Holy Bull: Odds and analysis for Kentucky Derby prep

Saturday’s Grade 3, $250,000 Holy Bull is the first of three stops on the Gulfstream Park road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby. As an official Derby prep race, 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points are available to the top five eligible finishers. Nine 3-year-olds drew into the field for the 1 1/16-mile race, but only seven are expected to run.

The anticipated runners include only one, Incredibolt, who has Derby trail experience, and he won the Street Sense (G3) to earn 10 qualifying points. Two others have stakes experience, one stakes-placed in a race for Florida-breds and second in the Mucho Macho Man against open company and the other a winner of a New York-bred stakes.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Holy Bull with morning-line odds from Brian Zipse of the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Holy Bull is scheduled as race 12 of 12, with post time set for 5:45 p.m. EST.

1. Incredibolt, 3-1. Bolt d’Oro – Riley Mott / Jaime Torres – 3: 2-0-0 - $196,181. Incredibolt was a maiden winner in his second try when he went a mile at Churchill Downs in September as the 2-1 favorite. He drew off to win by two lengths after stalking the pace. He moved up to the Kentucky Derby trail to win the Street Sense (G3) with a last-to-first trip against a field of seven going two turns in October and earned 10 Derby points. He resumed training at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida. Top pick.

2. Roger That Dana, 20-1. Awesome Slew – Luis Ramirez / Renzo Rojas – 3: 1-1-1 - $103,200. Roger That Dana is a Florida-bred who began his career with a front-end victory in October against a field of eight state-breds by three lengths. He stretched out to two turns in a Florida Stallion Series stakes and again set the pace but this time was a distant third-place finisher. In the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream he raced from off the pace for the first time and finished second in the one-turn mile while racing on the wrong lead down the stretch. Live long shot.

3. Project Ace, 15-1. War of Will – Dale Romans / Corey Lanerie – 3: 1-1-1 - $77,245. Project Ace raced in Kentucky three times as a 2-year-old. He needed three tries to get his maiden victory, which happened at Churchill in November when he defeated a field of seven by a head with a last-to-first rally. All three races were restricted to an auction price of $65,000 or less. He resumed training at Gulfstream in December. Toss.

4. Global Aviator, 12-1. Global Campaign – Rohan Crichton / Joe Bravo – 1: 1-0-0 - $24,000. Global Aviator won his only start, which was at Gulfstream in November against a field of six. He broke slowly and rallied from the back to win by a neck going six furlongs. Veteran rider Joe Bravo stays on board. Toss.

5. Cannoneer, 2-1. Into Mischief – Brad Cox / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 2: 1-0-1 - $81,300. Cannoneer needed two tries to break his maiden. He was an early starter for Brad Cox in June at Churchill as an odds-on favorite, and he set the pace and faded to third. He came back in November as the favorite in a field of 12 in Kentucky and overwhelmed that group by more than seven lengths while racing on the lead every step of the way. Both Cox and Ortiz are looking for their first wins in the Holy Bull. Win contender.

6. Buetane, Scratch. Tiz the Law – Bob Baffert / Joel Rosario – 3: 1-2-0 - $148,000. Flight from California was cancelled.

7. Nearly, 9-5. Not This Time – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 3: 2-0-0 - $78,950. Nearly made his first start at Aqueduct in October and finished last after he steadied at the quarter pole at 7-1. He shipped to Florida, where he broke his maiden against Florida-breds when he drew off to win against a field of eight by more than nine lengths. In January, Lasix was added as he beat a field of four in an allowance by five lengths after a stalking trip. Hall of Famer John Velazquez won the Holy Bull in 1997, and Todd Pletcher won this race in 2012 and 2018. Win contender.

8. Bravaro, 8-1. Upstart – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Tyler Gaffalione – 2: 2-0-0 - $154,000. Bravaro won both of his starts at Aqueduct against New York-breds. He beat a full field in September going six furlongs and then went a one-turn mile in October to win the Sleepy Hollow in a field of six as an odds-on favorite. He has been training in Florida since December to prepare for this challenge. Use underneath.

9. Game for It, Scratch. Known Agenda – Chad Summers / Junior Alvarado – 1: 1-0-0 - $38,500. He will run in the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 7.

Summary: With the expected scratches of Buetane and Game for It, Cannoneer might have a pace advantage that could make him one of the favorites as he tries two turns for the first time for trainer Brad Cox. But Incredibolt has an experience edge as the only 3-year-old in this field who has a start and a victory on the Kentucky Derby trail. The morning line shows the Riley Mott trainee as a possible 3-1 third choice behind Cannoneer and Nearly from Todd Pletcher. Thus, Incredibolt will be my top pick in the Holy Bull.