible Ibis, 2 Lucy In The Sky, 1 Gracious Express, 5 Sunny Da Best

Race 6: 1 Ka Ying Rising, 8 Tomodachi Kokoroe, 6 Fast Network, 3 Helios Express

Race 7: 7 My Wish, 2 Galaxy Patch, 13 Light Years Charm, 11 Encountered

Race 8: 2 Voyage Bubble, 1 Romantic Warrior, 4 Straight Arron, 6 Bundle Award

Race 9: 1 Public Attention, 8 Szeryng, 3 Star Rise, 5 Sky Joy

Race 10: 1 Brilliant Express, 2 Anode, 4 Master Of All, 3 Everyone’s Star

Race 1, Six-Furlong Handicap

No. 11 Made For Life debuts for the Mark Newnham stable and has shown enough in both Australian and local trials to suggest he can win first-up. From post 4 he maps to land in a sweet spot to give this a shake on debut. No. 4 All’s Well also draws for an ideal run from post 3. His first-up third to Jubilant Winner at this course and trip reads strongly, and while his second-up run at Happy Valley was only fair, the return to Sha Tin is a positive. No. 5 California Bay showed improvement last start when finishing hard into third with the blinkers applied. He is trending the right way. No. 6 Jubilant Star showed ability on debut with a close second, and though his second-up sixth was plain, he is still open to improvement. Barrier 13 is the knock.

Race 2, Seven-Furlong Handicap

No. 9 Sunny Q has returned in good order this season. He was luckless first-up, then won second-up, and followed that with a narrow third-up defeat. All three runs came at six furlongs, so the rise to seven furlongs is a fresh test, but he has performed at the trip before and post 4 gives him the right map. No. 2 Bright Day has found his rhythm since dropping into Class 4, producing a second to Emblazon before scoring his maiden win stylishly over this trip. The move to post 14, however, is a map negative. No. 3 Cheval Victorious appeals from a low draw. His last-start fifth behind Sunny Q had merit given the poor trip, and Hugh Bowman from post 2 sets up a kinder scenario. No. 10 Rainbow Seven adds blinkers after trialling well in them and is a candidate to improve.

Race 3, Seven-Furlong Handicap

No. 6 Nyx Gluck can run a race at odds if he enjoys any luck from post 13. He has had excuses in both career starts, most recently posted very wide yet still checking into fourth. Both runs were over six furlongs and the rise in trip now looks ideal, while a trial win between runs suggests improvement. No. 3 Raging Rapids gets a perfect map from post 1. His last-start fifth, in a fast-run race, was better than it appears and John Size has tightened him with two quick trials. No. 1 Do Your Part keeps knocking on the door with three placings from as many runs, always putting himself in the right spot. He remains a key player. No. 10 World Hero should settle handy from post 2 and will enjoy a far more favorable run than last start from gate 14 when fading late.

Race 4, 1 1/4-Mile Handicap

No. 2 Stunning Peach never quite delivered on early expectations, but his return run was a step in the right direction. He closed strongly into third over a mile, a trip short of his best, and now rises to 1 1/4 miles second-up with Purton back aboard. His trial between runs was encouraging. No. 5 Gentlemen Legacy maps well from post 4 and is worth forgiving for his last-start fourth as favorite. The race was run at a frantic tempo and he stuck on better than it appears on paper. No. 7 Winning Wing had conditions fall perfectly when scoring impressively last start, yet post 1 gives him the chance to settle much closer which keeps him a live chance again. No. 8 Snowfield is progressing the right way and his late-closing fourth on the all-weather last week hints that the rise in trip back on turf will suit.

Race 5, Seven-Furlong Handicap

No. 7 Invincible Ibis relished the rise in trip last start, finally shedding his maiden tag with a dominant two-length win that confirmed the talent he had hinted at in earlier placings. He has a big engine and plenty of upside, and while he now faces a fresh test rising to Class 3, this is not the strongest edition. He should be winning again. No. 2 Lucy In The Sky nearly stole the race from post 11 last start when rolling forward and only being collared late. A better draw gives Hugh Bowman far more flexibility, and he looks set to give another bold showing on the speed. No. 1 Gracious Express scored at big odds after a wide, tough run yet still found enough to win. Barrier 1 now offers every chance to repeat the dose. No. 5 Sunny Da Best will drift back from post 13 but owns a sharp turn of foot and will be chiming in late.

