Holy Bull 2024: Odds, analysis for Kentucky Derby prep
Saturday’s Grade 3, $250,000 Holy Bull is the first of three stops on the Gulfstream Park road to Kentucky Derby 2024, and 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points are available to the top five eligible finishers.
The 1 1/16-mile stakes features the 2024 debut of Fierceness, last year’s 2-year-old champion and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Recent winners of the Holy Bull include White Abarrio, who won this Derby prep in 2022 and the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic. From 2020, Tiz the Law went on to Grade 1 victories in the Belmont Stakes and the Travers. Successful sires who won the Holy Bull include Audible in 2018, Upstart in 2015, Cairo Prince in 2014 and Dialed In in 2011. The most recent Kentucky Derby winner was Barbaro in 2006.
Here are the odds and analysis for the Holy Bull with a morning line from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Holy Bull is scheduled as the final race on a 12-race card with post time set for 5:48 p.m. EST.
1. Hades, 15-1. Awesome Slew – Joe Orseno / Paco Lopez – 2: 2-0-0 - $63,100. The Florida-bred is one of two horses in the field who won both of his starts. Hades won a $50,000 maiden claimer at Gulfstream at 2-1 and then came back in three weeks to win a state-bred allowance by eight lengths going seven furlongs. That victory earned the third highest speed figure among these 3-year-olds. He will be hard pressed to stay unbeaten against this field. Toss.
2. Inveigled, 10-1. Enticed – Jane Cibelli / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 5: 2-1-1 - $100,500. Four horses in the field made their most recent start in the Jan. 1 Mucho Macho Man, which serves as the local prep race for the Holy Bull. This Indiana-bred finished fourth that day after having won an allowance at Gulfstream. Before moving to Florida for the winter, Inveigled broke his maiden at Laurel Park by eight lengths and then was second in the James F. Lewis Stakes at the Maryland track. Toss.
3. Otello, 5-1. Curlin – Christophe Clement / Luis Saez – 2: 2-0-0 - $138,820. Otello broke his maiden at first asking at Aqueduct in November and then trained at Payson Park in Florida prior to his half-length victory in the Mucho Macho Man as the 8-5 favorite. Both of his races were in one-turn miles where he rallied from fifth to win. Otello is the impeccably bred son of Curlin and the multi-graded stakes winning mare Isabella Sings. Second choice.
4. Dancing Groom, 15-1. Vino Rosso – Antonio Sano / Junior Alvarado – 4: 1-0-1 - $122,132. Dancing Groom earned 3 Kentucky Derby points when he finished a distant third in the Champagne (G1) after breaking his maiden at Saratoga by five lengths. Last seen, Dancing Groom was sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in November. He returned to training at Gulfstream, and blinkers go on now. Use underneath.
5. No More Time, 12-1. Not This Time – Jose D’Angelo / Jose Ortiz – 3: 1-1-0 - $36,780. No More Time broke his maiden in his second start as the favorite at Gulfstream by more than six lengths going a mile in October. He was away from the races until he finished fifth in the Mucho Macho Man after a troubled trip at 2-1. Toss.
6. Domestic Product, 8-1. Practical Joke – Chad Brown / Tyler Gaffalione – 3: 1-0-0 - $55,200. Domestic Product made all three of his starts in New York. After a fifth in his debut at Saratoga, he stretched out to nine furlongs and beat a field of eight with a front-end effort by more than four lengths. He came up empty on a muddy and sealed track when he moved onto the Derby trail in the Remsen (G3) and finished seventh in a strong field. He trained in Florida, ships back up to Aqueduct and blinkers come off. Use underneath.
7. Fierceness, 3-5. City of Light– Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 3: 2-0-0 - $1,102,750. Fierceness got 30 Derby points from his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and earned the 2-year-old male division championship. His two career victories were by a combined margin of more than 17 lengths and got speed figures that tower over any numbers earned by the other horses in the field. Since the Breeders’ Cup, Fierceness stayed in training with the Holy Bull as a target. A recent bullet five-furlong workout showed his readiness. The projectors shows that Fierceness can control the pace. Top choice.
8. Sea Streak, 12-1. Sea Wizard – Eddie Owens Jr. / Luca Panici – 4: 1-2-1 - $105,770. This New Jersey-bred debuted in a stakes race at 2-1 where he ran second behind a talented 2-year-old who won his next start. Sea Streak broke his maiden at Aqueduct by close to five lengths rallying late after a slow start. Moving to Gulfstream, he was second in an allowance and third in the Mucho Macho Man after setting the pace. Use underneath.
Summary: The Holy Bull features the 2-year-old champion against a field that has only one other stakes winner. Fierceness towers over this group of Derby hopefuls. Even as an odds-on favorite, he is the top choice.
The betting decision is which horses to use to complete the Holy Bull exacta. Mucho Macho Man winner Otello is the obvious choice. Domestic Product has shown that he can handle the two-turn distance and will be running at the end as the third choice. I’ll give him a pass for the poor effort on a muddy Aqueduct track in the Remsen.