Hong Kong International Races: Picks, analysis, free PPs

Sha Tin hosts the Hong Kong International Races, four Group 1s that showcase the best of the world: Hong Kong Cup, Hong Kong Vase, Hong Kong Mile & Hong Kong Sprint. Post time Saturday is 11:25 p.m. EST. Free PPs are available at Horse Racing Nation. For more free handicapping information, visit the Hong Kong Jockey Club website.

Race 1: 10 Rising Phoenix, 1 Endued, 8 Jubilation For All, 2 Thousand Spirit

Race 2: 8 Armour War Eagle, 1 Circuit Grand Slam, 3 Geneva, 6 Refusetobeenglish

Race 3: 6 Jubilant Star, 1 Majestic Valour, 2 Mabubu, 13 Speedy Smartie

Race 4: 2 Al Riffa, 5 Sosie, 3 Giavellotto, 1 Los Angeles

Race 5: 1 Ka Ying Rising, 4 Helios Express, 2 Satono Reve, 6 Fast Network

Race 6: 2 Gentlemen Legacy, 3 Pope Cody, 13 The Auspicious, 14 Supreme Mastermind

Race 7: 10 My Wish, 1 Soul Rush, 2 Voyage Bubble, 14 Embroidery

Race 8: 1 Romantic Warrior, 2 Bellagio Opera, 7 Quisisana, 5 Straight Arron

Race 9: 3 Star Rise, 2 Everyone’s Star, 1 Juneau Pride, 4 Charming Legend

Race 10: 12 Public Attention, 1 Beauty Eternal, 4 Dancing Code, 8 Aeris Nova

Race 1 - Fairy King Prawn Handicap

No. 10 Rising Phoenix finally gets the right set of conditions with a shift to Sha Tin and a rise to seven furlongs after two runs that read poorly but were far better than they looked. From an inside gate with Purton taking over, he is entitled to take a big step forward. No. 1 Endued is a fascinating runner fresh for the John Size stable. His form was trending upward when last seen and although post 12 is no help, remaining in class 4 gives him every chance to make an impact with the stable switch. No. 8 Jubilation For All is a sneaky improver. His first-up run was much better than the ninth placing suggests after he was hemmed up until late, and his encouraging trial since hints at a forward move at odds. No. 2 Thousand Spirit adapted well to the class drop, controlling the race last start before being collared late.

Race 2 - Snow Fairy Handicap

No. 8 Armour War Eagle comes back to six furlongs which may look a query at first glance, but a truer tempo could be exactly what he needs after a sequence of luckless, better-than-it-reads efforts. Barrier 1 finally gives him the platform to work with. No. 1 Circuit Grand Slam caused a major upset on debut with a sweeping last-to-first win, and while he now needs to confirm it was no fluke, his trial since suggests it wasn’t. No. 3 Geneva resumes after a seven-month injury break for back surgery but his trials have been consistently good and he has always profiled as a horse with upside. No. 6 Refusetobeenglish is progressing well with more racing after a luckless sixth two back and a close fourth last start. A decent tick-over trial keeps him in the conversation as an improving type.

Race 3 - Silent Witness Handicap

No. 6 Jubilant Star looks set to break through fourth-up. He drew 13 last start, was dragged back to find cover, and launched late to finish third against the race shape. He draws wide in 11, but a stronger tempo should help, and James McDonald remaining aboard is a key pointer. No. 1 Majestic Valour maps well from post 7 and can look to replicate his debut win over Ever Luck, a performance backed up by a stack of handy trials that stamped him as a horse with ability. No. 2 Mabubu was an authoritative debut winner when leading throughout from post 1. The shift to post 12 now is the query, though he seems to have plenty of upside. No. 13 Speedy Smartie is thriving since joining Brett Crawford with two wins and two seconds in class 5, and although this is deeper, the drop in weight keeps him in the conversation.

Race 4 - The Hong Kong Vase

No. 2 Al Riffa was far from disgraced in the Melbourne Cup, giving away plenty of ground under top weight yet still closing strongly for seventh. His Irish St Leger and Curragh Cup wins showcase his talent and at 1 1/2 miles he owns a Grosser Preis von Berlin (G1) victory, and a Hardwicke (G2) second to Rebel’s Romance. No. 5 Sosie profiles well after an excellent third to Daryz in the Arc (G1), having also shaped well behind Byzantine Dream in the Prix Foy (G2), and his Eclipse (G1) flop came when taken on in front. No. 3 Giavellotto is the defending Vase champion and looks on song again after a September Stakes (G3) win and a very good Arc fourth on ground softer than he prefers. No. 1 Los Angeles, the Irish Derby (G1) winner, hasn’t been at his peak lately but wasn’t disgraced in the Prix Foy before failing to handle Arc conditions.