Race 6, The Jockey Club Sprint

No. 1 Ka Ying Rising returns to home soil off his emphatic Everest win and is on track for a Hong Kong Sprint defence in December. If David Hayes’ confident pre-race commentary is any indication, it should be business as usual for the world’s top-rated sprinter. No. 8 Tomodachi Kokoroe, his stablemate, has been a revelation since the one-eyed blinker was applied, rising from Class 2 to Group 2 with three wins from three starts this season. This, however, is a different test at set weights. No. 6 Fast Network maps to receive a far kinder run from post 2 after being forced too far back from a wide gate last start. Expect him to improve. No. 3 Helios Express needed the run first-up and will be more effective second-up as he builds toward December’s internationals. He can take a step forward here.

Race 7, The Jockey Club Mile

No. 7 My Wish has swept through two high-quality races this season, stamping himself the next top dog in the mile division. He now moves from handicaps into set-weights conditions, a fresh test, but on what he has produced so far he should continue progressing and strengthen his case for the Hong Kong Mile. No. 2 Galaxy Patch regularly falls victim to his own racing pattern. Barrier 2 and James McDonald give him the platform to secure a cleaner run than usual, and with it he can rebound into the finish. No. 13 Light Years Charm will drift back from post 11 but rising to the mile is exciting after his sharp second-up win over seven furlongs. He will be storming home late. No. 11 Encountered has thrived since joining Brett Crawford, not missing the frame across three runs and coming off a slick Group 3 Ladies’ Purse win. Barrier 1 sets up another soft run.

Race 8, The Jockey Club Cup

No. 2 Voyage Bubble is worth forgiving for his first-up 12th under handicap conditions. He was posted wide and weakened, but that run will bring him on and could provide a fitness edge over a resuming Romantic Warrior. The rise to 10 furlongs suits far better at this stage of his career and the switch to Purton is an important one. No. 1 Romantic Warrior returns from an injury-enforced layoff which is the knock. Everything else says he is ready but he still has to come out and do it. He is a renowned fresh performer, with his only first-up defeat coming in Australia when building toward the Cox Plate, and the low draw sets him up for the perfect run. No. 4 Straight Arron’s first-up fourth over an unsuitable mile was full of merit and blinkers on first time add interest. No. 6 Bundle Award peaks third-up rising to ten furlongs after two encouraging late-closing efforts.

Race 9, 1 1/4 Mile Handicap

No. 1 Public Attention is a high-profile Australian import who looks well prepared to deliver on debut. He has had four trials to tune up and each piece of work has been strong, suggesting he has acclimatised quickly. No. 8 Szeryng rises to Class 3 after an effortless first-up victory where he enjoyed the perfect run, and post 1 gives him every chance to secure the same soft map again. No. 3 Star Rise has made a sound start to his Hong Kong career. He closed off strongly for second on debut and was far from disgraced last start when finishing close up in fourth, and he maps well again from an inside gate. No. 5 Sky Joy will be overlooked from post 14 but continues to build a solid profile. His first-up second to Patch Of Stars reads very well and his trial since was sharp. He can run a race at odds.

Race 10, Six-Furlong Handicap

No. 1 Brilliant Express shapes as the one to beat. He is third-up, gets blinkers on for the first time after trialling well in them, and brings two encouraging get-back, run-on efforts that hint he’s ready. Barrier 1 gives him the perfect map to finally convert. No. 2 Anode is worth forgiving after a last-start failure from a wide draw where he mapped poorly. A better gate and James McDonald taking over give him the platform to rebound to his prior good form. No. 4 Master Of All looks to get a far kinder run from post 4 after drawing 14 last time, where he still boxed on for second despite covering plenty of ground. A softer on-pace trip boosts his chances. No. 3 Everyone’s Star keeps drawing wide but continues to race well, flashing home for second first-up, and as a lightly raced type he still has improvement to come. With any luck, he can feature again.

Luke Middlebrook is a contributor at Idol Horse. After blogging about the sport for years, he spent eight years in Singapore as the resident expert at iRace Media, overseeing form and editorial content for racing in Hong Kong and Singapore. Coverage of the entire Hong Kong Thoroughbred season at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a sponsorship by the Hong Kong Jockey Club.