Holy Bull fair odds: Ferocious is a bet-against in Ky. Derby prep

Ferocious has never run a bad race, and his presence in the Grade 3 Holy Bull on Saturday at Gulfstream Park as the morning-line favorite in his 3-year-old debut certainly adds spice to the proceedings. More importantly for bettors, he adds value, as I fully expect him to be an underlay against these six rivals.

His debut was sparkling, running off the screen at Saratoga before finishing second behind Chancer McPatrick and East Avenue in a pair of Grade 1 races. Then came the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and a trip west, where he finished a pace-compromised fifth while running on strongly at the end.

As I said from the jump, they're all good races, but none of them that really make me want to take a short price here against a couple of recent maiden winners with solid figures.

Tappan Street debuted five weeks ago at Gulfstream, pressing the pace and edging away to win by 1 3/4 lengths in a fast time. It was another four lengths back to third and 2 3/4 lengths back to fourth in a 12-horse field.

Burnham Square needed his third start to bust through with a big win, but boy howdy did he with a nine-length score against six overmatched rivals. It was another 7 3/4 lengths back to third for a 16 3/4-length spread between first and third. There are mixed messages here given the maiden-claiming debut, but as my third-likeliest winner here, I expect Burnham Square to be the value.

None of the others really grab me. Guns Loaded certainly could steal it on the front end, but I'm bearish on getting my 7-1 fair odds price considering the recent stakes win and presence of Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle. That said, for multi-race purposes, it is definitely more prudent to use Guns Loaded than Ferocious, and I think tossing the favorite allows us to go three deep here.