Race 5 - The Hong Kong Sprint

No. 1 Ka Ying Rising aims to become the seventh dual winner of the Sprint and is in fearsome order. Fresh off his historic Everest (G1) victory in Australia, the world’s highest-rated sprinter returned to Sha Tin and unleashed arguably his most dazzling display yet in the Jockey Club Sprint (G2). No. 4 Helios Express took the expected step forward second-up when third in that same lead-up and shapes to replicate his runner-up finish in this race last year. No. 2 Satono Reve, third here twelve months ago, went on to win the Takamatsunomiya Kinen (G1), chased Ka Ying Rising home in the Chairman’s Sprint Prize (G1), finished second at Royal Ascot to Lazzat, and arrives off a promising fourth in the Sprinters Stakes (G1). No. 6 Fast Network enhanced his profile in the Jockey Club Sprint, finishing a clear second to Ka Ying Rising in his strongest effort yet.

Race 6 - Jim and Tonic Handicap

No. 2 Gentlemen Legacy brings the right profile into this. His fourth over 10 furlongs last start came after being forced into an energy-sapping mid-race move that left him vulnerable late, yet he still stuck on well. Reuniting with Purton is a positive, even if the drop back in distance isn’t. No. 3 Pope Cody has held his form since breaking through four starts ago. The race shape has been against him in his last two runs, but he has still produced strong efforts. No. 13 The Auspicious will drift back from post 10 but that is his usual pattern. Though untried at the trip, his swift turn of foot should put him in the finish. No. 14 Supreme Mastermind has been running well under big weights in class 4 and now back up into class 3 with a weight drop and his form trending the right way, he looks a key player.

Race 7 - The Hong Kong Mile

No. 10 My Wish gets his chance at Group 1 glory with an ideal set-up from post 2 to settle in the one-one. He was beaten as the short favorite in the Jockey Club Mile (G2) but the hot tempo and his racing manners worked against him, yet he still stuck on and was only a length away. No. 1 Soul Rush returns after finishing second in this race last year and while he again draws wide, his form this campaign has been rock solid and he is clearly good enough to win this. No. 2 Voyage Bubble also draws wide as he looks to defend his title, but with Purton aboard he should still get his chance. No. 14 Embroidery adds serious intrigue as Japan’s star filly taking on Sha Tin for the first time. A mile here is a very different contest to what she is used to, but her profile is hard to ignore.

Race 8 - The Hong Kong Cup

No. 1 Romantic Warrior made history last year as the first horse to win three editions of this race and he is well placed to extend that record in 2025 after his sensational injury-comeback victory in the Jockey Club Cup (G2). No. 2 Bellagio Opera brings proven top-level credentials, resuming from an Arima Kinen (G1) fourth to win the Osaka Hai (G1) back-to-back before second in the Takarazuka Kinen (G1). No. 7 Quisisana was an authoritative Prix Jean Romanet (G1) winner before two credible efforts over further in the Arc and British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes (G1), and the return to 10 furlongs looks a strong plus. No. 5 Straight Arron continues to run well at the top level with honest runs in the Sha Tin Trophy (G2) and Jockey Club Cup, and finishing a fourth and fifth, respectively, in the 2023 and 2024 Hong Kong Cup (G1) keep him in the conversation.

Race 9 - Ouija Board Handicap

No. 3 Star Rise is ready to win. Fourth-up in Hong Kong, he arrives off a luckless fourth where he was badly held up until after the final sixteenth and only got clear once the race was over. Post 2 gives him an ideal map as he stretches to seven furlongs for the first time. No. 2 Everyone’s Star makes a very similar case, also ready to win after two strong runs from wide draws this campaign. Last start he was third in a slowly run race, and being well proven at the trip may give him a slight edge. No. 1 Juneau Pride should be ready to peak third-up, though he again faces a wide draw in post 13. Ryan Moore can offset that. No. 4 Charming Legend resumes for the Caspar Fownes yard and looked a horse with upside last season. He is not to be discounted.

Race 10 - Highland Reel Handicap

No. 12 Public Attention can announce himself as a genuine classic series contender with a breakthrough win second-up in Hong Kong. He was an excellent debut second over six furlongs, has trialed very well between runs, and the big weight drop rising into class 2 stands him as the one to beat. No. 1 Beauty Eternal needs to find a sharp lift in form but this is the weakest race he has contested for some time. His recent trial was easily one of his best pieces of work this season which points to a rebound. No. 4 Dancing Code draws ideally in post 1 where he maps for the perfect run to suit his pattern. He is consistently around the finish and the return to seven furlongs looks timely. No. 8 Aeris Nova likely drifts back from post 12 but his form is outstanding with consecutive placings to smart types Light Years Charm and Patch Of Stars.

Luke Middlebrook is a contributor at Idol Horse. After blogging about the sport for years, he spent eight years in Singapore as the resident expert at iRace Media, overseeing form and editorial content for racing in Hong Kong and Singapore. Coverage of the entire Hong Kong Thoroughbred season at Horse Racing Nation is made possible through a sponsorship by the Hong Kong Jockey Club.