Holy Bull fair odds: Big names create value in Derby prep

The depth of talent in this year's Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes on Saturday at Gulfstream Park has stoked comparisons to 2006, when Barbaro was the last horse to complete the Holy Bull-Kentucky Derby double.

But my handicapping of the race leads to comparisons of another Kentucky Derby winner out of the Holy Bull: Funny Cide in 2003.

Now, granted, Funny Cide finished fifth to Offlee Wild in that year's Holy Bull, but he did go on to win the Derby and Preakness that year. He also entered the Holy Bull as an undefeated New York-bred who won the Sleepy Hollow Stakes to cap his 2-year-old season.

Holy Bull: Odds and analysis for Kentucky Derby prep

You know who else is an undefeated New York-bred who won the Sleepy Hollow to cap his 2-year-old season? Bravaro, Stephanie Baltzan's homebred Upstart colt who just exploded in that stakes win after racing five wide in a one-turn mile. Now, this step up to 1 1/16 miles in both his 3-year-old and two-turn debuts will certainly be a challenge from post 8. But at the expected price against known names, he's the one I want to gamble on most.

That was a fast pace he pressed last out while still coming home in good time. If jockey Tyler Gaffalione can get a good forward position, then it might be his race to lose with a far-turn blitz similar to what we saw in the Sleepy Hollow. Gaffalione is up for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., and if that tandem sounds familiar it's because they just won the Pegasus World Cup (G1) with Skippylongstocking.

Bravaro is not the most likely winner of this race, just my projected best bet. Another solid play could be Global Aviator, who won his debut despite a sluggish start. The number came back fast, too, and this horse is going to be no less than fourth choice. If there's improvement second time out with a clean break and no problem with the added distance, he's dangerous.

Cannoneer is understandably the favorite here off a scintillating performance to close out the Churchill Downs fall meeting. Trainer Brad Cox debuted this $1.75 million purchase in early June to great fanfare (1-2 against six others), and he disappointed in that spot but came back to live up to the hype. He might just be better than these, and I will look at exactas with him, Bravaro and Global Aviator.

Incredibolt and Nearly are two I'm willing to let beat me at the expected prices. Incredibolt might be left with too much to do on this configuration, even with the rail draw. Nearly exploded with a huge number in his last, and I am surprised to see trainer Todd Pletcher wheeling back on four weeks after such a clear lifetime top. One could just as easily read that as confidence, but at the expected price I have to play for a bounce.