Hong Kong Saturday: Picks, analysis, free PPs for Sha Tin

Sha Tin hosts the Hong Kong Classic Mile, the first in a series of races for 4-year-olds in Hong Kong, similar to the Triple Crown in the U.S. Hong Kong legends Able Friend, Golden Sixty and Romantic Warrior have all won this race in their march to immortality. Post time on Saturday night is 11:40 p.m. EST. Free PPs are available at Horse Racing Nation. For more free handicapping information, visit the Hong Kong Jockey Club website.

Race 1: 3 Bustling City, 1 Alsonso, 7 Leading Dragon, 13 Conspirator

Race 2: 1 Always Fluke, 6 General Smart, 7 Only U, 3 I P O Bros

Race 3: 1 Patch Of Theta, 6 Drombeg Banner, 5 Healthy Happy, 2 Tomodachi Kokoroe

Race 4: 6 Crossborderdude, 10 Warriors Dream, 4 Call Me Success, 8 Merlion

Race 5: 1 Smart Golf, 12 Happy Shooter, 3 Cloud Nine, 13 Decision Link

Race 6: 3 Alpha Strike, 1 We Are Hero, 10 Thunder Kit, 5 Together We Value

Race 7: 3 The Golden Knight, 2 Robot Star, 1 Blazing Wukong, 7 Smart Fat Cat

Race 8: 6 Infinite Resolve, 2 Little Paradise, 3 Invincible Ibis, 1 Sagacious Life

Race 9: 6 Thousand Spirit, 1 Lunar Dash, 2 Star Satyr, 3 Nyx Gluck

Race 10: 10 California Waves, 4 Seraph Gabriel, 6 Wrote A New Page, 9 The Red Hare

Race 11: 6 Super Express, 3 Everyone’s Star, 2 Six Pack, 12 Without Compare

Race 1 - Clear Water Bay Handicap

No. 3 Bustling City is a promising debutant for David Hayes and he arrives unbeaten across four Hong Kong trials, plus one in New Zealand pre-import. His work has been full of promise and he looks capable of carrying that record straight to race day under Zac Purton. No. 1 Alsonso has the race experience in a field packed with first-starters and that can count for plenty. He is still chasing the win, but the trial win was a good lead-in and the latest run came with a vet excuse. No. 7 Leading Dragon drew the wrong part of the track on debut last week and still stuck on well for fifth. Post 12 gives him a far better map. No. 13 Conspirator has had two encouraging runs at the track and trip and post 14 is also a positive for the straight.

Race 2 - Kiu Tsui Handicap

No. 1 Always Fluke resumes off a 329-day spell and he is the swing horse in an open class 5. He lands post 1 for his first look in the grade and that soft run on the rail can put him in the finish at odds. No. 6 General Smart has been lifting since the class drop and his last-start sixth reads better than it looks after he was hemmed up late and not beaten far. No. 7 Only U flashed home into second on the all-weather last time and the switch back to turf is a plus. Post 2 gives him the ideal map. No. 3 I P O Bros went off the favorite last time and was ridden handy from an inside draw, but he ran into traffic when it mattered. He has had enough in his recent runs to stick, and he may represent better value this time.

Race 3 - Mirs Bay Handicap

No. 1 Patch Of Theta has been stuck with awkward draws all season and has been taking on stronger races than this. He gets a kinder set-up in a small field and comes in off a fast-finishing third to Storm Rider. A tidy trial between runs keeps him ticking over and post 2 should have Hugh Bowman in the firing line. No. 6 Drombeg Banner looks the likely leader in a field of six and that can count for plenty. He reunites with Andrea Atzeni, who knows him well, and he can give a sight. No. 5 Healthy Happy also has the early speed to take up a forward role, as shown when he caused an upset four runs ago, scoring by a neck over Steps Ahead. No. 2 Tomodachi Kokoroe backs up quickly and this is a more suitable assignment than recent starts.

Race 4 - Lam Tsuen Handicap

No. 6 Crossborderdude brings back-to-back thirds over seven furlongs into this, looming like the winner before peaking late and being edged out last time. The drop back to six furlongs looks suitable and he should be right in it again. No. 10 Warriors Dream has lifted since joining the Brett Crawford stable and he is trending the right way. No. 4 Call Me Success had little go his way on debut and the seventh reads worse than it should. He can take a step forward second-up with that experience under his belt. No. 8 Merlion makes his debut for the Douglas Whyte stable and post 1 gives him the chance to land in the right spot under Hugh Bowman. His trial work has been a little mixed, but the map looks kind enough for a first-starter in a moderate race.

Race 5 - Lam Tsuen Handicap, div 2

No. 1 Smart Golf is a horse on the way up. He had an excuse on debut when fifth over five furlongs, then second-up he stepped to six furlongs and made it a one-way street from post 11, leading throughout and beating Speedy Smartie, who has since franked the form. No. 12 Happy Shooter is well placed from post 1. He drew post 12 second-up, rolled forward, and still held on for second at long odds, and has trialed well between runs. He is a horse ready to win. No. 3 Cloud Nine can be forgiven for his last-start seventh after being badly checked in the straight, which ended his chances on the spot, and he is worth another chance. No. 13 Decision Link is the other one to keep safe after joining the Caspar Fownes stable. His form at the track and trip reads well enough and his trials have been sound.

Race 6 - Hoi Ha Handicap

No. 3 Alpha Strike is best forgiven for last time over six furlongs at Sha Tin when he worked hard early to sit outside the leader in a fast-run race and then folded late. He is better suited back on the straight where he won on debut and post 9 is a decent draw for the straight course. No. 1 We Are Hero draws well in post 11 and he drops back into class 3, which is where most of his best runs have been. The set-up ticks plenty of boxes. No. 10 Thunder Kit finished ninth on debut but he was held up just as he was building into his run. He can take a step forward second-up. No. 5 Together We Value has trialed well ahead of debut and the Zac Purton booking adds confidence that he is ready to show up straight away, but his post and map concern.

Race 7 - Long Valley Handicap

No. 3 The Golden Knight looks to have a win waiting for him. He went close behind Flow Water Flow last time after being held up at a crucial stage, and a clearer run when it matters can tip him over the line. No. 2 Robot Star is a horse on the up after winning well at his third start and the mile is the next test, but his profile suggests there is more to come. No. 1 Blazing Wukong drops back into class 4 after a few honest class 3 efforts where luck was against. He is right back into calculations now but post 12 might be a slight query. No. 7 Smart Fat Cat has been edging towards a breakthrough and he can take another step in the right direction with James McDonald engaged to ride. 

Race 8 - The Hong Kong Classic Mile

No. 6 Infinite Resolve has come back a better horse this preparation and he may still be flying under the radar. His last-start second to Little Paradise had plenty in it, settling back before letting down to finish a length off, and post 3 looks to set up the perfect map this time. No. 2 Little Paradise remains one of the hardest to beat after winning his first class 2 test in style to make it five wins from eight starts. No. 3 Invincible Ibis is another major player after going two-from-two at this track and trip in his last two runs, improving each time he steps out. No. 1 Sagacious Life commands respect as the highest-rated runner at set weights. He has won two of three Hong Kong starts and his class 2 form at the track and trip reads strongly.

Race 9 - Robin's Nest Handicap

No. 6 Thousand Spirit gave himself too much to do last time after bounding out and losing ground, yet he still wound up well into third. A cleaner jump can see him land much closer in a race that lacks tempo and that makes a big difference to his chances. No. 1 Lunar Dash also looks set to get the right run on speed and the stable switch to Brett Crawford is a positive, given how well those transfers have been going. No. 2 Star Satyr usually gets back, but he rarely runs a poor race in this grade and a kinder gate can help him settle closer than last time. No. 3 Nyx Gluck reunites with James McDonald, which is a positive after he won on him two starts ago. He did not get the smoothest of runs when fifth last time but the set-up is better today.

Race 10 - Kat O Handicap

No. 10 California Waves was runner-up to The Red Hare two runs ago, then last time he did it the hard way from post 12, caught wide without cover, and finished two and a half lengths of Invincible Ibis. Post 1 changes everything and gives him a clear map upgrade. No. 4 Seraph Gabriel is best forgiven for his debut 11th, where plenty went wrong in running. A good trial since suggests he has come through it well and second-up he can take a step forward. No. 6 Wrote A New Page is a stable-switch runner for Caspar Fownes and his trial, while quiet, caught the eye. No. 9 The Red Hare was rewarded for consistency two runs ago when winning well, then last time he stepped up to the mile and never got a clear until late, finishing third to Invincible Ibis. The drop back in trip suits.

Race 11 - Yan Chau Tong Handicap

No. 6 Super Express is a four-year-old with plenty of upside. He resumed from a seven-month break over this track and trip, drew post 12, and while he went under as an odds-on favorite, the second was still a promising return. He will strip fitter and is hard to go past. No. 3 Everyone’s Star was unsuited by the mile last time. The drop back in trip suits and his form at this distance has been solid since his breakthrough win last April. No. 2 Six Pack broke through last start after making full use of a low draw and he did it with enough authority to suggest he can be competitive again. No. 12 Without Compare ran a slashing third on debut after being forced back early from a wide draw. Post 3 gives him the chance to hold a closer spot and his trial between runs was sound.

Luke Middlebrook is a contributor at Idol Horse. After blogging about the sport for years, he spent eight years in Singapore as the resident expert at iRace Media, overseeing form and editorial content for racing in Hong Kong and Singapore. Coverage of the entire Hong Kong Thoroughbred season at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a sponsorship by the Hong Kong Jockey Club.